Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks     

Xin Wei  Lulu Zhang  Hao-Qing Yang  Limin Zhang  Yang-Ping Yao 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):453-467

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.  相似文献   

Large-scale experiments on beach profile evolution and surf and swash zone sediment transport induced by long waves,wave groups and random waves   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T.E. Baldock  J.A. Alsina  I. Caceres  D. Vicinanza  P. Contestabile  H. Power  A. Sanchez-Arcilla 《Coastal Engineering》2011

New large-scale laboratory data are presented on the influence of long waves, bichromatic wave groups and random waves on sediment transport in the surf and swash zones. Physical model testing was performed in the large-scale CIEM wave flume at UPC, Barcelona, as part of the SUSCO (swash zone response under grouping storm conditions) experiment in the Hydralab III program (Vicinanza et al., 2010). Fourteen different wave conditions were used, encompassing monochromatic waves, bichromatic wave groups and random waves. The experiments were designed specifically to compare variations in beach profile evolution between monochromatic waves and unsteady waves with the same mean energy flux. Each test commenced with approximately the same initial profile. The monochromatic conditions were perturbed with free long waves, and then subsequently substituted with bichromatic wave groups with different bandwidth and with random waves with varying groupiness. Beach profile measurements were made at half-hourly and hourly intervals, from which net cross-shore transport rates were calculated for the different wave conditions. Pairs of experiments with slightly different bandwidth or wave grouping show very similar net cross-shore sediment transport patterns, giving high confidence to the data set. Consistent with recent small-scale experiments, the data clearly show that in comparison to monochromatic conditions the bichromatic wave groups reduce onshore transport during accretive conditions and increase offshore transport during erosive conditions. The random waves have a similar influence to the bichromatic wave groups, promoting offshore transport, in comparison to the monochromatic conditions. The data also indicate that the free long waves promote onshore transport, but the conclusions are more tentative as a result of a few errors in the test schedule and modifications to the setup which reduced testing time. The experiments suggest that the inclusion of long wave and wave group sediment transport is important for improved near-shore morphological modeling of cross-shore beach profile evolution, and they provide a very comprehensive and controlled series of tests for evaluating numerical models. It is suggested that the large change in the beach response between monochromatic conditions and wave group conditions is a result of the increased significant and maximum wave heights in the wave groups, as much as the presence of the forced and free long waves induced by the groupiness. The equilibrium state model concept can provide a heuristic explanation of the influence of the wave groups on the bulk beach profile response if their effective relative fall velocity is larger than that of monochromatic waves with the same incident energy flux.  相似文献   

Stress state in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam     

Nguyen Thi Thanh Binh  Tomochika TokunagaNeil R. Goulty  Hoang Phuoc SonMai Van Binh 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(5):973-979

The results presented in this paper are the first published estimates of the complete stress tensor in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam. We analysed in situ stress and pore pressure fields in the sedimentary formations using data from petroleum exploration and production wells to evaluate the stress state in these basins. The data were obtained from the seafloor to 4300 m burial depth and include both hydrostatic and overpressured sections. Minimum horizontal stresses were obtained from extended leak-off tests and mini-fracture tests. Maximum horizontal stresses were estimated from drilling-induced fracture parameters and borehole breakout widths in twelve wells using rock properties measured in the laboratory or estimated empirically from wireline logs. Seven data points are located in sediments, and seventeen data points in igneous basement rocks at depths greater than 3000 m.The estimated magnitudes of σ_H are 70-110% of the σ_v magnitudes. Considering the errors in the stress magnitude estimates, their relative magnitudes suggest that a borderline normal/strike-slip stress regime presently exists in normally pressured sequences of the Nam Con Son and Cuu Long basins. Of the twenty-four data points, twenty have effective stress ratios at a critical stress state for faulting on the assumption that there are faults present that are optimally oriented for failure with friction coefficients of ∼0.5. The results suggest that the stress state in these basins is generally critical.  相似文献   

磷灰石U-Th/He法-&mdash|一种低温热年代计     

《地震地质》2000,22(4):427

回顾了U Th/He测年方法的发展过程 ,简要介绍了该方法测年的原理、分析流程和长α -粒子停止距离校正。然后介绍了近年来在磷灰石He扩散性研究及数值模拟方面取得的一些成果和磷灰石U Th/He热年代计在研究古地貌、岩体构造抬升、盆地热历史演化方面的应用。最后分析了U Th/He测年方法的优、缺点 ,说明这一方法既存在广阔的应用前景 ,又有待于进一步完善、提高  相似文献   

长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型在低能见度预报中的应用     

方楠  谢国权  阮小建  任晨平  姜舒婕  张玮玮 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(5):34-41

