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随着新能源产业的快速发展, 全球碳酸锂贸易量逐渐增长, 但其出口集中于少数国家, 这意味着全球碳酸锂供应存在一定的风险。为了深入了解全球碳酸锂贸易格局演变、供应危机传播路径及影响, 本文构建了2000—2021年全球碳酸锂贸易网络和级联失效模型, 概述了主要出口国贸易流向和贸易格局演变过程, 并模拟了不同供应危机来源的雪崩规模、传播路径及其影响。我们得到: (1)20多年来全球碳酸锂贸易集中度逐渐增加, 出口前三位国家保持稳定, 而主要进口大国变化明显, 贸易格局已由南美供应全球转变为南美供应东亚; (2)碳酸锂贸易供应危机的影响范围逐渐扩大, 间接传播逐渐占据主导地位; (3)智利供应危机对中日韩的影响程度逐渐扩大, 但对欧洲的影响时间最长; 阿根廷和中国的雪崩规模在上升、传播次数增加, 而美国则相反。本文将贸易格局演变与危机传播结合, 明确了全球碳酸锂主要贸易国智利、阿根廷、中国、德国等作为供应危机来源的影响程度及其传播路径。以上分析结果将有利于维护全球碳酸锂贸易稳定和主要贸易国采取应对策略缓解供应危机。 相似文献
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Zhongqiang Liu Farrokh Nadim Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal Arnaud Mignan Kevin Fleming Byron Quan Luna 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(2):59-74
The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented. 相似文献
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Shelf-to-canyon suspended sediment transport during major storms was studied at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions. Waves, near-bottom currents, temperature and water turbidity were measured on the inner shelf at 28-m water depth and in the Cap de Creus submarine canyon head at 300 m depth from November 2003 to March 2004. Two major storm events producing waves Hs>6 m coming from the E–SE sector took place, the first on 3–4 December 2003 (max Hs: 8.4 m) and the second on 20–22 February 2004 (max Hs: 7 m). During these events, shelf water flowed downcanyon producing strong near-bottom currents on the canyon head due to storm-induced downwelling, which was enhanced by dense shelf water cascading in February 2004. These processes generated different pulses of downcanyon suspended sediment transport. During the peak of both storms, the highest waves and the increasing near-bottom currents resuspended sediment on the canyon head and the adjacent outer shelf causing the first downcanyon sediment transport pulses. The December event ended just after these first pulses, when the induced downwelling finished suddenly due to restoration of shelf water stratification. This event was too short to allow the sediment resuspended on the shallow shelf to reach the canyon head. In contrast, the February event, reinforced by dense shelf water cascading, was long enough to transfer resuspended sediment from shallow shelf areas to the canyon head in two different pulses at the end of the event. The downcanyon transport during these last two pulses was one order of magnitude higher than those during the December event and during the first pulses of the February event and accounted for more than half of the total downcanyon sediment transport during the fall 2003 and winter 2004 period. Major storm events, especially during winter vertical mixing periods, produce major episodes of shelf-to-canyon sediment transport at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions. Hydrographic structure and storm duration are important factors controlling off-shelf sediment transport during these events. 相似文献
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Marine Herrmann Claude Estournel Michel Déqué Patrick Marsaleix Florence Sevault Samuel Somot 《Continental Shelf Research》2008
Dense water formed over the continental shelf and cascading down the slope is responsible for shelf-slope exchanges in many parts of the world ocean, and transports large amounts of sediment and organic matter into the deep ocean. Here we perform numerical modeling experiments to investigate the impact of atmospheric interannual variability and climate change on dense water formation over the Gulf of Lions shelf, in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Results obtained for a 140 years eddy-permitting simulation (1960–2100) performed over the whole Mediterranean Sea under IPCC A2 scenario forcings are used to force a regional eddy-resolving model of the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. 相似文献
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Multiple canyons incise the continental slope at the seaward edge of the continental shelf in the Gulf of Lions and are actively involved in the transfer of sediment from shelf to deep sea. Two canyons in the southwest region of the Gulf of Lions, Lacaze-Duthiers Canyon and Cap de Creus Canyon, were instrumented with bottom-boundary-layer tripods in their heads to evaluate the processes involved in sediment delivery, resuspension and transport. In both canyons, intense cold, dense-water flows carry sediment across the slope. In the Lacaze-Duthiers canyon head (located ∼35 km from the shoreline), dense-water cascading into the canyon was episodic. Currents were highly variable in the canyon head, and responded to interactions between the along-slope Northern Current and the sharp walls