| Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change |
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| 作者姓名： | BAO Ying QIAO Fangli SONG Zhenya |
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| 作者单位： | College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China |
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| 基金项目： | The 973 Project under contract Nos 2010CB950300 and 2010CB950500;the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.40730842;the Public Science and Technology Research Funds projects of ocean under contract No.201105019;the International Cooperation Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of China under contract No.S2011GR0348. |
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| 摘 要： | A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios (called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs). The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a (calculated by carbon) in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.
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| 关 键 词： | ocean carbon cycle model air-sea CO 2 flux anthropogenic carbon pH value |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/11/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/1/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change |
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| BAO Ying,QIAO Fangli,SONG Zhenya.Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2012,31(5):87-97. |
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| Authors: | BAO Ying QIAO Fangli and SONG Zhenya |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China2.First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China |
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| Abstract: | A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO2 concentration and different future scenarios (called Rep-resentative Concentration Pathways,or RCPs).The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs.The net air-sea CO2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a (calculated by carbon) in 2005;however,it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century.The ocean absorbs CO2 mainly in the mid latitude,and releases CO2 in the equator area.However,in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO2 concentration,including RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.In 2100,the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW),and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model.The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution,and would continue to decrease in the 21st century.For the highest concentration sce-nario of RCP8.5,the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO2 from atmosphere. |
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| Keywords: | ocean carbon cycle model air-sea CO2 flux anthropogenic carbon pH value |
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