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Accuracy evaluation of two precipitation datasets over upper reach of Heihe River Basin, northwestern China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As an important forcing data for hydrologic models, precipitation has significant effects on model simulation. The China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (ITP) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (G... 相似文献
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准确判断重大自然灾害发生趋势对于防灾减灾意义重大.基于时间对称性理论,本文构建“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式,判断了淮河流域(HRB)洪涝灾害发生趋势.结果表明:(1)通过可公度降噪处理去除了噪声元素,提高了预测的精确性;(2)运用三元可公度、蝴蝶结构图、信息结构系等方法判断,2019年HRB发生洪涝灾害的信号较强,该年发生洪涝灾害的随机性概率为66.7%,不漏报置信水平为57.1%;(3)通过洪涝灾害与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析可知,HRB在太阳黑子活动谷年附近易发生洪涝灾害,进一步提高了预测结果的可信度.“可公度降噪—对称性趋势判断—信息结构系稳定性检验”研究模式是对现有时间对称性方法的补充和完善,以期为中国灾害预测起到一定的推动作用. 相似文献
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黑河山区流域平均坡长的计算与径流模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
流域平均坡长是侧向流和汇流时间计算的重要参数,其会影响地表径流的计算。应用SWAT 2005和ArcView GIS 3.2集成的AVSWAT模型,对黑河干流上游山区流域莺落峡出山口径流进行模拟,发现其计算的流域平均坡长存在较大误差,进而影响到模拟结果。利用子流域内已知的平均坡度和平均坡长建立回归方程,计算各子流域的平均坡长,替换AVSWAT计算的不合理值,在保持其他参数不变的情况下,模拟的月径流纳什系数从0.60提高到0.75,模拟结果得到显著提高。敏感性分析结果和径流曲线数(CN2)的分析也间接验证了流域平均坡长修正方法的可行性。在修正流域平均坡长后,对AVSWAT模型的其他参数CN2等进行优化,模拟的月径流的纳什系数达到0.81,表明本文建议的流域平均坡长计算方法是可以应用到实际的干旱区黑河流域并取得较好模拟效果。 相似文献
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基于CMIP5模式的干旱内陆河流域未来气候变化预估 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
我国西北干旱半干旱地区水资源短缺、生态环境脆弱,未来气候变化预估对水资源管理具有重要的现实意义。以黑河流域为研究区,基于1960-2014年月值NCEP再分析资料与气象要素实测资料,建立逐步回归降尺度模型;针对模型不足,提出一种补充逐步回归降尺度模型;经2006-2014年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式的区域适用性评价,选取适宜模型进行2016-2060年CNRM-CM5模式下的流域未来气候变化预估。主要结论为：（1）补充逐步回归模型的模拟效果总体要好于逐步回归模型,两模型对流域气温的模拟效果要好于降水。（2）降尺度模型的CNRMCM5模式适用性评价表明,RCP4.5与RCP8.5路径下,补充回归模型的适用性总体好于逐步回归模型。（3）两种路径下,黑河流域上中游未来年均降水量分别为324.94 mm、330.15 mm,未来流域降水分布的不均匀性增强。（4）两种路径下黑河流域中下游未来年均气温分别为10.25℃、10.77℃。 相似文献
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The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on the Summer Hydrological Cycle in the Haihe River Basin of China 
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下载免费PDF全文 OU Tinghai LIU Yanxiang CHEN Deliang David RAYNER ZHANG Qiang GAO Ge XIANG Weiguo 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(4):517-526
In this study, we focus on changes in three important components of the hydrological-cycle in the Haihe River basin (HRB) during 1957-2005: precipitation (Prep), actual evaportranspiration (ETa), and pan evaporation (PE)-a measure of potential evaporation. The changes in these components have been evaluated in relation to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon. Summer Prep for the whole basin has decreased significantly during 1957-2005. Recent weakening of the convergence of the integrated water vapor flux, in combination with a change from cyclonic-like large-scale circulation conditions to anti-cyclonic-like conditions, led to the decrease in the summer Prep in the HRB. ETa is positively correlated with Prep on the interannual timescale. On longer timescales, however, ETa is less dependent on Prep or the large-scale circulation. We found negative trends in ETa when the ERA40 reanalysis data were used, but positive trends in ETa when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used. PE declined during the period 1957-2001. The declining of PE could be explained by a combination of declining solar radiation and declining surface wind. However, the declining solar radiation may itself be related to the weakening winds, due to weaker dispersion of pollution. If so, the downward trend of PE may be mainly caused by weakening winds. 相似文献
