Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件     

吴泽忠 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(2):258-262

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.  相似文献   

Water transport from the North-east Irish Sea to western Scottish coastal waters: Further observations from time-trend matching of Sellafield radiocaesium     

W.A. McKay  M.S. Baxter 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(4):471-480

Radiocaesium isotopes, discharged into the North-east Irish Sea from the Sellafield (formerly Windscale) nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Cumbria, have been employed as flow monitors to update and extend the record of coastal water movement from the Irish Sea to the Clyde Sea area and, further north, to Loch Etive. The temporal trends in radiocaesium levels have been used to determine the extent of water mixing en route and to define mean advection rates. Flow conditions from the Irish Sea have changed considerably since the mid-1970s, the residence time of northern Irish Sea waters being ～12 months during 1978–1980 inclusive. Average transport times of four and six months are estimated for the Sellafield to Clyde and Sellafield to Etive transects respectively. Sellafield ¹³⁷Cs levels in seawater were diluted by factors of 27 and 50 respectively during current movement to the Clyde and Etive areas. The decrease in salinity-corrected ¹³⁷Cs concentrations between the Clyde and Etive suggests that dilution by Atlantic water occurs, the latter mainly entering the Firth of Lorne from the west. The majority (～94%) of the radiocaesium supply to Loch Etive enters the Firth of Lorne via the portion of the coastal current circulating west of Islay, only ～6% arriving via the Sound of Jura.  相似文献   

Subtidal sea level and current variations in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay     

Roy A. Walters  Jeffrey W. Gartner 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(1):17-32

Analyses of sea level and current-meter data using digital filters and a variety of statistical methods show a variety of phenomena related to non-local coastal forcing and local tidal forcing in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, a partially mixed estuary. Low-frequency variations in sea level are dominated by non-local variations in coastal sea level and also show a smaller influence from tidally induced fortnightly sea level variations. Low-frequency currents demonstrate a gravitational circulation which is modified by changes in tidal-current speed over the spring-neap tidal cycle. Transients in gravitational circulation induce internal oscillations with periods of two to four days.  相似文献   

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用     

刘德辅宋艳  李晓冬 《海洋工程》2003,21(4):35-40

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。  相似文献   

Long-Period Distribution of Wave Heights and Its Application     

Weng Keqin Associate Professor  Hydraulic  Hydro-Power Engineering Dept.  Tsinghua University  Beijing 《中国海洋工程》1995,(2)

This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.  相似文献   

Influence of Wind on Dynamics and Flushing of Shallow Estuaries     

W.R. Geyer 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1997,44(6):713-722

Observations of two small estuaries in Cape Cod, U.S.A. indicate large variations in salinity structure that are forced by variations in along-estuary wind stress. During onshore winds, the estuarine circulation is reduced, and the along-estuary salinity gradient increases as freshwater accumulates. During offshore winds, the surface outflow is enhanced, freshwater is flushed out of the estuary, and the along-estuary salinity gradient becomes weak. Constrictions block the wind-induced flushing, resulting in strong salinity fronts across the constrictions. The residence time of one of the estuaries varies by more than a factor of three in response to variations in wind-induced flushing. The other estuary has little variation of flushing associated with winds, due to a constriction at the mouth that inhibits the wind-induced exchange. The strong influence of winds on the flushing of these estuaries is due in part to their shallow depths, which accentuates the influence of wind stress relative to the effects of the horizontal density gradient. In addition, the residence times of the estuaries are comparable to the time scale of wind forcing, allowing large changes in water properties during wind events.  相似文献   

渤海的环流、潮余流及其对沉积物分布的影响   总被引：16，自引：2，他引：16  

赵保仁  庄国文  曹德明  雷方辉 《海洋与湖沼》1995,26(5):466-473

阐明渤海环流和潮余流的分布特征及其与沉积物输运之间的关系。本文根据８０年代以来的实测海流资料得到：辽东湾的环流是顺时针向的；黄河三角洲外海存在着一支流向东北偏北向流，与辽东湾西部的东北向海流相接；渤海湾内的环流北部为反时针向，南部为顺时针向回转的双环结构。上述环流趋势与渤海沉积物分布相一致。渤海沿岸主要入海河流的特征矿物分布正在上述环流存在的最好佐证。文中进一步讨论了潮余流分布特征及其对渤海环流的  相似文献   

渤海南部海域年极值波浪和设计波浪的特征研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

滕学春  吴秀杰 《海洋科学进展》1994,(3)

本文用统计计算和后报方法，获得了本海域不同海区多年年极值波高（Ｈ１／１０）资料。用Ｐ－Ⅲ型和短期测波资料频率分析方法，估算了各海区的设计波高，并依据文献［３］计算出对应的平均周期。用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｆｆ适合度方法检验所得的结果表明，依Ｐ－Ⅲ型方法拟配的理论频率曲线与经验点十分吻合，从而确定了本海域不同海区最佳的设计波浪。分析本海域年极值波浪的基本特征表明，本海域除了渤海湾北部海区以外，主浪向一般为ＮＮＥ向，渤海海峡区的年极值波高和设计波高均为最大，而向莱州湾及渤海湾沿岸海区逐渐减小；在沿岸海区，由龙口至黄河口一带的极值波高较大。  相似文献   

Modeling bed-load transport of coarse sediments in the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Bilgili  M. R. Swift  D. R. Lynch  J. T. C. Ip 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,58(4):937-950

Current, sea level and bed-load transport are investigated in the Lower Piscataqua River section of the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire, USA—a well-mixed and geometrically complex system with low freshwater input, having main channel tidal currents ranging between 0.5 and 2 m s⁻¹. Current and sea level forced by the M₂M₄M₆ tides at the estuarine mouth are simulated by a vertically averaged, non-linear, time-stepping finite element model. The hydrodynamic model uses a fixed boundary computational domain and accounts for flooding–drying of tidal flats by making use of a groundwater component. Inertia terms are neglected in comparison with pressure gradient and bottom friction terms, which is consistent with the observed principal dynamic balance for this section of the system. The accuracy of hydrodynamic predictions in the study area is demonstrated by comparison with four tidal elevation stations and two cross-section averaged current measurements. Simulated current is then used to model bed-load transport in the vicinity of a rapidly growing shoal located in the main channel of the lower system. Consisting of coarse sand and gravel, the shoal must be dredged every five to eight years. Two approaches are taken—an Eulerian parametric method in which nodal bed-load flux vectors are averaged over the tidal cycle and a Lagrangian particle tracking approach in which a finite number of sediment particles are released and tracked. Both methods yield pathways and accumulations in agreement with the observed shoal formation and the long-term rate of sediment accumulation in the shoal area.  相似文献