Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland     

Manfred Stähli  Jan Seibert  James W. Kirchner  Jana von Freyberg  Ilja van Meerveld 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14113

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.  相似文献   

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joachim Grger  Heye Rumohr 《Journal of Sea Research》2006,55(4):266-277

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.  相似文献   

Relative abundance, age, growth, and fecundity of grubby Myoxocephalus aenaeus in Niantic River and Niantic Bay, Long Island Sound     

Edward F. Roseman  Christine A. Tomichek  Tracy Maynard  Jennifer A. Burton 《Journal of Sea Research》2005,53(4):309-318

Grubby (Myoxocephalus aenaeus, Cottidae) is a common benthic fish of inshore waters and estuaries of eastern Long Island Sound; however, little information exists on their life history or population demographics. This study utilised a long-term data series (1976–2002) to assess grubby life history and population demographics and explores trends in the Niantic River and Niantic Bay populations. In addition, we examined the age, size, and fecundity of adult grubby in 2001–02 to determine the population characteristics in the region. Mean grubby catch per unit effort (CPUE) in Niantic Bay ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1976 to 2.9 per trawl in 1984 while river CPUE ranged from 0.4 per trawl in 1977 to 7.6 per trawl in 1989. Catch of grubby in bottom trawls varied seasonally with highest CPUE occurring in winter. Highest entrainment of grubby larvae occurred in 2001 while the lowest entrainment observed was in 1991. Four age classes, 0+ through III+, were derived from otolith analysis (N = 51) although length frequency analysis suggested the possibility of older fish in the population. The total number of eggs in ovaries ranged from 286 to 16 451 for grubby (N = 64) between 52 mm and 155 mm TL. Results of this study indicated a decline in abundance of adult grubby over the 26-year period, possibly related to concurrent declines in eelgrass (Zostera marina) abundance and/or increased water temperature.  相似文献   

Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades     

Yongjun Tian  Hideaki Kidokoro  Tatsuro Watanabe 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,68(2-4):217

Japanese fisheries production in the Japan/East Sea between 1958 and 2003 increased to their peak (1.76 million tons) in the late 1980s and decreased abruptly with the collapse of Japanese sardine. Catch results for 58 fisheries and various environmental time-series data sets and community indices, including mean trophic level (MTL) and Simpson’s diversity index (DI), were used to investigate the impacts of fishing and climate changes on the structure of the fish community in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region of the Japan/East Sea. The long-term trend in fisheries production was largely dependent on the Japanese sardine that, as a single species, contributed up to 60% of the total production in the Japanese waters of the Japan/East Sea during the late 1980s. Excluding Japanese sardine, production of the small pelagic species was higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. This variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, warmer before early 1960s and after 1990s but colder during 1970s and 1980s. The warm-water, large predatory fishes and cold water demersal species show opposite responses to the water temperature in the TWC region, indicating the significant impact of oceanic conditions on fisheries production of the Japan/East Sea. Declines in demersal fishes and invertebrates during 1970s and 1980s suggested some impact of fishing. MTL and DI show a similar variation pattern: higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. In particular, the sharp decline during the 1980s resulted from the abundant sardine catches, suggesting that dominant species have a large effect on the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea. Principal component analysis for 58 time-series data sets of fisheries catches suggested that the fish community varied on inter-annual to inter-decadal scales; the abrupt changes that occurred in the mid-1970s and late 1980s seemed to correspond closely with the climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.  相似文献   

Modeling erosion of sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic     

I. O. Leont'yev   《Coastal Engineering》2003,47(4):413-429

Morphodynamic modeling is employed in the present work to predict the long-term evolution (over the next 100 years) of typical sedimentary coasts in the western Russian Arctic. The studied objects are the coasts of Varandey (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Bay and Harasavey (the Kara Sea). The model developed takes into account both the short-term processes (storm events) and long-term factors (for example, changes in sea level, inter-annual variations in gross sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles are shown to agree well for time scales ranging from weeks to decades. It is revealed that under given environmental conditions, the morphological evolution is strongly influenced by storm surges and associated wind-driven circulation. The water level gradient created by a surge generates a seaward flow at the bed. This outflow is shown to be an important destructive mechanism contributing to the erosion and recession of Arctic coasts. The rate of change is found to depend on both the exposure of the coast (relative to the direction of dominant winds) and its height above the sea. The open coast of Varandey is expected to retreat as much as 300–500 m over 100 years, while recession of the less exposed coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay would not exceed about 100 m/century. If long-term sediment losses are insignificant, the rate of erosion decays with time and the morphodynamic system may tend toward equilibrium. It is concluded that the expected relative sea-level rise (up to 1 m over the nearest 100 years) is non-crucial to the future coastal evolution if an erosion activity is already high enough.  相似文献   

