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本研究利用现代人口和环境因子数据,通过地理探测器分析辨识了人口分布的显著影响因子,进而构建了基于随机森林回归算法的人口空间分布模型,最后以史学界考订的历史人口数据为基础,重建了1776~1953年6个时间断面中国传统农区10km×10km分辨率的人口空间分布,并分析了人口分布的时空变化特征.研究发现:(1)显著影响中国传统农区县域之间人口密度差异的主要环境因子包括海拔、坡度、地势起伏度、距地区(州、府)级城市与省会城市的远近、距河流远近及气候湿润指数.(2)利用2000年传统农区1934个县级人口及上述环境因子数据,基于随机森林回归算法构建的人口空间分布模型的方差解释量(R2)为0.81,88.4%的县(区)的模型预测误差小于50%.(3)1776~1953年研究区人口总体呈增加趋势,1851年之前主要表现为长三角地区人口持续增长,该地区500人/km2以上的网格数由292增至683个;1851~1953年则以多地区人口普遍增加为主要特征,华北平原500人/km2以上的网格数由36增至88个,珠江三角洲地区由4增至35个.各时期人口分布的空间聚集特征不一,其成因涉及经济重心转移、传统观念、战乱、灾荒、移民政策等多方面.(4)本文重建与HYDE数据集在数据源、环境因子遴选和建模方法上均有所不同,与本文重建结果相比,1776~1851年HYDE的人口总体上东部偏少,西部偏多,1851年后城镇偏多,乡村偏少. 相似文献
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过去百年青海和西藏耕地空间格局重建及其时空变化 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
网格化的历史土地利用/覆被数据集,可为历史气候变化和碳循环研究提供基础数据。本文估算了1910年,并订正了1950-2000年青海和西藏的省域耕地面积数据;基于现代耕地空间格局,量化了海拔高程和地面坡度与耕地空间分布之间的关系,构建了历史耕地网格化重建模型。将1910、1960、1980和2000年的省域耕地面积数据带入网格化重建模型,得到了4个时间断面的耕地空间格局。结果表明:青藏两省耕地面积1910-1950年稳定,1950-1980年快速增加,1980-2000年基本稳定,略有降低。就空间格局而言,1960-1980年,河湟谷地和"一江两河"地区土地开垦范围的扩张和垦殖强度的增长在过去百年最为明显。模型检验表明,模型重建的2000年耕地空间格局与2000年遥感数据相关系数达0.92。 相似文献
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北宋中期耕地面积及其空间分布格局重建(英文) 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
To understand historical human-induced land cover change and its climatic effects, it is necessary to create historical land use datasets with explicit spatial information. Using the taxes-cropland area and number of families compiled from historical documents, we esti-mated the real cropland area and populations within each Lu (a province-level political region in the Northern Song Dynasty) in the mid-Northern Song Dynasty (AD1004-1085). The es-timations were accomplished through analyzing the contemporary policies of tax, population and agricultural development. Then, we converted the political region-based cropland area to geographically explicit grid cell-based fractional cropland at the cell size of 60 km by 60 km. The conversion was based on calculating cultivation suitability of each grid cell using the topographic slope, altitude and population density as the independent variables. As a result, the total area of cropland within the Northern Song territory in the 1070s was estimated to be about 720 million mu (Chinese area unit, 1 mu = 666.7 m2), of which 40.1% and 59.9% oc-curred in the north and south respectively. The population was estimated to be about 87.2 million, of which 38.7% and 61.3% were in the north and south respectively, and per capita cropland area was about 8.2 mu. The national mean reclamation ratio (i.e. ratio of cropland area to total land area; RRA hereafter for short) was bout 16.6%. The plain areas, such as the North China Plain, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Guanzhong Plain, plains surrounding the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake and Sichuan Basin, had a higher RRA, being mostly over 40%; while the hilly and mountainous areas, such as south of Nanling Mountains, the southwest regions (excluding the Chengdu Plain), Loess Plateau and south-east coastal regions, had a lower RRA, being less than 20%. Moreover, RRA varied with topographic slope and altitude. In the areas of low altitude (≤250 m), middle altitude (250-100 m) and high altitude (1000-3500 m), there were 443 million, 215 million and 64 million mu of cropland respectively and their regional mean RRAs were 27.5%, 12.6% and 7.2% respectively. In the areas of flat slope, gentle slope, medium slope and steep slope, there were 116 million, 456 million, 144 million and 2 million mu of cropland respectively and their regional mean RRAs were 34.6%, 20.7%, 8.5% and 2.3% respectively. 相似文献
