非典型周期和气候突变的识别与判定          下载免费PDF全文

秦建国 《水文》2020,40(1):23-28

通过两种新方法分析了无锡站降水年际变化的突变性、周期性等特征,揭示了旱涝演化的自然规律。研究表明,1934、1978、2013年是我国近现代气候突变的临界点,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;无锡站年际降水的观测历史可分成四个特征不同的时段,每个时段节点对应的都是一次气候突变;气候突变会改变年际降水序列的一致性,分段法研究可以大幅度降低模拟难度、提高预测效率。发现并确认了3个气候突变点,实现了超长缺测中断期(13a)旱涝趋势的精确插补,完成了无锡站近百年降雨序列的周期性分析与旱涝趋势预测模拟,研究成果改变了近现代气候历史无法细分的现状。  相似文献   

Wetland hydroperiod classification in the western prairies using multitemporal synthetic aperture radar          下载免费PDF全文

Joshua S. Montgomery  Chris Hopkinson  Brian Brisco  Shane Patterson  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(10):1476-1490

Wetlands represent one of the world's most biodiverse and threatened ecosystem types and were diminished globally by about two‐thirds in the 20th century. There is continuing decline in wetland quantity and function due to infilling and other human activities. In addition, with climate change, warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration are reducing wetland surface and groundwater supplies, further altering wetland hydrology and vegetation. There is a need to automate inventory and monitoring of wetlands, and as a study system, we investigated the Shepard Slough wetlands complex, which includes numerous wetlands in urban, suburban, and agricultural zones in the prairie pothole region of southern Alberta, Canada. Here, wetlands are generally confined to depressions in the undulating terrain, challenging wetlands inventory and monitoring. This study applied threshold and frequency analysis routines for high‐resolution, single‐polarization (HH) RADARSAT‐2, synthetic aperture radar mapping. This enabled a growing season surface water extent hyroperiod‐based wetland classification, which can support water and wetland resource monitoring. This 3‐year study demonstrated synthetic aperture radar‐derived multitemporal open‐water masks provided an effective index of wetland permanence class, with overall accuracies of 89% to 95% compared with optical validation data, and RMSE between 0.2 and 0.7 m between model and field validation data. This allowed for characterizing the distribution and dynamics of 4 marsh wetlands hydroperiod classes, temporary, seasonal, semipermanent, and permanent, and mapping of the sequential vegetation bands that included emergent, obligate wetland, facultative wetland, and upland plant communities. Hydroperiod variation and surface water extent were found to be influenced by short‐term rainfall events in both wet and dry years. Seasonal hydroperiods in wetlands were particularly variable if there was a decrease in the temporary or semipermanent hydroperiod classes. In years with extreme rain events, the temporary wetlands especially increased relative to longer lasting wetlands (84% in 2015 with significant rainfall events, compared with 42% otherwise).  相似文献   

A multi‐method approach to dating the burial and skeleton of Kiacatoo Man,New South Wales,Australia     

Timothy Pietsch  Justine Kemp  Colin Pardoe  Rainer Grün  Jon Olley  Rachel Wood 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(8):662-673

Kiacatoo Man, a large, rugged Aboriginal adult buried in the Lachlan riverine plains of southeastern Australia, was discovered in 2011. Laser‐ablation uranium series analysis on bone yielded a minimum age for the burial of 27.4 ± 0.4 ka (2σ). Single‐grain, optically stimulated luminescence ages on quartz sediment in which the grave had been dug gave a weighted mean age of 26.4 ± 1.5 ka (1σ). Luminescence samples from the grave infill and from sediment beneath the grave exhibit overdispersed dose distributions consistent with bioturbation or other disturbance, which has obscured the burial signal. The overlap between the minimum (U‐series) and maximum (luminescence) ages places the burial between 27.0 and 29.4 ka (2σ). Luminescence ages obtained from the channel belt of between 28 ± 2 and 25 ± 3 ka indicate that fluvial sedimentation was occurring before the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with the broader geomorphic setting. Together, these results are internally and regionally consistent, and indicate that Kiacatoo Man was one of the more ancient individuals so far identified in Australia. His remains are important to our understanding of patterns of biological variation and other processes that have shaped people in the Murray‐Darling Basin through time. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Solution for a plane strain rough‐walled hydraulic fracture driven by turbulent fluid through impermeable rock          下载免费PDF全文

