| 流感流行期大气环境特征及流感分级预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 山义昌,徐太安,鲁丹,郑学山,杜恒欣.流感流行期大气环境特征及流感分级预报[J].气象科技,2003,31(6):389-392396. |
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| 作者姓名： | 山义昌 徐太安 鲁丹 郑学山 杜恒欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 山东省潍坊市气象局
2. 潍坊市人民医院,潍坊,261011 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京区域气象中心课题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了1998和2001年冬季我国北方地区流感大流行期的大气环境特征，得出冬季气温偏高，冷空气活动次数偏少且降温幅度增大；降水比上一年明显偏少且年际变化大、时间分布不均以及大气中烟尘含量高等大气环境特征与流感流行有密切关系。用1991～2001年的流感住院人数，气温、降水和能见度为因子，建立流感发生的预报方程。
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| 关 键 词： | 流感 大气环流特征 分级预报 预报方程 |
Analysis of Atmospheric Environment Change During Flu Rage and Flu Occurrence Forecast |
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| Shan Yichang,Xu Taian,Lu Dan,Zheng Xueshan,Du Hengxin.Analysis of Atmospheric Environment Change During Flu Rage and Flu Occurrence Forecast[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(6):389-392396. |
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| Authors: | Shan Yichang Xu Taian Lu Dan Zheng Xueshan Du Hengxin |
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| Institution: | Shan Yichang 1 Xu Taian 1 Lu Dan 1 Zheng Xueshan 1 Du Hengxin 2 |
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| Abstract: | Analyses is made of the atmospheric environment variation during the flu rages in 1998 and 2000. The results indicate that such atmospheric environment variation as higher winter air temperature, fewer cold air activities, larger argument of temperature variation, fewer precipitation than previous year along with greater inter annual variation and uneven temporal distribution, and higher atmospheric soot content are related closely to flu occurrence. At the same time, using the 11 year diseases case history information and the multiple regression method, selecting three factors with distinct physical meaning, a prediction equation of flu is established. |
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| Keywords: | flu environmental characteristic grading forecast |
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