基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia     

Tafesse Matewos  Tewodros Tefera 《自然地理学》2020,41(1):36-53

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.  相似文献   

对青藏东北缘现今块体划分、运动及变形的初步研究   总被引：19，自引：9，他引：10  

张晓亮  江在森  陈兵  李辉 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):63-67

利用2维非连续变形分析方法（DDA），以位移代替围压作为边界约束力，研究青藏东北缘现今块体划分及其运动变形。根据该地区地质构造及地震活动，以GPS点测量位移作为模拟结果约束点，得出了较合理的块体划分模型和随时间演化的主应变分布图，并把应变高值区与近几年来发生的5级以上地震作对比，得出了研究区内地震危险性可能较大的区域。另外，对模拟的甘青块体与阿拉善块体的边缘带断裂左旋运动做了大概计算。  相似文献   

On a global expansion of the disturbing function in the planar elliptic restricted three-body problem     

C. Beaugé 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(4):313-350

Starting with a simple Taylor-based expansion of the inverse of the distance between two bodies, we are able to obtain a series expansion of the disturbing function of the three-body problem (planar elliptic case) which is valid for all points of the phase space outside the immediate vicinity of the collision points. In particular, the expansion is valid for very high values of the eccentricity of the perturbed body. Furthermore, in the case of an interior mean-motion resonant configuration, the above-mentioned expression is easily averaged with respect to the synodic period, yielding once again a global expansion of (R) valid for very high eccentricities.Comparisons between these results and the numerically computed exact function are presented for various resonances and values of the eccentricity. Maximum errors are determined in each case and their origin is established. Lastly, we discuss the applicability of the present expansion to practical problems.  相似文献   

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Qianggong KANG Shichang YAN Yuping 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2006,16(4):351-358

1 Introduction The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the highest plateau with the most complex topography in the world, covers an area of more than 200km2, with a mean elevation of more than 4000m a.s.l. (Ye and Gao, 1979). Surrounded by the Earth’s highest mountains, such as the Himalayas, Pamir, Kunlun Mountains, the plateau plays a significant role in climate change in China even in the world, thus attracted great attention of researchers. Up to now, many achievements have been gained by…  相似文献   

CARBON DYNAMICS OF WETLAND IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

SONG Chang-chun    WANG Yi-yong  WANG Yue-si  YAN Bai-xing WANG De-xuan  ZHAO Zhi-chun  LOU Yan-jing 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):228-231

1INTRODUCTIONWetlandsplayanimportant roleintheprocessofcar-bonstorage.Thetotalcarbonstoredindifferentkindsofwetlandsisabout15%-35%ofthetotalcarboninthegloballandsoils(POSTetal.,1982;GORHAM,1991).Inaddition,wetlandsaresignificantnaturalsources fortheatmospheric CH4 (MOORE,1994).It isestimatedthatabout110×1012gCH4 originates fromanaerobicdecompositioninthenaturalwetlands,CH4 emission fromthenaturalwetlandsis15%-30%oftheglobalCH4 emission andtheCH4 emission from thepeat land at hi…  相似文献   

Tidal effects on temperature front in the Yellow Sea   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Ma Jian  Qiao Fangli  Xia Changshui  Yang Yongzeng 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(3):314-321

Temperature front (TF) is one of the important features in the Yellow Sea, which forms in spring, thrives in summer, and fades in autumn as thermocline declines. TF intensity ⋎S _T ⋎ is defined to describe the distribution of TF. Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea was simulated with and without tidal effects. Along 36°N, distribution of TF from the simulated results are compared with the observations, and a quantitative analysis is introduced to evaluate the tidal effects on the forming and maintaining processes of the TF. Tidal mixing and the circulation structure adapting to it are the main causes of the TF. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).  相似文献   

Metamorphism in Archaean greenstone belts: calculated fluid compositions and implications for gold mineralization     

R. POWELL  T. M. WILL  G. N. PHILLIPS 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1991,9(2):141-150

An inescapable consequence of the metamorphism of greenstone belt sequences is the release of a large volume of metamorphic fluid of low salinity with chemical characteristics controlled by the mineral assemblages involved in the devolatilization reactions. For mafic and ultramafic sequences, the composition of fluids released at upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies conditions for the necessary relatively hot geotherm corresponds to those inferred for greenstone gold deposits (X_CO2= 0.2–0.3). This result follows from the calculation of mineral equilibria in the model system CaO–MgO–FeO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–CO₂, using a new, expanded, internally consistent dataset. Greenstone metamorphism cannot have involved much crustal over-thickening, because very shallow levels of greenstone belts are preserved. Such orogeny can be accounted for if compressive deformation of the crust is accompanied by thinning of the mantle lithosphere. In this case, the observed metamorphism, which was contemporaneous with deformation, is of the low-P high-T type. For this type of metamorphism, the metamorphic peak should have occurred earlier at deeper levels in the crust; i.e. the piezothermal array should be of the ‘deeper-earlier’type. However, at shallow crustal levels, the piezothermal array is likely to have been of ‘deeper-later’type, as a consequence of erosion. Thus, while the lower crust reached maximum temperatures, and partially melted to produce the observed granites, mid-crustal levels were releasing fluids prograde into shallow crustal levels that were already retrograde. We propose that these fluids are responsible for the gold mineralization. Thus, the contemporaneity of igneous activity and gold mineralization is a natural consequence of the thermal evolution, and does not mean that the mineralization has to be a consequence of igneous processes. Upward migration of metamorphic fluid, via appropriate structurally controlled pathways, will bring the fluid into contact with mineral assemblages that have equilibrated with a fluid with significantly lower X_CO2. These assemblages are therefore grossly out of equilibrium with the fluid. In the case of infiltrated metabasic rocks, intense carbonation and sulphidation is predicted. If, as seems reasonable, gold is mobilized by the fluid generated by devolatilization, then the combination of processes proposed, most of which are an inevitable consequence of the metamorphism, leads to the formation of greenstone gold deposits predominantly from metamorphic fluids.  相似文献   

Viscosity of the upper mantle from laboratory creep and anelasticity measurements in peridotite at high pressure and temperature     

Hiroki Sato 《Geophysical Journal International》1991,105(3):587-599

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Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data     

Inessa V. Golovanova  Robert N. Harris  Galina V. Selezniova  Petr Stulc 《Global and Planetary Change》2001,29(3-4)

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.  相似文献