The oil spill behaviour model of the canadian atmospheric environment service. Part II: Evaluation of model guidance for emergency response |
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| Authors: | S Venkatesh VR Neralla W Hume N Parker B Thomson |
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| Institution: | 1. Atmospheric Environment Service , 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario, M3H 5T4;2. Atmospheric Environment Service , Edmonton, Alberta, T6B 2X3 |
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| Abstract: | Abstract In a companion paper the theoretical basis for the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service oil spill behaviour model was discussed along with its evaluation, in non‐real time, using data collected from field experiments and a real spill. This paper deals with the use of the model in real time to provide guidance in support of the emergency created by an oil spill in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The spill of about 2440 barrels of diesel oil occurred in September 1985, the result of storm damage to an artificial island used for hydrocarbon exploration. Model simulations were carried out for two time periods while the spill was being tracked. These simulations identified the marked shifts in the direction of movement of the spill. While the predictive skills for the two time periods varied, with re‐initialization the final observed slick location was predicted to within 2 km. This model prediction was used by the regulatory authorities as guidance information in locating the slick when it could not be easily spotted from the air. The prediction of the size of the slick 27 h after initial time was in very good agreement with observations. A qualitative evaluation of the model‐simulated weathering of the oil was also carried out. |
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| Keywords: | intraseasonal temperature temperature indices extremes El Niño-Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation autocorrelation spectral analysis generalized extreme value analysis |
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