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In this study,we focus on changes in three important components of the hydrological-cycle in the Haihe River basin (HRB) during 1957-2005:precipitation (Prep),actual evaportranspiration (ETa),and pan evaporation (PE)- a measure of potential evaporation.The changes in these components have been evaluated in relation to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon.Summer Prep for the whole basin has decreased significantly during 1957-2005.Recent weakening of the convergence of the integrated water vapor flux,in combination with a change from cyclonic-like large-scale circulation conditions to anti-cyclonic-like conditions,led to the decrease in the summer Prep in the HRB.ETa is positively correlated with Prep on the interannual timescalc.On longer timescales,however,ETa is less dependent on Prep or the large-scale circulation.We found negative trends in ETa when the ERA40 reanalysis data were used,but positive trends in ETa when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used.PE declined during the period 1957 2001.The declining of PE could be explained by a combination of declining solar radiation and declining surface wind.Howevcr,the declining solar radiation may itself be related to the weakening winds,due to weaker dispersion of pollution.If so,the downward trend of PE may be mainly caused by weakening winds. 相似文献
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黑河流域气象要素与全球性大气环流特征量的多尺度遥相关分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
黑河流域生态-水文过程集成研究是我国近年来干旱半干旱地区的研究热点,气候变化条件下流域生态-水文过程的响应机制是其中一个重要科学问题。基于1956-2015 年黑河流域气温、湿度、降水观测数据及多个大气环流特征量监测资料,采用小波分析方法研究了流域气象要素与大气环流特征量的周期性及遥相关。结果表明：（1）流域气温与大气环流特征量的遥相关关系最为明显,湿度、降水次之。（2）气温与Niño3.4 SSTA、SOI 的显著遥相关共同周期为12～16 a,与NAO、AO为9～11 a,与WP遥相关周期为5～9 a,与PDO为8～15 a。（3）湿度与NAO遥相关周期为4～5 a,与POL为3～6 a,与WP为9～15 a,与PNA为2～8 a。（4）降水与Niño3.4 SSTA遥相关周期为9～15 a,与NAO为2～4 a,与AO为3～7 a,与POL为11～19 a,与WP为9～14 a。（5）上述各遥相关周期的地域分布、显著时段与时滞特征各有差异。本文研究有助于加深流域气象要素对环流特征量响应机制的认识,为我国干旱半干旱地区内陆河流域严峻的水-生态问题的解决及水资源管理提供依据。 相似文献
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针对当前典型的损伤模型存在一定程度上的缺陷,提出一个基于弹性变形能形式的损伤评价模型。该模型将过程量转化为状态量,考虑了滞回过程中构件位移与刚度退化的影响。通过对滞回过程进行简化与等效,使得地震作用计算变得贴近实际情况。通过四个HRB400级钢筋混凝土柱破坏性试验数据的分析,验证了本文提出的模型的正确性与合理性。 相似文献
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O.R. van Lier J.E. Luther D.G. Leckie W.W. Bowers 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011
Monitoring ecological indicators is important for assessing impacts of human activities on ecosystems. A means of identifying and applying appropriate indicators is a prerequisite for: environmental assessment; better assessment and understanding of ecosystem health; elucidation of biogeochemical trends; and more accurate predictions of future responses to global change, particularly those due to anthropogenic disturbance. The challenge is to derive meaningful indicators of change that capture the complexities of ecosystems yet can be monitored consistently over large areas and across time. In this study, methods for monitoring indicators of land cover (LC) and forest change were developed using multi-sensor Landsat imagery. Mapping and updating procedures were applied to the Humber River Basin (HRB) in Newfoundland and Labrador, one of four test sites in Canada selected for testing the development of national-scale methods. Procedures involved unsupervised clustering and labeling of baseline imagery, followed by image-to-image spectral clustering to derive binary change masks within which new LC types were classified for non-baseline imagery. Updated maps were compatible with the baseline map and reflected change in LC for three time periods: 1976–1990, 1990–2001, and 2001–2007. From the LC products, several change indicators were quantified including: forest depletion, forest regeneration, forest change, net forest change, and annual rates of change. The procedures were validated using field plots to assess the accuracy of the 2007 LC product (74.2% for 10 LC classes) and change classes observed from 2001 to 2007 (87.8% for four change classes: depletion, regeneration, non-treed class no change, and treed class no change). Methods were considered to be highly efficient and operationally feasible over large areas spanning multiple Landsat scenes. Specific results for the test site provided trend information supporting land and resource management in the HRB region. 相似文献
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本文利用天宫一号获取的具有高空间分辨率的红外谱段数据,选择黑河中游作为反演区域,基于辐射传输模型和Planck定律进行地表温度反演.影像的反演结果表明使用天宫一号高空间分辨率的红外谱段反演得到的地表温度能更细致合理的刻画地表温度分布,这对地表温度异质性的研究具有重要意义.为了进一步验证反演精度,本文依托黑河流域已有观测平台和系统,选取黑河中游8个典型下垫面作为验证场地,开展地面同步观测实验.实验结果表明通过反演获得的地表温度与地面实测数据的平均偏差为-0.375℃,这也说明本文的反演过程能够较为精确的使用天宫一号红外谱段反演地表温度. 相似文献
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