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Mesoscale features in the eastward extension of the Kuroshio were investigated using assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P)
data into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The T/P data exhibited an elongated state of the southern recirculation gyre
in 1993–95 and 1997, between whose two periods the gyre had a contracted state in 1995–96. A few stationary eddies were located
in the southern gyre during the contracted state. The baroclinic instability, which was indicated by the phase shift from
the uppermost-to the lowest-layer anomalies toward the downstream side, was evident near the Kuroshio Extension (KE) path.
Since the instability never appeared in the artificial model without bottom topography, the topographic barrier for the eastward
flow in the lowest layer was a necessary condition for the instability. The instability synchronized with the transition in
the western region of the KE axis from the elongated to the contracted states. This evolution was interpreted as if the baroclinic
instability played some part in the KE states and was a trigger for the transition from the elongated to the contracted states. 相似文献
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不同要素谱逼近对高分辨区域数值模式梅雨模拟的改进 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为改进高分辨率区域数值天气预报模式雨带模拟偏差,利用WRF模式探讨了不同要素及其组合谱逼近方法对2015年浙江典型梅雨天气预报性能的影响。结果表明:(1)不同单要素逼近对梅雨模拟效果影响差异明显,风场逼近对模拟结果改进较大,高度场逼近对结果略有改善,而温度场逼近主要表现为负效应;风场组合了其他要素的逼近效果与单要素类似,故将水平风场谱逼近确定为最优方案。(2)最优方案对梅雨期间形势场各要素改进程度的排序为纬向风、经向风、相对湿度、温度场和高度场;三个特征层850、500、200 hPa各要素平均的均方根误差(相关系数)分别降低了(增加了)24. 1%(13.6%)、22.7%(21.7%)和13.0%(12.2%);且改进幅度随预报时效的延长而增加,这主要与区域模式内部大尺度系统的误差随积分时间增长有关。(3)典型个例分析显示,最优方案在较好订正低层风场及切变线动力条件的基础上,经过数值模式各物理过程的协同积分也修正了高湿区等关键热力因子,最终改进了高分辨率区域模式的梅雨模拟。 相似文献
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纬向平均环流预报的系统性误差及其改进 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
大量的月预报实例分析表明,纬向平均环流(本指高度场纬向平均分量)存在明显的系统性预报误差,且在总误差中占有可观的份额。国内外其它模式也存在类似的现象。为克服这一困难,本尝试了“结合”(hybrid)的途径。应用重构相空间理论和非线性时空序列预测方法,在大量历史资料的基础上,构造了月尺度逐侯纬向平均高度场(零波分量)距平场的非线性预报模型。然后,将非线性预报和谱模式动力预报结合起来,即将非线性预报结果转化为模式需要的颅报量,再在模式积分过程中的每一步取代其相应部分,实施过程订正。初步试验结果表明,这种途样合效地减少了模式纬向环流的预报误差;特别是通过非线性波流相互作用,还改善了部分波动分量的预报。 相似文献
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Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Daniel J. Twigt Erik D. De Goede Ernst J. O. Schrama Herman Gerritsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2007,57(4-5):467-484
The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale.
It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated
tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency
when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate
transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal
time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature
cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed
using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly
mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological
forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature
(SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed
against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good
agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply
a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation
in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal
temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing
and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle
can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications. 相似文献
6.
Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅱ: Numerical Simulation Experiments 
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下载免费PDF全文 Microphysics elements and vertical velocity retrieved were incorporated using the nudging method into the initial data assimilation of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) model.Simulation experiments indicated that nudging technique was effective in forcing the model forecast gradually consistent to the observations, yielding the thermodynamically and dynamically balanced analysis field. As viewed from the simulation results, water vapor is vital to precipitation, and it is a governing factor for the amount and duration of precipitation. The initial cloud water, rain water, and vertical velocity determine the strength distribution of convection and precipitation at the beginning time of forecast; the horizontal wind field steers the motion of the mesoscale weather system embedded in and impacts the position of precipitation zone to a large extent. The simulation experiments show that the influence of the initial retrieval data on prediction weakens with the increase of forecast time, and within the first hour of forecast, the retrieval data have an important impact on the evolution of the weather system, but its influence becomes trivial after the first three hours. Changing the nudging coefficient and the integral time-spacing of numerical model will bring some influences to the results. Herein only one radar reflectivity was used, the radar observations did not cover the whole model domain, and some empirical parameters were used in the retrieval method, therefore some differences still lie between simulation and observation to a certain extent, and further studies on several aspects are expected. 相似文献
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A group of seasonal hindcast experiments are conducted using a coupled model known as the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Modelgamil1.11 (FGOALS-g1.11) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG).Two steps are included in our ElNi o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast experiments.The first step is to integrate the coupled GCM with the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) strongly nudged towards the observation from 1971 to 2006.The second step is to remove the SST nudging term.The authors carried out a one-year hindcast by adopting the initial values from SST nudging experiments from the first step on January 1st,April 1st,July 1st,and October 1st from 1982 to 2005.In the SST nudging experiment,the model can reproduce the observed equatorial thermocline anomalies and zonal wind stress anomalies in the Pacific,which demonstrates that the SST nudging approach can provide realistic atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions for seasonal prediction experiments.The model also demonstrates a high Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) score for SST in most of the tropical Pacific,Atlantic Ocean,and some Indian Ocean regions with a 3-month lead.Compared with the persistence ACC score,this model shows much higher ACC scores for the Ni o-3.4 index for a 9-month lead. 相似文献
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A series of test simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived meteorological data on numerical typhoon track prediction. Geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS-5) and NOAA‘s TIROS operational vertical sounder (TOVS) observations are used in the experiments. A twodimensional variation assimilation scheme is developed to assimilate the satellite data directly into the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic meteorological model (MM5). Three-dimensional objective analyses fields based on T213 results and routine observations are employed as the background fields of the initialization. The comparisons of the simulated typhoon tracks are also carried out, which correspond respectively to the initialization scheme with two-dimensional variation (2D- Var), three-dimensional observational nudging and direct assimilation of satellite data. It is found that, comparing with the experiments without satellite data assimilation, the first two assimilation schemes lead to significant improvements on typhoon track prediction. Track errors reduce by 18% at 12 h for 2D- Var and from about 16% at 24 h to about 35% at 48 h for observational nudging. The simulated results based on assimilating different kinds of satellite data are also compared. 相似文献