| 长程关联及预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 石特临,郭大庆.长程关联及预报方法研究[J].地震研究,1996,19(1):15-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石特临 郭大庆 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局兰州地震研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 长程关联存在于许多的自然现象和过程中，分数ＡＲＩＭＡ模型很好地反映了这种特性。本结合地震活动，探索了分数ＡＲＩＭＡ模型的建模预报方法，所得结果在很小的误差范围内跟实际情况一致，表明了本方法的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 自相似 地震预报 长程关联 预报法 |
STUDY ON LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE AND PREDICTIVE MATHOD |
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| Shi Telin,Guo Daqing,Yang Liming.STUDY ON LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE AND PREDICTIVE MATHOD[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1996,19(1):15-20. |
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| Authors: | Shi Telin Guo Daqing Yang Liming |
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| Abstract: | Long-range dependence exists in many natural phenomena and process.The fractional ARIMA model can betterly reflect this kind of property.In this paper the fractional ARIMA model has been researched in fitting model and predictive method according to the seismicity.The results of prediction by the model has been in accordance with the real magnitude of earthquakes with very low error which indicates that the method has practical value for earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Self-similarity Model Earthquake prediction |
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