Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yoshiki Tsukakoshi  Kunihiko Shimazaki 《Tectonophysics》2006,417(1-2):155

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.  相似文献   

Statistical methods for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity patterns     

Mark V. Matthews  Paul A. Reasenberg 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):357-372

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The influence of stiffness of the true triaxial testing machine on the rupturing and acoustic emission of rocks and its correlation with seismic activities     

Zhaoyong Xu  Shirong Mei  Cantao Zhuang  Peilin Li 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(2):367-379

This paper introduces how the ratioR of the characteristic stiffness of rock samplevs. the stiffness of testing machines would influence the rupturing process and the acoustic emission (AE) on the part of the tested rock samples. Result of the experiment shows: WhenR>0.20, the rock sample would rupture abruptly; whereas whenR<0.20, the rock samples would rupture slowly. When the samples rupture abruptly, the time-dependent variation of the AE rate takes such a pattern:peak value—stable low values—rises to the maximum value (concentration)—drops back to the minimum value (quiescence)—(rises again)—ruptures. Moreover, smallerR-value tends to be associated with longer quiescence and vice versa. WhenR>1.50, no pre-failure quiescence is detected. When the rock samples rupture slowly, the variation pattern of the AE rate (after the stress has increased to more than 50% of the rupturing stress) is as the following:stable low (or high) values—rises (or drops) to its maximum (or minimum) values and then continues for some time—ruptures. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 223–233, 1991. This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.  相似文献   

基于统计学的地震显著平静阈值估计     

姜祥华  陈佳维  解孟雨  孟令媛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(2):23-30

提出具有统计学意义的地震显著平静阈值估算方法,用于中国大陆及川滇、新疆和华北地区中强震活动分析,在不同区域得到不同起始震级的显著平静阈值范围。结果显示:(1)中国大陆7级、6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为3.9—6.2年、7.9—9.6个月和62—70天;(2)川滇地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.1—2.9年和7.0—8.5个月;(3)新疆地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.6—4.0年和8.5—10.5个月;(4)华北地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为11.7—23.4年和5.2—7.7年。  相似文献   

昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王林瑛  陈佩燕  林碧苍  丁秋琴 《地震工程学报》2003,25(1):22-27

昆仑山口西8．1地震前明显地出现大区域地震活动平静、高6值、高调制、低锅值的异常配套现象．回顾性分析了巨大地震前不同时问和空间尺度的地震活动性异常,探讨了巨大地震的预测可能性。  相似文献   

云南水汞在打破M≥5级地震平静后强震前的异常分析     

杨杰英  李永强张立 《高原地震》2003,15(2):17-25

通过普洱6．3、宁蒗6．2级和姚安6．5级3个在省内M≥5级地震平静了10余个月,打破5级平静后发生的M≥6级强震前水汞的异常分析,并着重短临异常研究,结果表明这3次地震前水汞均有中期和短、临异常,中、短、临异常台站数为两头少,中间多。中期异常表现为11％。22％的水汞观测台站震前出现2—10个月的中期异常;短期异常表现为震前2—3个月,平均44％的台站观测到短期异常,最大异常幅度与异常判定线比值在1．3—3．2倍之间：强震前都只有1个台站出现临震异常。短期异常有差异,宁蒗6．2级主震前,短期异常在2次前震前出现,普洱6．3、姚安6．5级地震前,水汞短期异常在打破5级平静的地震前出现,水汞短期异常有活跃、平静的现象。最早出现中期异常的台站相对靠近震中。  相似文献   

Seismicity before and after the two great Sumatra earthquakes of 2004 and 2005     

Sławomir Jerzy Gibowicz  Wojciech Dębski 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(4):343-360

The Harvard CMT catalogue contains 481 shallow earthquakes that occurred between 1 January 1977 and 30 November 2005 within a broad region defined by the geographical latitude from 3°S to 14°N and by the longitude from 91°E to 102°E. There are 230 events that occurred before the great earthquake of 26 December 2004. Their surface distribution is not uniform and the source area of the 2004 great event appears as an area of seismic quiescence with a radius of about 100 km. There are 186 events that occurred between the two great earthquakes of 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005. Practically all of them are located to the northwest from the great earthquake of 2005, that in turn was followed by 63 events, mostly located to the southeast. The cumulative seismic moment from earthquakes before the occurrence of the great event of 2004 increased rather regularly with time, with sudden increase about twenty years and two years before the occurrence of the great event. The seismic moment of earthquakes between the two great events increased rapidly during the first ten-fifteen days, then flattened out and increased slowly with time. After the great event of 2005 the seismic moment shows quiet increase during some 115 days, then sudden jump, followed by very small activity till the end of our observations. From the spatial distribution of seismic moment of earthquakes that occurred before the great event of 2004 it follows that its largest release appeared to the southeast from the great event, around the rupture area of the great earthquake of 2005. The largest release of seismic moment from earthquakes between the two great events is observed in the vicinity of the 2004 event and further up to the north. The seismic moment from earthquakes that occurred after the great event of 2005 was mostly released in its vicinity and further down to the south.  相似文献   

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Max Wyss  & Artak H. Martirosyan 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(2):329-340

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.  相似文献   

The M_L 5.3 Épagny (French Alps) earthquake of 1996 July 15: a long-awaited event on the Vuache Fault     

François Thouvenot  Julien Fréchet  Paul Tapponnier  Jean-Charles Thomas  Benoît Le Brun  Gilles Ménard  Robin Lacassin  Liliane Jenatton  Jean-Robert Grasso  Olivier Coutant  Anne Paul  & Denis Hatzfeld 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,135(3):876-892

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震兆平静的再认识--海城地震30周年有感于经验性地震预报的议论     

许绍燮 《国际地震动态》2005,(12):14-18

从对海城地震时期所关注的平静震兆的再认识中,阐明了经验性地震预报在探索地震预报从无到有的历程中所能发挥的作用。  相似文献