of the canyon. Inertial and other high-frequency fluctuations were associated with suspended-sediment concentrations of ∼5 mg/l. In Cap de Creus canyon head (located ∼14 km from the shoreline), downslope currents were higher in magnitude and more persistent than in Lacaze-Duthiers canyon head. Greater suspended-sediment concentrations (peaks up to 20 mg/l) were observed in Cap de Creus Canyon due to resuspension of the canyon seabed during dense-water cascading events. The similarities and contrasts between processes in these two canyon heads emphasize the importance of the interaction of currents with sharp canyon bathymetry. The data also suggest that cold, dense-water flows have more potential to carry sediment to the slope on narrow shelves, and may more efficiently transfer that sediment to the deep sea where a smooth transition between shelf and slope exists. 相似文献
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多尺度地理空间数据增量级联更新方法是增强地理空间数据的现势性的重要手段之一。级联更新包括多尺度数据匹配、关联关系建立、匹配与变化检测、增量信息制图综合、级联更新等步骤,其中,相邻比例尺数据匹配是多尺度数据关联关系建立的基本方法,也是实现级联更新的重要基础。针对现有方法中多尺度同名实体间的关联关系匹配的精度和效率问题,本文提出了基于自然格网索引的多尺度面实体增量级联更新方法。首先,检测出同源同尺度矢量空间数据发生变化的增量包;其次通过自然格网索引确定更新实体所在格网位置,并进行删除、自动或手动更新;最后实施制图综合、接边以及多尺度面实体增量级联更新信息传递操作。以赣州市虎山乡部分区域居民地要素为例,实验结果表明：(1)在匹配阈值为0.51的情况下,相较于直接匹配的方法,采用本文提出的自然格网索引方法进行匹配所消耗的时间减少了88.4%,查全率和查准率分别提升了5%和4%,充分说明了自然格网索引方法在匹配相邻尺度间地理要素时的必要性;(2)相较于传统的Hausdorff距离、欧式距离和质心包含3种匹配方法,本文所提出的方法在耗时（1.34 s）、查全率（66.5%）和查准率（94.1%）方... 相似文献
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Changing local land systems: Implications of a Chinese rubber plantation in Nambak District,Lao PDR 
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下载免费PDF全文 Cecilie Friis Anette Reenberg Andreas Heinimann Oliver Schönweger 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2016,37(1):25-42
This paper investigates the direct and cascading land system consequences of a Chinese company's land acquisition for rubber cultivation in northern Laos. Transnational land acquisitions are increasingly acknowledged as an important driver of direct land use conversion with implications for local land‐based livelihoods. The paper presents an empirical case study of the village of Na Nhang Neua in Nambak District, Luang Prabang Province, using a mixed methods approach to investigate the positive and negative implications for household agricultural strategies, income generation and food security. Combining the conceptual lenses of land systems and livelihood approaches, this paper demonstrates how the land use system has changed substantially because of the establishment of the rubber plantation by the company, notably in the linkages between livestock rearing, upland shifting cultivation and lowland paddy rice cultivation. The changes go beyond the immediate competition for land caused by the rubber plantation: a penalty scheme introduced by the rubber company for damage to rubber trees caused by browsing animals has led the villagers to abandon livestock rearing, causing a cascade of negative effects on the entire land use system, especially on soil fertility, rice yields and food production. 相似文献
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The influence of the phytoplankton size composition in mediating the trophic interactions between the bacteria, phytoplankton, microheterotrophs (<200 μm) and mesozooplankton (>200 μm) was investigated on three occasions in a warm temperate, temporarily open/closed estuary situated along the southern African coastline. Results of the investigation indicated that the microheterotrophs represented the most important consumers of bacteria and chlorophyll (chl)-a <5.0 μm. The low impact of the mesozooplankton on the bacteria and chl-a <5.0 μm during the study appeared to be related to the inability of the larger zooplankton to feed efficiently on small particles. During those periods when total chl-a concentration was dominated by picophytoplankton (<2.0 μm) and microphytoplankton (>20 μm), mesozooplankton were unable to feed efficiently on the chl-a due to feeding constraints. In response to the unfavorable size structure of the phytoplankton assemblages, mesozooplankton appeared to consume the microheterotrophs. The negative impact of the mesozooplankton on the microheterotrophs resulted in a decrease in the impact of these organisms on the bacteria and the chl-a <5.0 μm. This result is consistent with the predator-prey cascades. On the other hand, when the total chl-a was dominated by nanophytoplankton (2–20 μm), mesozooplankton were able to feed directly on the phytoplankton. Results of the study indicate that size structure of the phytoplankton assemblages within estuaries plays an important role in mediating the trophic interactions between the various components of the plankton food web. 相似文献