关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

地下厂房洞室群岩爆趋势综合预测方法   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

张倬元  宋建波  李攀峰 《地球科学进展》2004,19(3):451-456

以拉西瓦水电站地下厂房洞室群原设计方案为例，基于其赋存地质条件调研结果和岩爆产生基本条件，对岩爆趋势进行宏观预测；并结合研究区其他高地应力现象，建立了岩爆预测类比判据。进而基于厂房开挖后二次应力场数值计算结果，以所建判据圈定了岩爆可能发生部位及强烈程度。结果表明，将宏观判据与类比判据结合的岩爆综合预测方法，考虑因素全面，也尊重了研究区实际情况，因而合理可行。  相似文献   

Effective macroscopic transport parameters between parallel plates with constant concentration boundaries     

D.R. Webster  D.S. FeltonJ. Luo 《Advances in water resources》2007

A macroscopic transport model is developed, following the Taylor shear dispersion analysis procedure, for a 2D laminar shear flow between parallel plates possessing a constant specified concentration. This idealized geometry models flow with contaminant dissolution at pore-scale in a contaminant source zone and flow in a rock fracture with dissolving walls. We upscale a macroscopic transient transport model with effective transport coefficients of mean velocity, macroscopic dispersion, and first-order mass transfer rate. To validate the macroscopic model the mean concentration, covariance, and wall concentration gradient are compared to the results of numerical simulations of the advection–diffusion equation and the Graetz solution. Results indicate that in the presence of local-scale variations and constant concentration boundaries, the upscaled mean velocity and macrodispersion coefficient differ from those of the Taylor–Aris dispersion, and the mass transfer flux described by the first-order mass transfer model is larger than the diffusive mass flux from the constant wall. In addition, the upscaled first-order mass transfer coefficient in the macroscopic model depends only on the plate gap and diffusion coefficient. Therefore, the upscaled first-order mass transfer coefficient is independent of the mean velocity and travel distance, leading to a constant pore-scale Sherwood number of 12. By contrast, the effective Sherwood number determined by the diffusive mass flux is a function of the Peclet number for small Peclet number, and approaches a constant of 10.3 for large Peclet number.  相似文献   

Onset voltages of atmospheric corona discharges on coniferous trees     

L. Aubrecht  J. Koller  Z. Stanek 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2001,63(18)

In this article, the phenomenon of generation of corona discharges on the tops of trees and plants is described. In the first part of the text, the conditions for generation of this electric field which leads to formation of corona discharge and transfer of electric charge between atmosphere and Earth, are discussed. Experimental results of the onset voltage and its dependence on the discharge parameters are presented. The coincidence between released species from corona burning point and surrounding atmosphere is also discussed. Equation for the calculation of critical intensity of the electric field and onset voltage in dependence on radius of the tip are also discussed and compared with experimental data and equations for current–voltage characteristics are described. The attempt to explain differences between theory and measured data is proposed.  相似文献   

A late Holocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction from Agua Caliente,southern Belize,linked to regional climate variability and cultural change at the Maya polity of Uxbenká     

Megan K. Walsh  Keith M. Prufer  Brendan J. Culleton  Douglas J. Kennett 《Quaternary Research》2014

We report high-resolution macroscopic charcoal, pollen and sedimentological data for Agua Caliente, a freshwater lagoon located in southern Belize, and infer a late Holocene record of human land-use/climate interactions for the nearby prehistoric Maya center of Uxbenká. Land-use activities spanning the initial clearance of forests for agriculture through the drought-linked Maya collapse and continuing into the historic recolonization of the region are all reflected in the record. Human land alteration in association with swidden agriculture is evident early in the record during the Middle Preclassic starting ca. 2600 cal yr BP. Fire slowly tapered off during the Late and Terminal Classic, consistent with the gradual political demise and depopulation of the Uxbenká polity sometime between ca. 1150 and 950 cal yr BP, during a period of multiple droughts evident in a nearby speleothem record. Fire activity was at its lowest during the Maya Postclassic ca. 950–430 cal yr BP, but rose consistent with increasing recolonization of the region between ca. 430 cal yr BP and present. These data suggest that this environmental record provides both a proxy for 2800 years of cultural change, including colonization, growth, decline, and reorganization of regional populations, and an independent confirmation of recent paleoclimate reconstructions from the same region.  相似文献   

