Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC |
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| Authors: | Li Zhai Blair JW Greenan John Hunter Thomas S James Guoqi Han Phillip MacAulay |
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| Institution: | 1. Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, CanadaLi.Zhai@dfo-mpo.gc.ca;3. Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada;4. Antarctic Climate &5. Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia;6. Pacific Division, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada;7. School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada;8. Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St John's, Newfoundland, Canada |
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| Abstract: | AbstractSea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland. |
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| Keywords: | sea-level rise extremes storm tides allowances IPCC AR5 Atlantic Canada tide gauges vertical land movement GPS GIA |
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