基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献   

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA     

Wang Shuangxu  Zhang Xi  Zhang Sixin  Xue Fuping 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(Z1)

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…  相似文献   

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案     

邓爱军  卢敬华 《成都信息工程学院学报》1990,(Z1)

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。  相似文献   

Smeared crack approach: back to the original track     

M. Cervera  M. Chiumenti 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(12):1173-1199

This paper briefly reviews the formulations used over the last 40 years for the solution of problems involving tensile cracking, with both the discrete and the smeared crack approaches. The paper focuses on the smeared approach, identifying as its main drawbacks the observed mesh‐size and mesh‐bias spurious dependence when the method is applied ‘straightly’. A simple isotropic local damage constitutive model is considered, and the (exponential) softening modulus is regularized according to the material fracture energy and the element size. The continuum and discrete mechanical problems corresponding to both the weak discontinuity (smeared cracks) and the strong discontinuity (discrete cracks) approaches are analysed and the question of propagation of the strain localization band (crack) is identified as the main difficulty to be overcome in the numerical procedure. A tracking technique is used to ensure stability of the solution, attaining the necessary convergence properties of the corresponding discrete finite element formulation. Numerical examples show that the formulation derived is stable and remarkably robust. As a consequence, the results obtained do not suffer from spurious mesh‐size or mesh‐bias dependence, comparing very favourably with those obtained with other fracture and continuum mechanics approaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Strain localization in sand: an overview of the experimental results obtained in Grenoble using stereophotogrammetry     

Jacques Desrues  Gioacchino Viggiani 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(4):279-321

Experimental results are presented from the extensive program of drained plane strain compression tests on sand carried out in Grenoble over the last two decades. Systematic analysis of photographs of the deforming specimen allowed for measuring deformations and determining strain fields throughout the test, that is: prior to, at, and after the onset of strain localization. The principles, details and accuracy of the procedure are described, as well as its suitability to properly depict the patterns of deformation. Findings concerning the occurrence and progression of strain localization are discussed. The issues of shear band orientation and thickness are addressed, as well as temporary and persistent complex localization patterns, and the volumetric behaviour inside a band after its formation. The influence of such variables as initial state of the sand (effective stress and relative density), specimen size and slenderness, as well as grain size, is discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd  相似文献   

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  

薄万举  张祖胜  郭良迁 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(1):22-28

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。  相似文献   

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报   总被引：12，自引：7，他引：5  

周硕愚  吴云  李正媛  杜瑞林 《大地测量与地球动力学》2004,24(4):95-101

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。  相似文献   

Prediction of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters using Instance-Based Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Federico Ramírez  Olac Fuentes  Ravi K. Gulati 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(3):163-178

In this article we present a method for the automated prediction of stellar atmospheric parameters from spectral indices. This method uses a genetic algorithm (GA) for the selection of relevant spectral indices and prototypical stars and predicts their properties, using the k-nearest neighbors method (KNN). We have applied the method to predict the effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, luminosity class and spectral class of stars from spectral indices. Our experimental results show that the feature selection performed by the genetic algorithm reduces the running time of KNN up to 92%, and the predictive accuracy error up to 35%. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The second order characteristic condition for plastic flow     

Graham Weir  Roger Young 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2003,27(15):1299-1316

In this paper the second order characteristic (discontinuous bifurcation) condition is derived for the granular flow (fully plastic) equations. This second order bifurcation equation is shown to be formally identical to the first order localization requirement during steady elastoplastic deformation provided the elastic compliance tensor is substituted for the product of the plastic multiplier with the flow Hessian. For isotropic yield and flow functions the invariant form of the characteristic condition is given in detail, as well as an alternative expression in adapted co‐ordinates. The characteristic condition can be regarded as defining a hardening function which is maximized to identify the critical angles. When the method is applied to 3D Coulomb flow, Mohr's 3D fracture plane conditions are obtained uniquely. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报     

张波  杨柏生 《成都信息工程学院学报》1992,(3)

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。  相似文献