| 华南地区干旱气候预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓娟,曾沁,梁健,纪忠萍,谢定升.华南地区干旱气候预测研究[J].气象科技,2007,35(1):26-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓娟 曾沁 梁健 纪忠萍 谢定升 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台,广州,510080 |
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| 摘 要： | 选用华南地区15个站近50年的年(季、月)降水资料,对华南地区干旱年景进行分析,并做气候预测。采用极差法计算各站点年雨量的临界值,评定严重干旱年和一般干旱年。分析发现,华南地区年雨量变化有明显的阶段性,1961~2003年间,平均4.3年有一个干旱年,14.3年有一个严重干旱年。介绍了几种实际预报中用到的旱涝预测方法:指数曲线方程预报方法、时间序列多周期特征值叠加预报法、综合气候预测方法、最优遥相关分析预报方法。对华南地区未来10年总的旱涝趋势的预测结论是:2005年雨量偏多,2006~2008年偏旱为主,2009~2012年是多雨期。
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| 关 键 词： | 华南 干旱 预测方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/9/2005 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年6月9日 |
Climatic Forecasting of Droughts in South China |
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| Li Xiaojuan,Zeng Qin,Liang Jian,Ji Zhongping and Xie Dingsheng.Climatic Forecasting of Droughts in South China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2007,35(1):26-30. |
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| Authors: | Li Xiaojuan Zeng Qin Liang Jian Ji Zhongping and Xie Dingsheng |
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| Institution: | Guangzhou Central Meteorological Office, Guangzhou 510080;Guangzhou Central Meteorological Office, Guangzhou 510080;Guangzhou Central Meteorological Office, Guangzhou 510080;Guangzhou Central Meteorological Office, Guangzhou 510080;Guangzhou Central Meteorological Office, Guangzhou 510080 |
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| Abstract: | The characteristics of drought years are analyzed and the rainfall anomalies of the next 10 years are predicted on the basis of the rainfall data of 15 stations in South China from 1951(1961) to 2003.The critical annual-rainfall amount of each station is calculated by means of the range analysis method,and the assessment is made of severe and common drought years.The results show that the variation of annual rainfall in South China is highly periodic: common droughts occur once every 4.3 years and severe droughts every 14.3 years from 1961 to 2003.Some drought/flood forecasting methods are introduced,such as exponential function method,multi-period characteristic-value superposition method,non-linear integrated climate forecasting method,and optimal teleconnection analysis method.The ensemble prediction for the next 10 years in South China is: the rainfall will be more than the normal in 2005,less than the normal from 2006 to 2008,and more than the normal again from 2009 to 2012. |
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| Keywords: | South China drought prediction method |
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