Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Qianggong KANG Shichang YAN Yuping 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2006,16(4):351-358

1 Introduction The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the highest plateau with the most complex topography in the world, covers an area of more than 200km2, with a mean elevation of more than 4000m a.s.l. (Ye and Gao, 1979). Surrounded by the Earth’s highest mountains, such as the Himalayas, Pamir, Kunlun Mountains, the plateau plays a significant role in climate change in China even in the world, thus attracted great attention of researchers. Up to now, many achievements have been gained by…  相似文献   

广西沿岸海平面变化的关联维数研究     

梁士楚 《热带海洋学报》2001,20(2):15-19

采用相空间重构和关联维数方法，研究了广西沿岸月平均海平面变化的分形特征，结果表明，相空间重构的延迟时间τ为3△t，当关联维数趋于饱和时，石头埠，北海和龙尾的相空间维数为7，而涠洲岛为9，它们的关联维数平均值平均值分别为6.6507,6.5414,6.7059.  相似文献   

显式完全平方守恒差分格式在近岸海流数值模拟中的应用     

王斌  季仲贞  李荣凤 《热带海洋学报》1994,(3)

用显式完全平方守恒差分格式及其改进分解算法对南海月平均流和海面起伏进行了数值模拟，与隐式完全平方守恒差分格式相比，计算时间可省３—５倍，具有良好的时间效益，而且，其计算效果不比隐式完全平方守恒差分格式差。因此，显式完全平方守恒差分格式及其改进分解算法具有良好的实用价值。  相似文献   

风应力对SST气候场和年际变率作用的诊断及数值研究     

李明  吴洪宝  高维英 《南京气象学院学报》2003,26(2):155-163

相关方法分析Nino3区SSTA和风应力的关系，发现前期风应力距平场与Nino3区SSTA有很好的相关关系，这种相关性超前8个月时就有所显现。影响Nino3区SSTA的主要风应力区域的位置随风应力超前的时间缩短均向中太平洋扩展。数值试验方法研究不同区域的风应力对热带太平洋SST作用的结果表明，强相关区域的风应力对形成和维持热带太平洋SST的气候场的作用不明显，而对SST的年际变率有重要贡献；相反，强相关区域以外的风应力对形成和维持热带太平洋SST的气候场起重要作用，但是对SST的年际变率所起的作用很不理想。  相似文献   

用非线性映象法作钦州市月降水量预报的研究     

何小娟 《气象研究与应用》2003,24(1):23-25

选取反映大气环流作用的500hPa的三个因子场:1956～2001年环流特征量、振幅和位相资料作为预报因子与钦州市1957～2002年5月降水量求相关比,将求得的高相关比因子用非线性映象法制作钦州市1995～2002年5月的降水量预报,试报效果明显。  相似文献   

雷达雨量计资料用于径流模拟(英)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

LIU Xiaoyang  MAO Jietai  ZHU Yuanjing  LI Jiren 《大气科学进展》2003,20(2):213-218

利用测雨雷达结合稠密和稀疏雨量站网估计流域降水分布,将小同方法获得的降水分布输入降水径流模型TOPMODEL,模拟1998,1999夏季GAME/HUBEX试验区梅山和鲇鱼山集水区的径流,并与实测径流进行比较和分析,结果表明:1)雷达结合集水区内雨量计网模拟径流的精度优于传统的用稠密雨量计网模拟径流的精度;2)利用雷达结合集水区外相对稀疏的雨量计网模拟径流的精度和用集水区内稠密雨量计网模拟径流的精度相当,显示了测雨雷达在径流模拟和洪水预报中极大的应用潜力。  相似文献   

水库汛期限制水位控制理论与观念的更新探讨   总被引：60，自引：0，他引：60       下载免费PDF全文

邱瑞田  王本德  周惠成 《水科学进展》2004,15(1):68-72

传统的水库汛限水位的控制,只利用了洪水的统计信息,使水库在汛期要时刻预防设计与校核洪水事件的发生,致使一些水库在汛期不敢蓄水而汛后又无水可蓄,造成洪水资源的浪费。提出水库汛限水位动态控制的新理念及其综合推理模式,适应当前预报技术的发展水平,考虑降雨径流洪水预报与一定时间内的短期降雨预报,排除不可能发生的洪水事件,预报可能发生的洪水,实施水库汛限水位的动态控制。但预报不可避免地存在误差,当小概率预报误差事件发生时,仍可采取弥补措施以确保大坝的防洪安全。  相似文献   

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season     

LIN Jian  Gabor BALINT  Balazs GAUZER 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(2):241-252

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.  相似文献   

Flood forecasting and infiltration modeling/Prévision de crue et modélisation de l’infiltration     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)

Abstract

Abstract The role of accuracy in the representation of infiltration on the effectiveness of real-time flood forecasting models was investigated. A simple semi-distributed model of conceptual type with adaptive estimate of hydraulic characteristics included in the infiltration component was selected. Infiltration was described by a very accurate approach recently formulated for complex rainfall patterns, or alternatively through a simpler formulation known as an extension of the classical time compression approximation. The results indicated that, for situations involving a significant rainfall variability in space, the inaccuracy in the representation of infiltration cannot be corrected by the adaptive component of the rainfall–runoff model. A preliminary analysis of the role of an approximation of saturated hydraulic conductivity to be used in each homogeneous area of the semi-distributed model used both in non-adaptive version and in real-time is also presented.  相似文献   

Integration of remote sensing data into hydrological models for reservoir management     

C. LOUMAGNE  M. NORMAND  M. RIFFARD  A. WEISSE  A. QUESNEY  S. LE HÉGARAT-MASCLE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):89-102

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the methodology set up to derive catchment soil moisture from Earth Observation (EO) data using microwave spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from ERS satellites and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models. The methodology used to derive EO data is based on the appropriate selection of land cover types for which the radar signal is mainly sensitive to soil moisture variations. Then a hydrological model is chosen, which can take advantage of the new information brought by remote sensing. The assimilation of soil moisture deduced from EO data into hydrological models is based principally on model parameter updating. The main assumption of this method is that the better the model simulates the current hydrological system, the better the following forecast will be. Another methodology used is a sequential one based on Kalman filtering. These methods have been put forward for use in the European AIMWATER project on the Seine catchment upstream of Paris (France) where dams are operated to alleviate floods in the Paris area.  相似文献