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华南冬春降水的年际变化及其与水汽输送的联系 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用1960—2008 年华南47 个基准站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料,研究了华南冬春降水的年际变化特征及其与水汽输送的联系。结果表明,1960 年代—1970 年代和1990 年代末至今,华南冬、春降水明显偏少。华南冬春降水异常以“ 全区冬春同号型” 居多,且冬春连旱频率较高。影响华南冬春连续旱/涝的水汽输送存在季节性差异,冬季水汽输送变化主要来源于孟加拉湾和南海,春季水汽输送变化则来源于南海和我国北方。进一步探讨海温异常的影响发现,与华南冬春连续旱(涝)事件相关的Niño3.4 海温存在正、负异常型,海温异常中心分别偏向Niño4(Niño3)区和Niño3(Niño4)区。Niño3.4 区海温正异常时,孟加拉湾和南海水汽输送与华南冬春连续旱涝有密切联系;Niño3.4 区海温负异常时,冬季自西北太平洋经南海的水汽输送及春季自菲律宾海经南海的水汽输送和北方水汽输送对华南冬春连续旱涝有重要影响。以上水汽输送在两种海温异常情况下,连涝(旱)年均异常偏强(弱)。因此,Niño3.4 海温异常的变化及分布与华南冬春持续旱/涝事件存在联系,在此气候背景下,水汽输送异常是影响华南冬春降水异常的重要物理因子,其中南海是水汽输送异常显著相关区。 相似文献
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INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF WINTER AND SPRING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA AND ITS RELATION TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
The interannual variability of winter and spring precipitation in South China(SC)and its relation to moisture transport are investigated by using the monthly precipitation data of NMIC,NCEP reanalysis datasets and NOAA ERSST analysis datasets from 1960 to 2008.The results show that winter and spring precipitation in SC is less than normal from the 1960s to the start of the 1970s and from the end of the 1990s to the present.Most of rainfall anomalies on the whole regional scale of SC is well in phase during winter and spring,and the frequency of persistent drought is higher than that of persistent flood.Seasonal variations of moisture transport differences of SC between persistent drought and flood events are observed:the differences in winter are characterized by moisture transport from Bay of Bangle(BOB)and South China Sea(SCS),while differences in spring are characterized by that from SCS and North China(NC).There are two types of Ni o3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)related to persistent winter and spring drought(flood)events in SC,which are positive SSTA next to Ni o4(Ni o3)and negative SSTA next to Ni o3(Ni o4).Moreover,the variations of moisture transport from BOB and SC have important effects on persistent drought/flood in SC when the Ni o3.4 index is in the positive phase,while those from western North Pacific(WNP)-SC in winter and those from Philippine Sea(PHS)-SC and NC in spring primarily contribute to persistent drought/flood events in SC when the Ni o3.4 index is in the negative phase,and these stronger(weaker)moisture transports are observed in persistent flood(drought)during winter and spring regardless of the Ni o3.4 index.In conclusion,with the correlation between variations and distributions of Ni o3.4 SSTA and persistent drought/flood events in SC,moisture transport is responsible for the formation of precipitation anomalies.In addition,the moisture transport from SCS is most significantly correlated with persistent drought/flood events during winter and spring. 相似文献
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Based on monthly rainfall data from 80 stations of China for the period of January 1951—February 1985 analysed in terms of the maximum entropy spectrum and EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) techniques,the spatial and temporal features of quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)in the rainfall are investigated in a detailed manner,with some results of interest acquired.Highly evident is the QBO in rainfall over China,especially the mid and lower reaches of the Changjiang River,the NE side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,North China,the southern part of NE China,areas south of the Changjiang River and of the Nanling mountain region,and most of Xinjiang.The spatial wave described by the first and second eigenvectors of EEOF for eastern China is a type of wavetravelling from NE to SW,indicating the cycle of patterns(in the south to north direction):dryness(D)-wetness(W)-dryness(D)→southern W-northern slight D→W-D-W→southern D-northern slight W→D-W-D again,with the flooded region between the Changjiang and Huanghe Rivers for the D-W-D occurrence and with the Changjiang River as the division for the southern W-northern slight D happening.The third and fourth eigenvectors show a standing wave-like feature for the same eastern part,indicating the cycle of D-W-D→transition→W-D-W→transition→D-W-D,again,where the transition means the general weakening of drought and flooding and their subsequent reversal development.The amplitudes of the time coefficients of the first two eigenvectors are opposite in the trend of their changes to those of the next two and show a period of 10—14 years. 相似文献
