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社会经济情景的设定是全球气候变化研究的基础,也是气候变化影响评估的关键环节.本文回顾了社会经济情景的发展过程,阐述了共享社会经济路径的主要特点和最新发展趋势,介绍了区域社会经济情景的构建及在灾害风险领域中的应用,最后对共享社会经济路径的发展进行了展望.  相似文献   
3.
基于江西省遥感影像数据和统计年鉴资料,利用地理信息系统技术(GIS),分析江西省1990—2020年社会经济和土地利用类型的时空差异,以摸清人口、经济和土地利用类型的逐年变化情况。结果表明:1) 江西省GDP和人口快速增长,尤其是末期较初期GDP增长了近60倍,经济发展不平衡矛盾减弱。2) 以南昌市为中心的环鄱阳湖区域在江西省经济发展中占据主导地位,部分设区市出现不同程度的经济热点区。3) 江西省人口与GDP时空变化具有一定的相似性,人口分布密度高的区域GDP相对较高,反之亦然。4) 江西省耕地、林地面积总和约占全省国土面积的90%。城乡建设用地面积变化最大,这与社会经济发展有明显关系,各种土地利用类型综合变化速率由大到小依次为城乡建设用地、草地、未利用地、耕地、水域、林地。  相似文献   
4.
安徽省人口年龄结构特征及其社会经济影响研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
汪静 《地理科学》2017,37(11):1728-1735
根据人口普查和抽样调查的数据资料,采用对比分析、聚类分析等研究方法分析了1953~2015年安徽省人口年龄结构时间特征、空间特征。从时间上看,安徽省人口年龄结构不断演变,少儿人口数量从不断增加转变为不断减少,劳动适龄人口比重比较稳定,人口老龄化程度不断加深,总抚养系数和少年儿童抚养系数大幅度下降,老年抚养系数上升;从空间上看,人口年龄结构存在较大地区差异。安徽省人口年龄结构对社会经济发展的影响主要表现为:① 人口老年化导致劳动生产率和经济增长速度的减缓,家庭规模小型化,并对社会养老保障和医疗卫生的挑战;② 少儿人口的不断减少影响教育资源的配置;③ 人口年龄结构的区域差异进一步加剧了安徽区域发展的不平衡性。为了尽可能地减缓人口年龄结构演变对安徽省社会经济发展的不利影响,建议采取如下措施:一是充分利用“人口红利”机遇期,加快经济发展,不断促进社会进步;二是要加强引导,因地施策;三是完善社会保障制度,努力扩大社会保障制度的覆盖面,力争全覆盖,尽量减小城乡差距;四是大力发展养老产业,探索建立满足居家养老、社区养老、机构养老等多种方式需求的政府主导、政策扶持、社会参与、市场运作的社会化养老服务体系。  相似文献   
5.
大河流域的水系统是支撑社会-生态系统的基础,理解水系统的结构变化是深入揭示区域系统演化的关键。基于自然-社会水系统视角,从黄河全流域和二级水资源分区尺度,利用1998—2018年降水、蒸发、径流、社会经济耗水等水系统变量,通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性回归分析方法,分析了水系统要素的变化趋势及结构演变特征。结果表明:在全流域尺度,降水、蒸发分别以4.25 mm·a-1、4.09 mm·a-1的速率上升,但蒸发在空间上的变化更显著;径流量呈现先减少再上升后急剧下降的趋势,且与降水量显著正相关。社会系统耗水量呈现增速减缓的特征,农业灌溉占耗水结构的比例以0.50%的速率逐年下降;城镇公共、居民生活和生态环境耗水比例分别以0.07%、0.29%、0.11%的速率上升。在二级水资源分区尺度,各水系统分异特征明显,兰州至头道拐段及花园口以下区域水系统所支撑社会经济发展的功能已经出现了超载。各水系统要素间具有不同程度的协同演变趋势,在湿润区域,蒸发相较于降水具有明显的滞后现象,但在干旱区域两者变化趋势基本一致。黄河流域水系统要素在时空上均存在明显的异质性,未来人口和经济的进一步发展可能会使区域的水资源压力加剧。  相似文献   
6.
Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach   总被引:3,自引:4,他引:3  
Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).  相似文献   
7.
M W Pasquini  F Harris 《Area》2005,37(1):17-29
Waste disposal constitutes an acute problem in numerous African cities. One solution could lie in the recycling of the nutrient-rich waste into agriculture taking place in and around cities. Farmers involved in vegetable production around Jos, Nigeria, have developed a sophisticated soil fertility management strategy combining inorganic fertilizers, manure and urban waste ash. This paper: (1) investigates the socio-economic constraints linked to obtaining scarce organic inputs, particularly urban waste ash and the health hazards (particularly heavy metal contamination of soil and crops) caused by using this ash and (2) suggests ways to improve use of this important resource.  相似文献   
8.
This paper analyses local level apprenticeship contracts and networks to highlight informal urban livelihoods within the context of socio-economic vulnerability and wider contemporary changes taking place in Koforidua, Ghana. It does so by specifically examining the complex entanglements of interpersonal relationships that characterize apprenticeship contracts within which home-based entrepreneurs and artisans in Koforidua engage in to sustain both current livelihoods, as well as to shore themselves against socio-economic vulnerability triggered in part by adjustment. As a result of the changing geography of the city, network entanglements, comprising resilient ties and egalitarian relations, have become vital to urban livelihoods in this community. However, apprenticeship contracts and the networks they engender can be a double-edged sword. For instance, demands of reciprocity or support from co-network members, neighbours and family, can be so taxing that some individuals opt out of the network. This tension notwithstanding, this paper contends that apprenticeship contracts and the network spaces they create have created a new social cohesion and community that transcend the traditionally known spaces of social support, i.e. ethnic ties, family ties or even institutional support.  相似文献   
9.
Namibia and Botswana differ from other sub-Saharan nations in their record of stable political performance. However, both countries have to face increasing social problems. In the case of Namibia these are still mainly related to the process of post-apartheid national reconciliation and identity building, in the case of Botswana they refer to issues of growing tribal tensions and of a gradual interior restructuring of society. This paper analyzes the various patterns of social transformation in the two countries and examines in what ways state-society relations are different from other African nations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
10.
Obituaries     
《The Geographical journal》2001,167(3):274-275
Helge Marcus Ingstad 1899–2001 By Kirsten A. Seaver
Francis William Carter 1938–2001 By David Turnock  相似文献   
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