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Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes. 相似文献
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Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages. 相似文献
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江南茶区茶叶生产现状和气候资源特征分析 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
开展气候资源分析对茶叶生产具有重要的指导意义。本文采用历史资料收集和实地调查等方式,对江南茶区的茶树品种、茶园面积、茶叶产量等现状,以及气候资源、主要农业气象灾害特征进行了调查和分析,并提出了茶叶生产中存在的问题和灾害应对措施。结果表明：江南茶区茶树主要品种有乌牛早、龙井43、福鼎大白茶、迎霜、鸠坑、黄山种、翠峰、安吉白茶等;江南茶区中,湖北省的茶园面积和茶叶产量位居第一,但单位面积经济效益江苏第一,其次是浙江,尔后依次是湖南、江西、安徽、湖北。全区年平均气温15~20℃,≥10℃活动积温4 500~6 500℃·d,年降水量1 000~1 600 mm,年平均相对湿度达70%~80%左右,年日照时数1 500~1 900 h。热量较优,空气湿润,光照充足,是绿茶生产的气候适宜区域。同时,江南茶区也是茶叶主要农业气象灾害高发区,应加强茶树资源监测和农业气象灾害风险评估等方面的研究,在充分利用3S技术基础上提高茶叶生产应对气候变化的能力,大力推进茶叶精细化气象服务。 相似文献
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依据甘肃省62个气象站1960-2005年的地面气候资料, 分析农作物生育期(3-10月)内气象要素极值的变化趋势, 并用主成分分析方法研究了该变化对农业气象灾害发生趋势的影响.结果表明: 与温度相关的气象要素极值表现出了同平均气温类似的显著上升趋势,其中降水相关的气象要素极值变化说明甘肃省降水结构发生了改变, 极端性有所减弱;其他相关要素中, 最大风速存在明显下降趋势, 蒸发量呈下降趋势、日照时数呈上升趋势, 但都不够显著.大部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈正相联系, 只有很少部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈反相联系.综合分析这些气象极值在甘肃省范围内的变化趋势, 揭示出未来甘肃省干旱灾害倾向于加剧, 而洪涝灾害趋于减轻. 相似文献
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ENSO对全球及中国农业气象灾害和粮食产量影响研究进展 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是全球性年际气候变率的主导模式,ENSO通过影响全球的大气环流,对全球许多地区的气温、降水和由气温、降水异常导致的农业气象灾害（如低温冷害、旱涝灾害等）及农作物生长发育、产量形成产生影响。综述前人对ENSO影响研究进展,所得主要结论如下：1）从全球范围来看,厄尔尼诺年,全球气温偏高,陆地平均年降水量减少;拉尼娜年,全球气温偏低,陆地平均年降水量增加;不同季节和不同类型EN-S0对全球气温和降水的影响有差异。在中国,厄尔尼诺年,大部分地区冬春季气温偏高,夏秋季气温偏低,拉尼娜年,大部分地区冬春季气温偏低,夏秋季气温偏高,不同年代下ENSO对我国气温的影响有所变化;厄尔尼诺年,全国降水以偏少为主,且ENSO对我国不同地区降水的影响与ENSO类型、发展阶段和发生年代有关。2）厄尔尼诺年,我国北方大部分地区初霜冻偏早,吉林延迟型冷害增加,黑龙江低温冷害多发,华北和西北地区易发生干旱;拉尼娜年,我国北方大部分地区初霜冻偏晚,西北地区易发生洪涝。气候变暖背景下,厄尔尼诺与东北低温的关系更为复杂。ENSO循环的不同阶段会影响我国旱涝的地区分布。3）厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年,全球水稻、小麦和玉米均以减产为主,不同国家和地区影响各异。其中,厄尔尼诺年,美国、巴西和阿根廷玉米产量增加,中国和津巴布韦玉米产量降低,印度小麦和水稻及菲律宾、印度尼西亚的雨季水稻均减产;拉尼娜年,美国、巴西和阿根廷玉米减产,印度小麦和水稻增产。在中国,厄尔尼诺对水稻和小麦产量的影响程度与当地灌溉条件有关。以上结论可为我国防御低温冷害、干旱等农业气象灾害,保障粮食安全,制定科学政策提供理论参考。 相似文献
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Spatial pattern and decadal change of agro-meteorological disasters in the main wheat production area of China during 1991-2009 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Agro-meteorological disasters (AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations (AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade (2000-2009) with another decade (1991-2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages. 相似文献
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吾米提·居马太 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(1):132-137
利用1978-2014年洪涝、旱灾、风雹灾及低温冷冻四种农业气象灾害受灾面积、同期粮食平均单产及粮食作物单产有关统计数据，采用线性和灰色关联分析方法，对新疆37a的主要农业气象灾害特征及其对主要粮食作物、主要经济作物单产的影响进行分析。新疆农业气象灾害灾情总体呈受灾面积大、成灾率高、波动幅度大的特点。旱灾和雹灾对新疆的粮食生产危害较大，低温冷冻灾害和洪涝灾害其次。从作物种类来看，不同作物与旱灾受灾面积关联度最大，冬小麦、春小麦和玉米与低温冷冻灾害受灾面积的关联度最小，而棉花和甜菜与洪涝灾受灾面积的关联度最小。旱灾和雹灾是影响新疆农业生产的主要气象灾害。 相似文献