SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models     

Ashu Jain  K. P. Sudheer  Sanaga Srinivasulu 《水文研究》2004,18(3):571-581

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报   总被引：12，自引：7，他引：5  

周硕愚  吴云  李正媛  杜瑞林 《大地测量与地球动力学》2004,24(4):95-101

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。  相似文献   

Comments on ‘A comparative study of ANN and neuro-fuzzy for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass’     

Tarkan Erdik  Zekai Şen 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(6):973-974

Singh et al (2005) examined the potential of the ANN and neuro-fuzzy systems application for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass. However, the model proposed by them has some drawbacks according to fuzzy logic principles. This discussion will focus on the main fuzzy logic principles which authors and potential readers should take into consideration.  相似文献   

毛蚶人工育苗技术   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

刘爱英  马云聪  赵光环  吕振波  徐宗法  王育红 《海洋湖沼通报》2005,(1):86-90

根据对毛蚶性腺发育、产卵孵化、浮游幼虫及稚贝习性等的研究，初步探索了其人工育苗中主要技术环节。2龄毛蚶全为雄性或雌雄同体，3龄以上群体雌性占70％以上。26．6～27．4℃，受精卵22h发育到D形幼虫；26．5～23．0℃，D形幼虫经过15天发育到眼点幼虫；25．O～20．0℃，投附着基、13天左右稚贝壳长达到600μm时，可以出池到室外进行中间育成。  相似文献   

智能潜器的集成仿真系统     

庞永杰  徐玉如  尚游  彭良 《海洋工程》1997,(4)

本文介绍了智能潜器集成仿真系统的硬、软件结构．通过这一系统所展示的水下虚拟仿真环境能够在研究和开发智能潜器的控制体系结构、潜器载体的水动力学、信息融合和目标识别等工作中发挥巨大作用  相似文献   

赤点石斑鱼人工配合饵料中蛋白质最适含量的研究   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11  

陈学豪  林利民  洪惠馨 《台湾海峡》1995,(4)

本文探讨了不同蛋白质含量的配合饵料对赤点石斑鱼（Epinephelusakaara）生长的影响。通过60d度验得出：在各配合饵料组中，蛋白质含量为49．52％的试验的相对增重率（46．84％）体长相对增长率（15．96％）、蛋白质效率（60．35％）和饵料转化率（29．85％）等均为最佳。配合饵料组鱼体肌肉营养成分（蛋白质、脂肪、氨基酸和鲜味氨基酸）也均优于对照组，而更接近野生鱼。经回归方程分析，赤点石斑鱼人工配合饵料中蛋白质最适含量为48．37％～49．24％。  相似文献   

地形坡度对多金属结核分布的控制作用   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3  

王英  李家彪  韩喜球  吴自银 《海洋学报》2001,23(1):60-65

选取我国东太平洋多金属结核开辟区内的一个区域作为研究区,利用人工神经网络中应用最为广泛的BP网络,建立控制多金属结核分布的地质因素与多金属结核分布之间的映射关系,探讨地形坡度对多金属结核分布的控制作用.结果表明,在经度、纬度、水深、坡度四个因素中,坡度对结核分布影响程度最大;多金属结核主要分布于坡度小于5°的地方;当坡度小于5°时,丰度与地形坡度呈正相关,品位与地形坡度呈负相关,丰度与品位呈负相关;品位与坡度似呈指数关系,坡度增大,品位降低.  相似文献   

人工鱼礁工程的风险评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘德辅  刘伟伟  庞亮 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2007,37(2):317-322

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。  相似文献   

扇贝的养殖环境及其体内的细菌学分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宋庆云  罗挽涛  王文兴  薛清刚 《海洋科学进展》1997,(3)

自1992年9月～1994年11月，对青岛胶州湾养殖的扇贝及环境中的细菌组成和某些生态学特性进行了调查。养殖区表层海水中异养菌和弧菌平均数各波动于（21．2～39．7）×102／cm3和（7．3～19．2）×102／cm3之间。其中1号和4号站位的菌数比其它越位都高，这和它们靠近码头，受到附近的排水污染有关。在扇贝的消化盲囊和性腺内也分离到异养菌和弧菌，分别为103～105个g和103～105个／g。这些细菌可能因扇贝遇到环境改变防御能力下降时，扩散到其它器官并大量繁殖，因而造成感染而死亡。从对分离菌的药物敏感试验结果看，近年一些菌株对原来敏感的药物产生了抗药性，如四环索和链霉素，今后在育苗过程中避免滥用抗菌药物是十分重要的。  相似文献