海浪日最大波高序列的一种标度性质   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

尉华  沈正 《海洋湖沼通报》1994,(4):1-8

应用重标度分析方法研究小麦岛海洋观测站１９６１－１９８０年二十年海浪日最大波高序列时发现，该序列并不是相互独立的，而是具有记忆性和持久性，详细的论证表明分式布朗运动模型是描述海浪日最大波高序列的一个较好的模型，同时，应用分式布朗运动模型我们找到了存在于海浪日最大波高序列中的一种标度性质－累积离差（ｔ）的统计自仿射性。  相似文献   

数值预报产品在夏季持续高温预报中的释用   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

汪秀清  杨雪艳  石大明 《气象科技》2004,32(Z1):47-49

利用 1999～ 2 0 0 2年 6～ 8月 96～ 192h日本数值预报产品 85 0hPa气温与吉林省的日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温 (长春市 )资料 ,通过线性分析 ,找出了日本数值预报产品的 85 0hPa气温与吉林省地面日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温的对应关系 :吉林省 6～ 8月日平均气温在 96～ 192h的 85 0hPa日本数值预报长春站日平均值上加 6 6～ 4 1℃ ,6～ 8月的极端最高气温在相应的日本数值预报产品上加 9 3～ 13 0℃。  相似文献   

延庆-张家口地区复杂地形冬季山谷风特征分析   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4  

贾春晖  窦晶晶  苗世光  王迎春 《气象学报》2019,77(3):475-488

基于2016年12月—2017年2月和2017年12月—2018年2月两年冬季的近地面自动气象站逐时观测数据以及张家口探空数据分析延庆-张家口一带（包括张家口崇礼、赤城、海坨、小五台山区,延怀、怀涿、洋河、蔚县盆地以及北京延庆、昌平、怀柔部分平原地区）复杂地形的风场精细化时、空分布特征,揭示不同复杂地形下局地风场的时、空变化规律,加深对复杂地形动力、热力作用对近地面风场影响的认识,为冬季山区风场预报以及复杂地形数值模式改进提供参考。结果表明:晴朗小风天风持续性作为矢量平均风速和标量平均风速的比值,可以作为研究风场变化规律的重要参数。根据风持续性的日变化特征,可以将研究区域内所有站点分为10种类型,分别代表不同局地地形特征的影响,风持续与风向变化的相关也很强。研究区域主要有3种类型的地形风:斜坡风、峡谷风以及较大尺度的山区平原风。不同地形特征下的风场、风持续性存在明显不同的日变化特征,山风和谷风相互转化的时间也不同,山区最早,盆地次之,平原区最晚;山风时段持续时间较谷风时段长,风速小;晴朗小风天实测风反映了实际风场的特征,而排除环境背景风场,弱化地形动力作用后整个冬季的局地风作为理论山谷风,更能反映热力作用下的山谷风特征。   相似文献   

Fractal analysis of long-range paleoclimatic data: Oxygen isotope record of pacific core V28-239   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Richard H. Fluegeman Jr.  R. Scott Snow 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,131(1-2):307-313

R/S analysis of the oxygen isotope curve of Pacific core V28-239 yields a fractal dimension of 1.22. This value is considered to characterize global climatic change over the last 2 million years as expressed by changing O¹⁸ ratios and confirms that climatic variations are characterized by long-term persistence. The fractal dimension of 1.22 compares favorably with the approximate fractal dimension of 1.26 for annual precipitation records for nine major cities in the United States. Although the precipitation and oxygen isotope data are measured in different physical units and recorded at different time scales, fractal analysis allows for a mathematical comparison of the two phenomena. Additionally, since the fractal dimensions of the oxygen isotope and precipitation records are similar, it is implied that such fractal dimensions are characteristic of climate change over the spectral range of 10 to 10⁶ years. Given this temperature curves based on fractal parameters of long-term O¹⁸ data could be constructed which would allow examination of characteristics of temperature variation over tens and hundreds of years. Such studies may allow the establishment of limits on natural temperature variation and document the persistence of temperature trends through time. If these trends and limits can be resolved, long-range climatic prediction is feasible.  相似文献   

THE RESPONSE OF SUMMER DRYNESS/WETNESS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA TO GLOBAL WARMING   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Huang Jiayou 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,8(1):41-50

