排序方式： 共有18条查询结果，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(the Fifth Phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project,CM IP5)的8个模式在高浓度排放路径RCP8. 5下的输出资料对青藏高原(下称高原) 21世纪未来气候变化进行预测,基于水汽收支方程对高原局地地表水通量P-E(降水-蒸发)变化进行热动力过程分解,求取平均环流(动力因子Mean Circulation Dynamic,MCD)、水汽辐合项(热动力因子,Thermal Dynamic,TH)等对P-E通量变化的相对贡献率,建立大尺度环流变化和高原局地气候变化的定量关系,探讨高原未来气候变化的热动力成因。研究结果表明:(1)高原未来整体变暖湿,与历史参考时期1986-2005年相比,21世纪末P-E通量增加17. 9%,增湿梯度呈西北-东南向分布,以高原东南部林木分布区增加最显著;(2)在高原湿季(5-9月,也即高原植被生长季)内,因平均环流变化导致的水汽输送变化是高原未来变湿的主要原因,贡献了约53%的P-E通量增加,这与气候变暖后Hadley环流下沉支和中高纬西风环流的极向扩展有关;热动力因子贡献了12%P-E通量的增加,对高原未来的整体变湿贡献相对较小,但在三江源区热动力贡献较大,这与该区未来植被覆盖增加,植被对气候变化的正反馈加强有关。值得注意的是,受CMIP5多模式分辨率粗糙、模拟性能在高原地区差异较大等的影响,分析结果存在一定不确定性,结论比较初步,未来使用分辨率更高、物理过程更完善的模式,结合统计方法提高预测精度可进一步改善研究结果。 相似文献
2.
3.
4.
5.
动态植被模型是研究植被变化对气候反馈和影响的重要模型工具。本文对耦合了动态植被（Dynamic Vegetation, DV）和碳氮（Carbon and Nitrogen, CN）模型的NCAR陆面过程模式CLM4.5(Community Land Model version 4.5)对青藏高原（以下简称高原）植被的模拟性能进行了评估,获得了定量化的偏差信息,并对高原植被和气候变化因子的关系进行了初步探讨。结果表明：模型能大致再现叶面积指数（Leaf area index, LAI）在历史时期的季节循环、长期变化趋势和空间分布,但空间变率较遥感资料大。模拟的乔木覆盖度偏大,草地覆盖度偏小,因此严重高估了植被高原南部和东部的LAI。与遥感观测相比,模拟的LAI呈现了1～2个月的滞后,这与模式本身的植被动力机制不完善和模式的降水驱动偏差有关。高原植被变化趋势的时空分布与表层土壤水和降水等气象因子的趋势变化显示出较好的一致性,表明在该研究时段,地表水循环的变化（主要是降水和土壤水含量）对高原植被生长可能起主导作用。 相似文献
6.
作者运用地理学的时空观和基本理论,从发展战略的角度,分析了区位条件、腹地资源等因素对石臼港的影响,并提出相应的发展对策,探讨连云港与石臼港、岚山港分工协作形成地域港口体系的可行性。 相似文献
7.
8.
Temperature in the Eastern China Seas(ECS), including the Bohai, Yellow, and East China seas, is crucially important with regard to weather forecasting and fishery activities of adjacent countries. Although sea surface temperature(SST) in the ECS has demonstrated a dramatically accelerated trend of warming after a regime shift(1976–1996), trends beneath the surface remain poorly understood because of the sparsity of observations. This study used in situ hydrographic data from 1976 to 1996 to examine upperocean temperature trends in the ECS. It was found that the multilevel trends show consistency with that of the surface water; i.e., warming is faster in winter than summer. However, the magnitudes of the trends weaken with increasing depth. Furthermore, the seasonal dif ference in the upper ocean is mainly associated with the warm currents in the ECS, which implies an essential contribution from horizontal advection. These phenomena could also be detected from data acquired from the routinely observed PN and 34°N sections. The spatiotemporal patterns of temperature trends in the upper ECS extend our understanding beyond the SST, especially highlighting the role of ocean dynamics in forming temperature patterns beneath the surface in comparison with atmospheric ef fects. 相似文献
9.
陕西洛川黄土剖面中的稀土元素 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The ∑REE in Ioesses of different ages in the Luochuan section shows a narrow range of variation, indicating the homogeneity of materials in chemical composition. The REE in loess are concentrated mainly in silt.sized detrital minerals. Loesses of different ages and paleosols all are relatively enriched in rare-earth elements of the Ce family, and show similar REE distribution patterns. The fractinnatlon among various REEs in the loess is different from that in morainic, marine and lacustrine sediments,but is similar to that in sand samples from deserts in Northwest China. The ratios of Ce/Ce^* and Eu/Eu^* reflect that the provenance of loessic materials and their accumulating area are all in an oxidation environment with weakly basic mediums under arid or sub-arid climate. 相似文献
10.