The power of a contaminant monitoring programme to detect linear trends and incidents     

Fryer  R. J.; Nicholson  M. D. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1993,50(2):161-168

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Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea     

I. Vuorinen  J. Hnninen  G. Kornilovs 《Progress in Oceanography》2003,59(4):339-356

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.  相似文献   

全球湿地的状况、未来情景与可持续管理对策   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张永民  赵士洞  郭荣朝 《地球科学进展》2008,23(4):415-420

简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目针对湿地与水编写的《生态系统与人类福祉：湿地与水综合报告》的核心内容。报告表明：①据估算,2000年全球的湿地面积大约为1.28×10⁹hm²,但是这一数据显著偏低,尤其是对新热带区的湿地以及有些特殊类型湿地的估算因数据源问题可能远低于实际面积;②根据MA构建的4种情景的分析结果,未来50年（2000—2050年）内,在对生态系统实行被动式管理的全球协同和实力秩序2种情景中,预计全球的湿地面积将会减少,而在对生态系统实行主动式管理的技术家园和适应组合2种情景中,预计全球的湿地面积将保持相对稳定;③湿地的丧失和退化会对人类福祉和减轻贫困产生极为不利的影响,尤其是对低收入国家湿地附近居民的影响更为严重。为了实现湿地的可持续管理,必须从经济、制度和管理以及相关驱动力方面采取积极对策,减轻湿地生态系统承受的各种压力,保育各项生态特征,增强其自恢复能力,减缓和扭转湿地的丧失和退化趋势。  相似文献   

蚀变岩的蠕变特性研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王旭东  付小敏 《工程地质学报》2008,16(1):27-31

以某水电站工程项目为依托,利用自行研制的试验仪器对大量的蚀变岩做了单轴压缩流变试验。通过对试验数据的处理和分析,得到了该种岩石的流变,并对蚀变岩的蠕变特性进行了分析总结,为工程设计提供了试验依据。  相似文献   

The history and impact of air pollution at Čertovo Lake,southwestern Czech Republic     

Josef Vesely  Heather Almquist-Jacobson  Lisa M. Miller  Stephen A. Norton  Peter Appleby  Aruna S. Dixit  John P. Smol 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,8(3):211-231

This multi-disciplinary investigation documents the longterm effects of atmospheric pollution of metals and acids on a geologically sensitive catchment in the umava Mountains, southwestern Czech Republic, a region with a long history of human disturbance. A 30 cm long sediment core (I) from ertovo Lake was analyzed for natural and artifical radionuclides, metals, diatoms, chrysophytes, and pollen in sediments accumulated during the last 200 years. A second core (II), extending to 95 cm, included sediment judged to be free of atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the Industrial Revolution. Chronostratigraphic markers include several changes in the pollen assemblages corresponding to well-documented changes in land-use, and distinct distributions of ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs and ²⁴¹Am from weapons testing and the 1986 nuclear accident at Chernobyl, Russia. These markers corroborate the ²¹⁰Pb dating and, together, produce a reliable chronology extending back nearly to 1800 A.D.Stratigraphic profiles of Cu, Pb, and Zn in Core I are unlike any previously reported in the literature. Concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn remain generally above 100, 400, and 200 g g^-1, respectively, for the 200 years represented by Core I. These values are unusually high for sediments from a watershed with no known heavy-metal ore bodies. Accumulation rates for Cu, Pb, and Zn, which include both atmospheric and watershed contributions, are also high (ca 1, > 1 and > 1 g cm^-2 yr^-1, respectively) for the same period, although the anthropogenic contribution of Zn rose from nearly zero at 1800 A.D. The Cu and Pb accumulation rates rose dramatically about 1640 A.D.Accumulation rates of anthropogenically-derived Be, a relatively abundant element in the soft coals of the region, are also elevated by about 0.01 g cm^-2 yr^-1 in sediments of this period. Vanadium accumulation rates increased only since 1980 A.D., presumably along with increased consumption of oil.Diatom assemblages illustrate that the lake was acidic (pH between 4.5 and 5) through at least the past 200 years. The pH declined significantly (from ca 5 to 4) between 1960 and 1985 with a slight increase to 4.5 in the last few years. Recent diatom and chrysophyte assemblages suggest high trace metal concentrations, consistent with the present lake-water chemistry.  相似文献