利用浙江省义乌市2015—2019年逐小时气象观测数据(相对湿度、风速、地气温差、能见度)和空气质量指数(Air Quality Index, AQI)数据, 分析了义乌地区低能见度天气(观测能见度lt; 10 km)的分布特征和气象要素条件。利用长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short Term Memory Neural Network, LSTM)模型对逐小时能见度进行模拟, 分别对比了观测能见度作为输入变量与否的模拟效果; 根据义乌地区低能见度天气条件的特征, 将模拟时段分为三个时期(11月至翌年2月, 3—6月, 7—10月), 对比了分时期模拟的效果; 以及评估了模型的预报步长。结果表明: 高湿、高污染、气温高于地温和低风速是义乌地区低能见度天气的主要特征。LSTM模型对单站能见度有较好的模拟效果, 当输入参数中加入历史观测能见度时, 能大幅提高模拟准确度, 日均能见度模拟结果均方根误差RMSE=0.63 km, 平均绝对误差MAE=0.51 km, 拟合优度R²=0.99;分时期进行模拟能得到更精准的模拟结果。本研究中选用的输入要素在冬季(11月至翌年2月)模拟效果最好, RMSE=2.35 km, MAE=1.46 km, 低能见度均方根误差RMSE_10 km=1.81 km, 低能见度平均绝对误差MAE_10 km=1.13 km, R²=0.83; 3—6月的模拟中, 输入变量中不加AQI模拟效果更好, 这意味着3—6月义乌地区的低能见度天气以雾天气为主导, 加入过多变量并不一定能提高模型准确度; 随着预报步长增大, 模型预报效果变差, 预测步长等于3 h, R²=0.71, 预测结果已不具备实际应用意义。  相似文献   

A study of Coriolis effects on long waves propagating in an unbounded ocean, channel and basin     

Ashabul Hoque  Azizur Rahman 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(11-12):1701-1705

The effects of Coriolis force on long waves have been discussed based on gravity waves propagating in an unbounded ocean, channel and basin. In case of ocean, results show that the Coriolis effect will be significant and negligible, when the wave period is comparable to 2π/f and much shorter, respectively. Results also show in a channel, the wave amplitude and water particle velocity decrease exponentially in the positive y direction in the northern hemisphere (where f is positive). Moreover, in a basin, the Cotidal lines have been found as curves and rotate counterclockwise around the origin.  相似文献   

A phase-averaged Boussinesq model with effective description of carrier wave group and associated long wave evolution     

K. Nadaoka  K. Raveenthiran 《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(1):21-37

From the phase-resolving improved Boussinesq equations (Beji and Nadaoka, Ocean Engineering 23 (1996) 691), a phase-averaged Boussinesq model for water waves is derived by more effectively describing carrier wave groups and accompanying long wave evolution with less CPU time. Linear shoaling characteristics of carrier wave equations are investigated and found to agree exactly with the analytical expression obtained from the constancy of energy flux for the improved Boussinesq equations themselves, showing that the present model equations are the results of a consistent derivation procedure regarding energy considerations. Numerical simulations of the derived equations for the single wave group and narrow-banded random waves show the validity of the present model and its high performance, especially on the CPU time.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of long waves in shallow water using Incremental Differential Quadrature Method     

M.R. Hashemi  M.J. Abedini  P. Malekzadeh 《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(13):1749-1764

Incremental Differential Quadrature Method (IDQM) as a rapid and accurate method for numerical simulation of Nonlinear Shallow Water (NLSW) waves is employed. To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first endeavor to exploit DQM in coastal hydraulics. The one-dimensional NLSW equations and related boundary conditions are discretized in space and temporal directions by DQM rules and the resulting system of equations are used to compute the state variables in the entire computational domain. It was found that the splitting of total simulation time into a number of smaller time increments, could significantly enhance the performance of the proposed method. Furthermore, results of this study show two main advantages for IDQM compared with other conventional methods, namely; unconditional stability and minimal computational effort. Indeed, using IDQM, one can use a few grid points (in spatial or time direction) without imposing any stability condition on the time step to obtain an accurate convergent solution.  相似文献   

Sea-level fluctuations in a coastal lagoon     

Kuo-Chuin Wong 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1986,22(6)

Sea-level observations made during December, 1979, at six stations in Great South Bay (which is a coastal lagoon on the south shore of Long Island, New York) reveal that there were significant subtidal fluctuations in addition to the tidal oscillations. Harmonic analysis of the tidal oscillations of sea level indicates that M₂ is the dominant tidal constituent. The M₂ amplitude, however, suffered a more than 50% reduction in the interior of the Bay due largely to the narrow inlet. The subtidal sea level fluctuations within the Bay were forced primarily by the low-frequency fluctuations of the adjacent shelf water. The active subtidal exchange induced by this Bay-shelf coupling appeared to have suffered only minor attenuation within the Bay. As a consequence, the variance associated with subtidal sea level fluctuations was greater than that associated with the tidal oscillations over most of Great South Bay.  相似文献   

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

K. M. Brander  R. R. Dickson  M. Edwards 《Progress in Oceanography》2003,58(2-4):175

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton.The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.  相似文献