Seismotectonic Environment for Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake and Characteristics of Macroscopic Damage     

Xu Xiwei  Rang Yongkang  Zhou Bengang  Yin Gongming  Li Jianhua  and Liu WuzhouInstitute of Geology  CSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1999,(3)

The regional seismotectonic environment for the Zhangbei- Shangyi earthquake is described, and in combination with the distribution of macroscopic seismic intensity, source mechanism solution, and interpretation of lineaments on satellite images, the seismogenic structure for the earthquake and possible seismogenic fault are discussed in this paper. It is suggested that the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is a result of the latest movement along the northwestern termination of the Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone and we should pay serious attention to the future trend of seismic activity along this fault zone.  相似文献   

山东兖州煤田16号煤层的成煤植物研究     

方爱民  郭英廷 《中国煤田地质》1999,11(1):25-29

采取多种手段相结合的研究方法,对山东兖州煤田16号煤层的成煤植物进行了详细的研究。研究了16号煤层中的煤核植物群,还通过孢粉分析及分散角质层的研究,对成煤植物群及其在垂向上的演化进行了细致的研究。结合煤岩光片中煤植体的研究,并对照煤系地层大化石所反映的成煤期前后的植物群面貌恢复了16号煤层的成煤植物群。分析并讨论了上述研究方法在反映成煤植物及其演化方面的作用,认为只有通过这种综合研究才可以较准确地反映成煤植物群面貌及其在成煤过程中的变化。  相似文献   

油水两相渗流多孔介质弹性波传播动力学模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

刘静  李悦静  郑黎明  蒲春生 《地球物理学报》2019,62(9):3545-3556

弹性波在储层渗流场中的传播与衰减规律是研究波场强化采油动力学机理的重要基础.基于等效流体理论和饱和静态流体弹性波传播Biot理论,建立油水两非混相流体渗流条件下储层多孔介质中弹性波传播的动力学模型,通过算例求解与分析,发现含油水两相渗流储层多孔介质中同时存在着3种纵波P1、P2、P3和1种横波S;受频率和含水饱和度的影响,各波波速和品质因子呈现出不同变化规律,4种体波波速与频率、饱和度正相关,P1、P2波品质因子与饱和度正相关,P3和S波品质因子与饱和度负相关;最后,通过与传统静态弹性波模型结果对比,进一步分析了宏观渗流场对弹性波传播特征的影响规律,为揭示低频人工地震波辅助强化采油技术的动力学机理和工艺参数优化提供了重要理论依据.  相似文献   

Comparative Performance of Water Hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) and Water Lettuce (Pista stratiotes) in Preventing Nutrients Build‐up in Municipal Wastewater          下载免费PDF全文

Zubaidah Ismail  Siti Zulaikha Othman  Kim Hing Law  Abdul Halim Sulaiman  Roslan Hashim 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2015,43(4):521-531

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Modeling discrete gas bubble formation and mobilization during subsurface heating of contaminated zones     

Magdalena M. Krol 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(4):537-549

During thermal remediation the increase in subsurface temperature can lead to bubble formation and mobilization. In order to investigate the effect of gas formation on resulting aqueous concentrations, a 2D finite difference flow and mass transport model was developed which incorporates a macroscopic invasion percolation (MIP) model to simulate bubble expansion and movement. The model was used to simulate three soil scenarios with different permeabilities and entry pressures at various operating temperatures and groundwater velocities. It was observed that discrete bubble formation occurred in all three soils, upward mobility being limited by lower temperatures and higher entry pressures. Bubble mobilization resulted in a different aqueous mass distribution than if no discrete gas formation was modeled, especially at higher temperatures. This was a result of bubbles moving upwards to cooler areas, then collapsing, and contaminating previously clean zones. The cooling effect also led to possible non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) formation which was not predicted using a model without discrete bubble formation.  相似文献