The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
One of Piers Blaikie’s most important contributions to the development of political ecology is his critique of land and resource conservation policy in the global South. In this paper I trace the development of Blaikie’s ideas about the policy relevance of political ecology, focusing particularly on the challenges posed by the introduction of poststructural social theory into the field. I begin by revisiting Blaikie’s earlier critiques of environment and development policy. This will provide the departure point to explore how his thinking on the relationship of theory and policy and of academic and development practices has evolved in subsequent writings. I have invented two personas, “early Blaikie” and “late Blaikie”, to facilitate this task. Second, I want to probe some of the challenges that late Blaikie presents for doing political ecology research, to some extent by pitting early Blaikie against late Blaikie and letting them hash it out. Third, I turn to my own and others’ research and consultation experiences as a way to examine the possibilities for reconciling theoretically driven critiques with policy relevant research. 相似文献
An inherent tension exists between legal approaches to nature conservation and fisheries management in the European Union, as the former remains the remit of Member States while the latter is under the exclusive legislative jurisdiction of the European Community (EC). This tension is of particular importance when addressing the conservation of habitats or species that are under threat from fishing activities. This article examines recent developments in offshore marine conservation in the North-East Atlantic in light of the legislative developments and political frameworks that are currently evolving. By analysing the emergency closure of the Darwin Mounds area of cold-water corals and the UK pair-trawl ban, it becomes evident that the precautionary principle is a key factor in the tension between fisheries management and marine nature conservation, and is not always taken into account. 相似文献
The cod resources in the Barents Sea constitute the most important fisheries in Norway. In order to reduce resource allocation conflicts among different gear and vessel groups and to ensure profit for all participants throughout the value chain, the sector is thoroughly organized. The institutions established to ensure long-term sustainability, have been developed within the framework of a joint Norwegian–Russian fisheries management regime. However, due to a very high fishing mortality, the cod stock is now under severe pressure. In addition, a major part of the cod fisheries is highly seasonal and unable to be a stable supplier to neither the land-based industry nor demanding international markets. In parallel, cod farming is expected to become a new emerging industry, with potential to copy the success of farmed Atlantic salmon. Many actors within the cod fisheries fear the future competition from the growing cod farming sector. With reference to important attributes that characterize the cod fisheries and cod farming, this paper discusses how a future farming industry may affect the traditional cod fisheries. Moreover, we discuss how the fisheries may be forced to organize in the future to encounter the expected competition from cod farming. 相似文献
Over 300 natural scientists in 53 nations are taking part in the Census of Marine Life (CoML) to investigate what lived, what lives, and what will live in the oceans. The CoML is a scientific experiment that is exploring the limits of ocean science. The paper discusses the potential applications of CoML research and the mechanisms by which the potential benefits can be measured and preserved. I recommend developing and integrating policy advisory committees with the natural science activities to both maximize the benefits of the research and to avoid unintended consequences. 相似文献
Being a littoral state, Malaysian maritime sectors provide the basis for the growth and development of marine-related activities. As the country enters the new millennium along with the ‘2020 Vision’ which serves as the basic template against which the economic performance of these sectors should be judged, it poses a new challenge for Malaysia in developing these sectors. This paper attempts to address three basic issues: Firstly, is there any national ocean policy in place? Secondly, are the maritime sectors adequately organized to play an important role in achieving the objectives? Thirdly, what are the opportunities available in developing the ocean?It can be seen that existing policies to develop comprehensive ocean governance have not received the full attention they deserve. Organizational structures governing the ocean for implementing national policies are well in place but in a fragmented and uncoordinated fashion. As a result, sectoral and intersectoral management problems were created such as multiple-use conflicts, overlapping of jurisdiction and duplication of efforts. Environmental problems have also not been properly addressed. A few sectors have been identified as offering opportunities to further develop the Malaysian maritime areas. Among these are marine education and human resources development, marine tourism and the seafood industry. 相似文献
ABSTRACT Environmental sustainability and the long-term wellbeing of Māori (the indigenous people of New Zealand) are interdependent and degradation of landscapes risks the progressive degradation of Māori wellbeing. The present study developed an analysis framework based on Ki Uta Ki Tai (holistic-mountains to the sea- management philosophy advocated by Ngāi Tahu) for exploring relationships between landcover and Māori values to enable predictions of cultural values through space and time. We used this framework to predict how two Māori values (Overall Health and Cultural Land Use) have been altered as a result of landcover change between 2001–2012 in three Canterbury catchments. The area of native vegetation declined while exotic pasture increased between 2001–2012, and there were corresponding declines in both cultural health scores. These results suggest that the change in landcover has reduced the ability of the landscape to support Māori values. This framework for assessing changes in Māori values with respect to changing environmental conditions may identify opportunities for Māori to better engage in land use management decisions. 相似文献