Using the data of summer(June—August)precipitation during the period of 1951—1990 in 14 stations over NorthChina,the wetness probability(WP)series based on gamma distribution has been built.Main temporal and spatial char-acteristics for the series of WP in the stations are extracted by using empirical orthogonal functions(EOFs).The spatialpatterns show that the dryness/wetness variations in the stations in the area are consistent with each other and its maincharacteristics can be represented by the WP series in Beijing.Having analysed the WP series of 120 years(1870—1989)in Beijing,the results show that the dry tendency has a re-sponse to the global warming.The variation of the dryness/wetness in the stations is associated with the temperaturevariation in the Northern Hemisphere.Their relation is negative.The degree of the reliance is associated with the centuryvariation of the temperature.  相似文献   

Centrifuge Modeling of Rock Slopes Susceptible to Block Toppling   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J. H. Zhang  Z. Y. Chen  X. G. Wang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2007,40(4):363-382

Summary This paper presents the results of centrifuge tests that were aimed at validating the Goodman-Bray method for rock slope toppling analysis. The Goodman-Bray method was extended by the authors to accommodate non-persistent basal planes of rock columns. Two gypsum column models, with and without anchors were used to represent the failure modes. Measured critical centrifuge accelerations were in agreement with the results obtained from numerical modeling. A background of the toppling slope failures associated with a large hydropower project in China instigated the need for the centrifuge study. The centrifuge model tests used an artificial rock. The observed failure mode did not follow a straight failure plane as proposed by Goodman and Bray. The failures revealed a bi-planar slip surface with a deep-seated portion near the toe of the slope. The outcomes of the centrifuge tests illustrated the need to search for the critical failure surface when performing a toppling analysis. The search technique is similar to that usually performed in a conventional sliding analysis.  相似文献   

Content of mercury in leaves of Spartina alterniflora Loisel. in Georgia,U.S.A.: an update     

S.Y. Newell  R.E. Hicks  M. Nicora 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1982,14(4):465-469

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Estimation of Block Sizes for Rock Masses with Non-persistent Joints   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

B. H. Kim  M. Cai  P. K. Kaiser  H. S. Yang 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2007,40(2):169-192

Summary  Discontinuities or joints in the rock mass have various shapes and sizes. Along with the joint orientation and spacing, the joint persistence, or the relative size of the joint, is one of the most important factors in determining the block sizes of jointed rock masses. Although the importance of joint persistence on the overall rock mass strength has long been identified, the impact of persistence on rock strength is in most current rock mass classification systems underrepresented. If joints are assumed to be persistent, as is the case in most designs, the sizes of the rock blocks tend to be underestimated. This can lead to more removable blocks than actually exist in-situ. In addition, a poor understanding of the rock bridge strength may lead to lower rock mass strengths, and consequently, to excessive expenditure on rock support. In this study, we suggest and verify a method for the determination of the block sizes considering joint persistence. The idea emerges from a quantitative approach to apply the GSI system for rock mass classification, in which the accurate block size is required. There is a need to statistically analyze how the distribution of rock bridges according to the combination of joint orientation, spacing, and persistence will affect the actual size of each individual block. For this purpose, we generate various combinations of joints with different geometric conditions by the orthogonal arrays using the distinct element analysis tools of UDEC and 3DEC. Equivalent block sizes (areas in 2D and volumes in 3D) and their distributions are obtained from the numerical simulation. Correlation analysis is then performed to relate the block sizes predicted by the empirical equation to those obtained from the numerical model simulation. The results support the concept of equivalent block size proposed by Cai et al. (2004, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci., 41(1), 3–19).  相似文献   

Analytical formulas for the geometric and inertia quantities of the largest removable blocks around tunnels     

Fulvio Tonon 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2007,31(11):1301-1327

This paper presents algorithms for determining the vertices of the maximum removable block (MB) created by a joint pyramid (JP) around a tunnel when discontinuities are fully persistent. It is shown that an MB cannot be formed by more than 4 discontinuities and this drastically limits the proliferation of rock blocks that need to be analysed. The non‐convex block obtained after the MB is tunnelled through (real maximum block, RMB) is partitioned into a set of tetrahedra, and procedures are given for determining the vertices of these tetrahedra. Geometric and inertia quantities needed for stability analysis and support/reinforcement design are determined as functions of the calculated vertices' co‐ordinates. These quantities are: RMB's volume, face areas, perimeter of the excavated surface, centroid and inertia tensor. The algorithms for their calculation are at least two times faster than other algorithms previously proposed in other applications. It is shown that the formulations presented by Goodman and Shi for translational analysis and by Tonon for rotatability analysis can be used to analyse the RMBs using the geometric quantities presented. A numerical example is presented among those used to verify these analytical procedures and their implementation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

陆虹  翟盘茂  覃卫坚  金龙  谢敏  钱晰  赵华生 《应用气象学报》2015,26(5):513-524

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。  相似文献