N. Zolfaghari  E. Dontsov  A. P. Bunger 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(4):587-617

The impact of turbulent flow on plane strain fluid‐driven crack propagation is an important but still poorly understood consideration in hydraulic fracture modeling. The changes that hydraulic fracturing has experienced over the past decade, especially in the area of fracturing fluids, have played a major role in the transition of the typical fluid regime from laminar to turbulent flow. Motivated by the increasing preponderance of high‐rate, water‐driven hydraulic fractures with high Reynolds number, we present a semianalytical solution for the propagation of a plane strain hydraulic fracture driven by a turbulent fluid in an impermeable formation. The formulation uses a power law relationship between the Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor and the scale of the fracture roughness, where one specific manifestation of this generalized friction factor is the classical Gauckler‐Manning‐Strickler approximation for turbulent flow in a rough‐walled channel. Conservation of mass, elasticity, and crack propagation are also solved simultaneously. We obtain a semianalytical solution using an orthogonal polynomial series. An approximate closed‐form solution is enabled by a choice of orthogonal polynomials embedding the near‐tip asymptotic behavior and thus giving very rapid convergence; a precise solution is obtained with 2 terms of the series. By comparison with numerical simulations, we show that the transition region between the laminar and turbulent regimes can be relatively small so that full solutions can often be well approximated by either a fully laminar or fully turbulent solution.  相似文献   

ECOLOGICAL SERIES OF SOIL ANIMALS IN DARLIDAI MOUNTAIN   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

HOUWei-ling FANHong 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2002,12(4):378-382

The ecological series of soil animals under the broad-leaved and pine mixed forest in Darlidai Mountainwas studied. Seven sample plots were selected according to different altitude gradients, which belong to different vegeta-tion types. By investigating and analyzing soil animals in every sample plot it is found that there are 45 groups and 1956individuals, which axe involved in 3 phylums, 7 classes, 16 orders, respectively. The altitude is a key factor which af-fects ecological series of soil animals. Both the groups and individuals of soil animals increase with altitude increasingunder certain conditions, which contrastes with ordinary cases, resulting from special micro-climate in studied area. Thegroups and individuls of soil animals are the most under the broad-leaved and pine forest on the top of the mountain, andthe least under Picea-Abies forest in the foot of the mountain.  相似文献   

MATLAB在运用系统建模处理南海气象数据过程中应用     

董言治  周晓东  娄树理  陈永刚  沈同圣 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(1):76-81

介绍了MATLAB语言特点和系统建模方法的基本理论.根据南海气象数据的实际建模处理过程,给出了建模的详细步骤及其MATLAB实现过程以及MATLABTM的主要实现程序.试验讨论和结果表明利用MATLAB语言可以方便地对南海气象数据用系统建模方法进行建模和处理,MATLAB在运用系统建模法处理南海气象数据方面具有明显的优越性.  相似文献   

基于噪声随机模型的加权观测融合方法     

黄贤源  隋立芬  范玉茹 《测绘学院学报》2009,(1)

信息融合技术中,在各局部传感器的有色观测噪声为一阶AR模型的情况下,可以利用观测扩增方法消除有色噪声的影响,得到最优加权观测融合方程,从而实现状态的最优滤波解。对于有色观测噪声为MA或ARMA模型的情况,观测扩增方法不再适用。提出了基于有色观测噪声随机模型级数展开的方法,求解出各局部传感器有色观测噪声的方差,并利用该方差对加权观测融合滤波器进行了构造。通过计算实例证明,该方法不仅适用于观测噪声为AR模型,同时适用于噪声MA或ARMA模型。  相似文献   

Nutrient transports in a Swedish estuary     

Wayne Wilmot  Peter Toll  Björn Kjerfve 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,21(2):161-184

Himmerfjärd is a Swedish estuary bordering on the Baltic. The estuary lacks astronomical tides and its circulation is driven by winds and freshwater runoff. Because of a tertiary sewage treatment plant located at its inner end, the estuary is becoming increasingly eutrophic. A field study was carried out for a 78-day period in late summer and early fall of 1977 to determine rates of nutrient transport and to construct nutrient budgets. Since physical parameters (current velocity, temperature, salinity, winds and water level changes) were measured more frequently than nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, nitrite and ammonium) it was necessary to develop a suitable method to calculate nutrient flux time series and net nutrient fluxes. Over the study period, Himmerfjärd imported phosphorus and exported nitrogen. Direction of nutrient fluxes and changes in flux direction were consistent with the structure of the baroclinic currents.  相似文献   

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

东秦岭火山岩的地球化学特征和成因模式     

何瑞芳  段联合 《地球科学与环境学报》1993,(2)

熊耳群为玄武粗安岩-英安流纹岩组合,大红口组为粗面岩组合,属B类的过渡型拉斑玄武岩浆系列,具以太华群为岩浆房的壳幔混染型成因;秦岭群和宽坪群为变拉斑玄武岩建造,属A类拉斑玄武岩浆系列,具幔源型成因;二郎坪群和丹凤群属细碧岩-石英角斑岩建造,C类石英角斑岩浆系列与A类拉斑玄武岩浆系列共存,具壳幔双层混合型成因。  相似文献