Current seismic quiescence in Greece: Implications for seismic hazard |
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| Authors: | G Chouliaras GN Stavrakakis |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Box 20048, 11810 Athens, Greece |
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| Abstract: | Based on previous observations of the phenomenon of precursory seismic quiescence before crustal main shocks and recent results that indicate an increase in the occurrence of main shocks in the next years, we focus this study on the detection of the seismic quiescence situation in Greece in the beginning of 1999. We use the declustered seismicity catalogue of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens (NOA) from 1968–1998, to investigate the significance of seismic quiescence for the region 19°–29°E and 34°–42°N. We searched for seismicity rate changes at every node of the grid by a moving time window and we present the results for the beginning of 1999. The results map four (4) areas having a quiescence which duration ranges from 3.8 to6 years in the beginning of 1999. Three of these areas have been devestated by catastrophic earthquakes 17–21 years ago and significant quiescence also preceded those main shocks. Based on these results, an estimate of the future seismic hazard of these areas is made. |
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| Keywords: | earthquakes Greece precursory quiescence seismic hazard |
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