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1.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
2.
详细介绍了与SLR观测资料的高精度相适应的解EOP模型的改进，并且在复弧法中使用这个改进模型。当轨道参数为全局量，EOP参数为子弧量时，其中解极移运动Xp，Yp和日长变化率DUTIR的模型的更新，提高了解EOP的精度，特别提高了解DUTIR的精度；同时也提高了整个弧段的定轨精度。在EOP的改进模型中，以周日和半周日为周期的分量虽然对提高EOP本身的精度没有什么帮助，但是对整个弧段定轨精度的提高还是有益的。本文用1995—1999年LAGEOS-1的资料解得的EOP序列精度：Xp达0．43mas，Yp达0．41mas，DUTIR达0．022ms。90天弧长定轨残差好于2cm。 相似文献
3.
Philippe Machetel 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(1):91-97
The numerical models of mantle convection agree to depict avalanches behaviour according to the level of endothermicity of the spinel → perovskite phase change. Their potential effects on the global thermal and dynamical states of the mantle have been computed thanks to a numerical code, which takes into account both the 400-km exothermic and the 660-km endothermic phase changes. The cycle followed by the avalanches is: local layering, destabilization of the 660-km thermal layer, travelling and spreading on the core, and reappearing of the local layering. Therefore, mantle convection is characterized by quiet periods of partial layering embedded in catastrophic events. During the avalanche, the amplitude of the surface velocity is multiplied by two, which would imply an enhanced plate tectonic and ridge activities. The global thermal effects of the avalanche are compatible with a high mantle temperature and an acceleration of Earth's rotation during the Cretaceous. They also offer a coherent explanation to locate the origin of mantle plumes both within the CMB and just below the transition zone. 相似文献
4.
5.
利用自制的鱼类游泳能力测定装置,观察了大海马垂直和水平方向的最大临界游速,描述了大海马的游泳行为,并评估其游泳能力。结果表明:水温25.5℃±1.0℃条件下,体长6 cm个体水平方向的临界游速达到峰值为4.23 cm/s±0.23 cm/s;随体长的增加和减少,临界游速都有所下降,体长至约10 cm时临界游速为2.86 cm/s±0.02 cm/s。该物种在水平游泳时,游泳速度与尾部的倾斜角度有关,倾角越大,速度越大,当倾角达到55°时,速度达到最大值,而大于该角度,身体就失去平衡不能进行逆水流游动。大海马体长在6 cm时达到垂直方向的临界游速峰值,为0.372 cm/s±0.014 cm/s,此时的绝对临界速度为0.085 BL/s±0.010 BL/s。至体长增长到13 cm时,基本趋于稳定,与水平方向游速变化趋势相似。 相似文献
6.
Kuniaki Abe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):453-463
We identified a phase representing the source length of tsunami's in the tide gauge records around Japan. This phase was observed
at tide stations, located in the direction of the long axis of the sources, for four large tsunamis: 1964 Niigata, 1968 Tokachi-oki,
1983 Nihonkaichubu, and 1993 Hokkaido-nanseioki. The phase consists of two continuous crests starting as the initial arrival
and has a time length of 15–47 minutes. This is the time required to propagate across the source area along the long axis.
Strong evidence that the phase is generated at the source is the good correlation between waveform observed at one side and
time-inversed waveform at another side. The correlation results from the instantaneous generation of the source. The source
lengths of 74–254 km were obtained under an assumption of sea depths at the sources and verified to coincide with ones within
a relative error of 15% that were previously obtained by other methods. 相似文献
7.
J. Höpfner 《Journal of Geodesy》2001,75(2-3):137-150
The annual and semiannual residuals derived in the axial angular momentum budget of the solid Earth–atmosphere system reflect
significant signals. They must be caused by further excitation sources. Since, in particular, the contribution for the wind
term from the atmospheric layer between the 10 and 0.3 hPa levels to the seasonal variations in length of day (LOD) is still
missing, it is necessary to extend the top level into the upper stratosphere up to 0.3 hPa. Under the conservation of the
total angular momentum of the entire Earth, variations in the oceanic angular momentum (OAM) and the hydrological angular
momentum (HAM) are further significant excitation sources at seasonal time scales. Focusing on other contributions to the
Earth's axial angular momentum budget, the following data are used in this study: axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM)
data derived for the 10–0.3 hPa layer from 1991 to 1997 for computing the missing wind effects; axial OAM functions as generated
by oceanic general circulation models (GCMs), namely for the ECHAM3 and the MICOM models, available from 1975 to 1994 and
from 1992 to 1994, respectively, for computing the oceanic contributions to LOD changes, and, concerning the HAM variations,
the seasonal estimates of the hydrological contribution as derived by Chao and O'Connor [(1988) Geophys J 94: 263–270]. Using
vector representation, it is shown that the vectors achieve a close balance in the global axial angular momentum budget within
the estimated uncertainties of the momentum quantities on seasonal time scales.
Received: 6 April 2000 / Accepted: 13 December 2000 相似文献
8.
9.
1961—2010年东北地区四季开始日及长短变化特征分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
用1961—2010年东北地区90个气象观测站的观测资料,采用钱诚等四季划分的方法,分析了东北地区四季开始日、长短变化特征及其对农业的影响。研究表明:东北地区近50 a来,四季(春、夏、秋、冬)平均开始日分别为4月10日、6月25日、8月11日和10月20日,平均长度分别为80 d、51 d、72 d和171 d,且区域差异比较明显。春季和夏季的开始日在明显提前,分别为-1.46 d/10a、-1.99 d/10a;秋季和冬季的开始日明显推迟,分别为2.05 d/10a、0.90 d/10a。平均春、秋和冬季的持续时间在缩短,分别为-0.54 d/10a、-1.15 d/10a、-2.50 d/10a,春、秋季的变化未通过显著性检验,冬季通过了0.05的显著性检验。夏季时间延长,为3.38 d/10a。春季的提前和秋季的推迟,使农作物适宜生育期延长;同时对作物品种熟性和种植格局也会产生一定的影响。 相似文献
10.
为了探索地表质量迁移对日长变化的激发作用,文章在原始日长变化中扣除了固体潮、10年尺度信号、风和洋流效应,得到残余日长变化.然后分别利用AOH气候模型、SLR数据和CSR、GFZ、JPL提供的RL05版本的GRACE月重力场模型,计算了地表质量迁移对日长变化的激发作用.通过分析发现,和SLR、AOH质量激发相比,在季节性尺度上,3种GRACE质量激发能够更好地解释残余日长变化中周年和半周年的起伏,尤其是在周年项上,3种GRACE质量激发和残余日长变化间十分接近;在季节内尺度上,GRACE (GFZ)质量激发同样可以更好地解释残余日长变化,而GRACE(GFZ)和GRACE(JPL)质量激发由于包含一个周期为5.6个月的信号,与残余日长变化的相干性很低. 相似文献