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中国东部夏季雨带推进过程的年际、年代际变化 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用中国东部355站夏季逐日降水资料,定义了空间均一化降水指数,并利用联合经验正交展开(EEOF)等方法研究了中国东部夏季雨带推进过程的年际变化和年代际变化特征.结果表明:中国东部夏季雨带以110°E为界分东西两个雨带中心向北推进,且由于两雨带进程不一致,致使整个东部夏季雨带呈东北-西南向向北推进;当雨带推进偏强时,雨带易偏北,夏季多出现Ⅰ型降水分布,雨带推进偏弱时,雨带易偏南,夏季多出现Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型降水分布;中国东部夏季雨带推进强度在1966年和1979年发生明显突变,1957-1966年雨带推进偏强,而在1979-1989年雨带推进偏弱. 相似文献
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通常气候变量场在时间上存在着显著的自相关及交叉相关,扩展的经验正交函数(ExtendedEOF,以下记作EEOF)分析是在经典的EOF基础上发展而来的,它同时考虑了要素的空间和时间相关性,可以得到变量场的移动性分布结构。本文通过对赤道太平洋次表层海温距平(SOTA)场的EEOF分解,发现第一特征向量是关于ElNino的模态,它反映了ElNino的发生持续消亡的整个过程,对应的时间系数(第一主分量)与Nino3指数有很好的同时相关。第二特征向量是关于西太平洋暖池的模态,它反映了西太平洋暖池从暖位相到冷位相(同时东太平洋从冷位相到暖位相)的过程,第二主分量与滞后6～10个月的Nino3指数有很好的相关性。这两个主分量不但有助于了解赤道太平洋海温异常的过程,而且为厄尔尼诺的预报提供了重要线索。 相似文献
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Based on monthly rainfall data from 80 stations of China for the period of January 1951—February 1985analysed in terms of the maximum entropy spectrum and EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function)techniques,the spatial and temporal features of quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)in the rainfall are investigatedin a detailed manner,with some results of interest acquired.Highly evident is the QBO in rainfall over China,especially the mid and lower reaches of the ChangjiangRiver,the NE side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,North China,the southern part of NE China,areas southof the Changjiang River and of the Nanling mountain region,and most of Xinjiang.The spatial wave described by the first and second eigenvectors of EEOF for eastern China is a type of wavetravelling from NE to SW,indicating the cycle of patterns(in the south to north direction):dryness(D)-wetness(W)-dryness(D)→southern W-northern slight D→W-D-W→southern D-northern slight W→D-W-D again,with the flooded region between the Changjiang and Huanghe Rivers for the D-W-D occurrenceand with the Changjiang River as the division for the southern W-northern slight D happening.The third andfourth eigenvectors show a standing wave-like feature for the same eastern part,indicating the cycle of D-W-D→transition→W-D-W→transition→D-W-D,again,where the transition means the generalweakening of drought and flooding and their subsequent reversal development.The amplitudes of the time coefficients of the first two eigenvectors are opposite in the trend of their changesto those of the next two and show a period of 10—14 years. 相似文献
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Filtering technique, extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF), spectrum distribution function and correla-tion analysis have been employed to study the relationship between arctic ice cover (AIC) and monthly mean tempera-ture and precipitation in China. The function of power spectrum density shows that not only a semi-annual and an an-nual oscillation but also a quasi-biennial oscillation can be found in AIC area index series, especially in June, Septemberand November. During the period of analysis, it can also be found that there exists a good correlation between the ElNino events and the AIC area index. An analysis on the EEOF of AIC and the temperature over China exhibits somesignificant temporal-spatial patterns and a better time-lag interrelationship between them. The results from the correla-tion analysis indicate that the variation of AIC area has a significant influence on the temperature and precipitation insubsequent months over China. In addition, it experiences a quasi-biennial low-frequency oscillation and displays tocertain extent some features of propagation. 相似文献
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以欧洲中心数值预报产品为基础,采用ＥＥＯＦＳ展开选取“典型场”作为数值预报产品的信息,以统计释用方法研究建立的,可以应用于南海区的热旋路径业务预报方法。该方法于１９９４年台汛期参加由广东省气象主持的“关于热带气旋预报业务试验项目”,进行了９个台风的共１４次预报试验,平均误差２４ｈ为１８７ｋｍ,４８ｈ为２５２ｋｍ。 相似文献
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