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近58年来登陆中国热带气旋气候变化特征   总被引:12,自引:1,他引:11  
杨玉华  应明  陈葆德 《气象学报》2009,67(5):689-696
利用1949-2006年<台风年鉴>和<热带气旋年鉴>资料,主要分析了1949-2006年登陆中国热带气旋的频数、登陆位置、登陆季节延续期和登陆强度等要素及其概率分布的年际和年代际变化特征.结果表明:近58年来,登陆中国热带气旋年频数有减少趋势,但登陆时达台风强度的年频数变化不明显;按登陆地点分区统计发现,登陆华南地区的热带低压及(强)热带风暴年频数以减少为主,而登陆东部地区的热带气旋年频数变化不明显.登陆点历年最北位置(最南位置)有南移(弱的北移)趋势,导致登陆点历年南北最大纬度差逐渐减小,这表明热带气旋登陆区域更为集中,在23°-35°N增多,而在35°N以北和23°N以南以减少为主.登陆中国热带气旋季节延续期缩短了近1个月.热带气旋年平均登陆强度及其概率分布偏度有增加趋势,表明登陆的强台风有增加;登陆中国华南和东部地区的台风强度都有增强趋势,前者比后者趋势更明显.另外,热带气旋年最大登陆强度差长期呈现减小的趋势.  相似文献   
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A large number of studies have been done dealing with sinusoidal wave boundary layers in the past. However, ocean waves often have a strong asymmetric shape especially in shallow water, and net of sediment movement occurs. It is envisaged that bottom shear stress and sediment transport behaviors influenced by the effect of asymmetry are different from those in sinusoidal waves. Characteristics of the turbulent boundary layer under breaking waves (saw-tooth) are investigated and described through both laboratory and numerical experiments. A new calculation method for bottom shear stress based on velocity and acceleration terms, theoretical phase difference, φ and the acceleration coefficient, ac expressing the wave skew-ness effect for saw-tooth waves is proposed. The acceleration coefficient was determined empirically from both experimental and baseline kω model results. The new calculation has shown better agreement with the experimental data along a wave cycle for all saw-tooth wave cases compared by other existing methods. It was further applied into sediment transport rate calculation induced by skew waves. Sediment transport rate was formulated by using the existing sheet flow sediment transport rate data under skew waves by Watanabe and Sato [Watanabe, A. and Sato, S., 2004. A sheet-flow transport rate formula for asymmetric, forward-leaning waves and currents. Proc. of 29th ICCE, ASCE, pp. 1703–1714.]. Moreover, the characteristics of the net sediment transport were also examined and a good agreement between the proposed method and experimental data has been found.  相似文献   
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Limited information is available about the use of magnetic susceptibility property to determine soil redistribution in hilly areas of the semi-arid regions. This study was conducted to evaluate the use of magnetic properties to determine soil redistribution along a hill slope following deforestation. The study area is located in the Quaternary hilly region of Lordegan district in west Iran. Ten transects were established in two land uses that included natural Querqus forested and cultivated lands. Soil samples were collected at different positions along the slope and magnetic properties (χlf, χhf, SIRM, ARM, and χfd) and selected physico-chemical properties were determined. The results (based on the χfd, SIRM/ARM) showed that the magnetic susceptibly in the calcareous materials is pre-dominantly derived during the pedogenic processes and the superparamagnetic particles which were transported to lower positions of hill slope following deforestation. The results confirmed that this methodology could be applied for monitoring soil redistribution along the slope in calcareous hilly areas in the semi-arid regions.  相似文献   
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在2000年12号台风(Prapiroon)影响期间,其外围对淮河流域东北部造成了一次罕见的特大暴雨,暴雨中心响水24 h降水量达到800 mm.文中所用的模式是俄克拉荷马大学风暴分析和预测中心研制的一个三维非静力可压缩数值区域预报模式ARPS(V5.2).采用了3层单向嵌套网格,Domain1中心取为(27.5°N,117.5°E),格距45 km,格点数为75×75;Domain2中心取为(31.5°N,119.5°E),格距15 km,格点数为140×140;Domain3中心取为(33.5°N,119.5°E),格距5 km,格点数为180×180;垂直方向分为35层,垂直格距为625 m.所利用的资料为:2000年8月29-31日每日4个时次(00、06、12、18时) 1°×1°的NCEP/ NCAR再分析资料及713雷达资料、GMS-5红外云图、探空报、地面加密资料.物理过程选用简单冰相方案,Kain和Fritsch 积云参数化方案.对逐时的卫星云图、713雷达图像进行数值反演,结合探空资料反演出暴雨中深对流系统的水汽三维分布情况,通过三维同化系统ADAS处理,同化初始场和侧边界条件,再用ARPS模式进行数值积分,从8月29日08时开始到31日08 时结束,积分48 h.并结合雷达资料、红外云图、探空报、地面加密资料等对数值模拟结果进行了对比分析.结果表明:ARPS较好地模拟了在台风移动的左前方、在高空槽与副高之间出现的中尺度强暴雨区,模拟降水区及暴雨中心位置与实况较为一致.利用模拟大气中的水物质模拟了雷达回波,与实际雷达回波进行了对比分析,揭示了该过程中β中尺度对流系统的演变特征,4条对流带的交汇点在响水附近.并将模式模拟的T-lgp图与实际T-lgp图进行了对比分析,揭示了该次暴雨过程的不稳定性.持续的高空风垂直切变为对流系统的发展提供动能,造成对流系统斜压发展,有利于降水集中在某一固定的地点.由于模拟结果与实况较为接近,因此可以利用模拟结果作为对该暴雨过程作进一步研究的基础.  相似文献   
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