Dependence of model-based extreme flood estimation on the calibration period: case study of the Kamp River (Austria)     

P. Brigode  E. Paquet  P. Bernardara  J. Gailhard  F. Garavaglia  P. Ribstein 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1424-1437

Abstract

The Kamp River is a particularly interesting case study for testing flood frequency estimation methods, since it experienced a major flood in August 2002. Here, the Kamp catchment is studied in order to quantify the influence of such a remarkable flood event on the calibration of a rainfall–runoff model, in particular when it is used in a stochastic simulation method for flood estimation, by performing numerous rainfall–runoff model calibrations (based on split-sample and bootstrap tests). The results confirmed the usefulness of the multi-period and bootstrap testing schemes for identifying the dependence of model performance and flood estimates on the information contained in the calibration period. The August 2002 event appears to play a dominating role for the Kamp River, since the presence or absence of the event within the calibration sub-periods strongly influences the rainfall–runoff model calibration and the extreme flood estimations that are based on the calibrated model.  相似文献