| 3种综合预报方法在华东地区中短期地震预报中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘东旺,沈小七,黄显良.3种综合预报方法在华东地区中短期地震预报中的应用研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2001,22(4):46-53. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘东旺 沈小七 黄显良 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了合理、有效地使用各种地震综合预报方法来加强地震预报工作，本文在检验多个单项测震学指标预报效能的基础上，根据“九五”攻关的思路，采用R值评分方法，在华东地区分区域对综合概率，图像识别，模糊聚类3种地震综合预报方法的预报效能进行了全时空分析和评估。结果认为：（1）3种综合预报方法在华东地区各区域的R评分值普遍较高，但预报效能各区域仍有差别；（2）每种预报方法在华东地区多个区域及全区均能通过97．5％置信水平下的R0值检验，且较4个单项指标的预报效能有明显提高，可用于实际预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 综合概率 图像识别 模糊聚类 效能评价 综合预报 地震预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年3月12日 |
Application of the 3 comprehensive forecasting methods in the medium and short term earthquake prediction in East China Region |
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| Liu Dongwang,Shen Xiaoqi and Huang Xianliang.Application of the 3 comprehensive forecasting methods in the medium and short term earthquake prediction in East China Region[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2001,22(4):46-53. |
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| Authors: | Liu Dongwang Shen Xiaoqi and Huang Xianliang |
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| Abstract: | For fair and efficacious using every comprehensive forecasting method to strengthen the work of earthquake prediction,in this paper,basing on the efficiency evaluation of many monomial seismological parameter,the idea of the Ninth Five plan and the R grade means,we have evaluated the forecasting efficiency on all time space analysis of the 3 Comprehensive Forecasting Methods(CProbability,Patt & Fuzzy Cluster)in East China region.The result indicates:(1)The value of R grade means of the 3 Comprehensive Forecasting Methods is high in every area of the East China region,but the forecast efficiency is different from each other.(2)The efficiency evaluations of the 3 Comprehensive Forecasting Methods are able to pass the test of the R 0 on 97 5% trust level in most areas,and that can be applied in the earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | CProbability Patt Fuzzy Cluster efficiency evaluation comprehensive forecasting |
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