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中国传统农区过去300年耕地重建结果的对比分析 总被引：12，自引：4，他引：8
土地覆被变化是气候与生态效应模拟研究的重要参量。SAGE和HYDE两个全球历史土地利用数据集在相关研究中得到广泛应用, 但在区域尺度上的应用, 其可靠性如何, 至今少有论及。以我国学者重建的传统农区历史耕地数据集(CHCD) 为基础, 从全区、省区和网格(60 km×60 km) 三个空间尺度, 对SAGE (2010) 和HYDE3.1 数据集中有关中国传统农区历史耕地重建结果进行对比分析, 结果表明:(1) SAGE (2010) 数据集对中国传统农区耕地数量重建是以单一线性插补而得, 其中1700-1950 年是以0.51%的年均增长率线性递增, 1950 年后是以0.34%年均速率线性递减, 这种“标准化”变化趋势不能客观反映传统农区土地垦殖的真实历史, 耕地面积也明显高估, 与CHCD数据集不具有可比性;(2) HYDE3.1 数据集吸纳了区域性研究成果, 使其在总量上与CHCD数据集较为接近, 具有较好的可比性, 但其在省区和网格尺度上与CHCD存在显著差异, 其中相对差异率超过70% (< -70%或> 70%) 的网格占比高达56%~63%, 超过90% (< -90%或> 90%) 的网格占比也高达40%~45%;而相对差异率介于-10%~10%的网格占比仅为5%~6%, 介于-30%~30%的网格占比也仅为17%左右;(3) 充分利用我国丰富的历史文献, 建立更高精度的中国区域历史土地利用数据集, 是提高区域气候与生态效应模拟研究质量的重要保障。 相似文献
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Reconstructing historical land use and land cover change(LUCC) at the regional scale is an important component of global environmental change studies and of improving global historical land use datasets. By analyzing data in historical documents, including military-oriented cropland(hereafter M-cropland) area, the number of households engaged in M-cropland(hereafter M-household) reclamation, cropland area, and the number of households, we propose a conversion relationship between M-cropland area and cropland area reclaimed by each household. A provincial cropland area estimation method for the Yuan Dynasty is described and used to reconstruct the provincial cropland area for AD1290. Major findings are as follows.(1) Both the M-cropland and cropland areas of each household were high in the north and low in the south during the Yuan Dynasty, which resulted from different natural conditions and planting practices. Based on this observation, the government-allocated M-cropland reclamation area to each household was based on the cropland area reclaimed by each household.(2) The conversion relationship between M-cropland and cropland areas per household showed conversion coefficients of 1.23 and 0.65 for the south and north, respectively.(3) The cropland area in the entire study area in AD1290 was 535.4×106 mu(Chinese area unit, 1 mu=666.7 m~2), 57.8% in the north and 42.2% in the south. The fractional cropland areas for the entire study area, north, and south were 6.8%, 6.6%, and 7.1%, respectively and the per capita cropland areas for the whole study area, north, and south were 6.7, 15.6, and 4.1 mu, respectively.(4) Cropland was mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River(including the Fuli area), Huaihe River Basin(including Henan Province), and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(including Jiangzhe, Jiangxi, and Huguang provinces). 相似文献
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The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land-cover datasets plays an important role in studying the climatic and ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change(LUCC). Using potential natural vegetation(PNV) and satellite-based land use data, we determined the possible maximum distribution extent of forest cover in the absence of human disturbance. Subsequently, topography and climate factors were selected to assess the suitability of land for cultivation. Finally, a historical forest area allocation model was devised on the basis of the suitability of land for cultivation. As a case study, we used the historical forest area allocation model to reconstruct forest cover for 1780 and 1940 in Northeast China with a 10-km resolution. To validate the model, we compared satellite-based forest cover data with our reconstruction for 2000. A one-sample t-test of absolute bias showed that the two-tailed significance was 0.12, larger than the significant level 0.05, suggesting that the model has strong ability to capture the spatial distribution of forests. In addition, we calculated the relative difference of our reconstruction at the county scale for 1780 in Northeast China. The number of counties whose relative difference ranged from-30% to 30% is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. These findings demonstrated that the provincial forest area could be transformed into forest cover maps well using the model. 相似文献
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全球历史土地利用数据集已在全球变化研究中得到了广泛的应用,但其草地数据在区域尺度上的可靠性,尚未得到验证和评估.文章以中国学者基于历史文献重建的过去百年中国草地数据集(葛氏数据集)、过去300年中国东北地区数据集(叶氏数据集)以及1980～2015年中国遥感土地利用/覆盖数据库(CLUDs)为基准,采用趋势对比法、相对差异比值法和空间网格对比法对HYDE3.1、HYDE3.2、SAGE和PJ等全球数据集中国草地数据的可靠性进行评估.结果表明:(1)全球数据集中国历史草地数据与本国学者所重建的数据相比,不仅呈现的变化趋势完全相悖,而且绝对数量也存在巨大差异.(2)从2000年中国草地空间格局看, HYDE3.1、HYDE3.2和SAGE与CLUDs的草地数据对比,相对差异率大于60%的网格占比分别高达50.9%、52.8%和63.0%.而小于20%的网格占比分别仅为24.9%、26.7%和16.0%.(3)从东北地区过去300年草地空间动态过程看, HYDE3.2数据反映了草地空间分布呈不断扩张态势,而本国学者重建的结果则反映了该地区随土地垦殖活动的增强,草地空间分布范围日渐萎缩的特征.(4)造成上述差异的原因除全球数据集与中国区域数据集秉承不同草地概念的内涵外,主要是源于区域性不同土地利用范式而形成的不同的逻辑基础与重建方法. 相似文献
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清代西南地区森林空间格局网格化重建简 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于遥感土地利用数据和全球潜在植被数据,确定了中国西南地区土地垦殖前森林植被可能的分布范围,并通过量化地形（海拔、坡度）和气候生产潜力（光照、温度、水分）与农林地分布间的关系,构建了土地宜垦性评估模型和历史森林面积网格化分配模型,重建了清代西南地区5个时点、分辨率为10 km×10 km的森林空间格局。结果表明：①本文设计的森林空间格局网格化重建方法具有一定的可行性,其结果能较好地反映森林变迁历史过程的基本特征;②西南地区森林覆被率从雍正二年（1724年）的54.7%下降至宣统三年（1911年）的27.8%,其减少地区主要分布在四川盆地、云南中南部以及贵州大部;③从网格占比的变化趋势看,1724-1911年,西南地区森林覆被率小于10%的网格占比上升了约31个百分点,而覆被率大于80%的网格占比则下降了约13个百分点。 相似文献
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全球历史森林数据中国区域的可靠性评估 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
全球历史土地利用数据集对于深入理解全球或区域环境变化具有重要意义。历史森林数据作为其重要组成部分,在区域尺度上的可靠性至今鲜有评估。以中国区域为研究对象,依据中国学者基于历史文献资料重建的中国历史森林数据（CHFD）,采用趋势、数量和空间格局等对比法,对全球数据集（SAGE、PJ和KK10）中国森林数据的可靠性进行评估。结果表明：① 虽然全球数据集中国森林数据与CHFD在近300年的变化趋势上均呈减少态势,但数量上差异较大。其中,SAGE数据集对中国1700年以来的森林面积估算较CHFD高出约20%~40%;KK10数据集重建的1700-1850年森林数量则高出约32%~46%;而PJ数据集由于吸纳了区域性研究成果,其总量与CHFD较为接近,多数时点的数量差异低于20%。② 在省区尺度上,从总量与CHFD较为接近的PJ数据集来看,其与CHFD数据集森林变化趋势差异较大省区占到84%,而数量差异较大的省区占比高达92%。③ 在网格尺度上,PJ与CHFD数据集相对差异率> 70%的网格占比高达60%~80%,二者的时空动态格局差异明显。④ 全球数据集中国历史森林数据未能客观反映该区域森林变化的过程与格局特征,造成这一现象的原因在于全球与区域性数据集重建历史数据所依据的资料源不同,以及基于不同空间尺度构建的重建方法的差异等。 相似文献