| 1971—2020年呼伦贝尔市积雪气候特征和未来趋势预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 高绍鑫,常煜,孟庆娜,曲学斌.1971—2020年呼伦贝尔市积雪气候特征和未来趋势预估[J].新疆气象,2023,17(3):78-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高绍鑫 常煜 孟庆娜 曲学斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1971—2020年呼伦贝尔市16个国家气象站最长积雪日数和最大积雪深度资料，采用经验正交函数（EOF）分析、重标极差分析（R/S）和非周期循环分析，统计最长积雪日数和最大积雪深度时间序列的Hurst指数、分维数和非周期循环的平均循环长度，分析最长积雪日数和最大积雪深度变化趋势和记忆周期；同时采用MOD10A2积雪产品，研究2001—2018年呼伦贝尔市积雪覆盖率变化。结果表明：（1）近50年呼伦贝尔市最长积雪日数呈递减趋势，最大积雪深度呈递增趋势；（2）积雪深度>20、30cm的年平均积雪日数主要出现在1996—2014年，其中积雪深度>30cm年平均积雪日数>1d;(3)呼伦贝尔市积雪初日出现在10月中旬至11月上旬，积雪终日在4月结束，积雪初日出现最早时间和积雪终日结束最晚时间都在呼伦贝尔市的北部地区；（4）R/S分析和非周期循环研究表明，呼伦贝尔市最长积雪日数和最大积雪深度H指数分别为0.589 9和0.889，即最长积雪日数未来减少和最大积雪深度未来增多趋势持续，持续时间分别为8和12 a;(5)呼伦贝尔市年平均积雪覆盖率为98.87%，呈波动增加趋势，...
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| 关 键 词： | 最长积雪日数 最大积雪深度 积雪覆盖率 重标极差分析(R/S) 非周期循环分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/1/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/5/14 0:00:00 |
Change of Snow Cover and Future Trend Prediction from 1971 to 2020 in Hulun Buir City |
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| GAO Shaoxin,CHANG Yu,Meng Qing and Qu Xubin.Change of Snow Cover and Future Trend Prediction from 1971 to 2020 in Hulun Buir City[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2023,17(3):78-86. |
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| Authors: | GAO Shaoxin CHANG Yu Meng Qing and Qu Xubin |
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| Institution: | Hulun Buir Meterological Bureau,Hulun Buir;Inner Mongolia,China,Hulun Buir Meterological Bureau,Hulun Buir,Hulun Buir Meterological Bureau,Hulun Buir,Hulun Buir Meterological Bureau,Hulun Buir |
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| Abstract: | Longest snow cover days (LSCD) and maximum snow depth data (MSD) of 16 national stations were used to calculate the values of Hurst parameter H, fractal dimension and non-cycle average cycle length of longest snow cover days and maximum snow depth, as well as variation trends and memory cycles of snow cover, based on EOF, R/S analysis and non-periodic cycle analysis. The snow cover percentage and frequency were studied using MOD10A2 from 2001 to 2018. The results show that: (1) In recent 50 years, LSCD in Hulun Buir showed a decreasing trend, while MSD increasing. (2) The days when snow depth was greater than 20 cm and 30 cm mainly occurred from 1996 to 2014. The annual average snow cover days which snow depth was greater than 30cm exceeded 1 day. (3) Initial snow cover date in Hulun Buir mainly occurred in mid-October to early November, while final snow cover date in April. The earliest time of initial snow cover date and the latest time of final snow cover date were all in the northern area of Hulun Buir. (4) H index of LSCD and MSD in Hulun Buir city were 0.5899 and 0.889 respectively. That is to say, LSCD would decrease while MSD increase in the future. Their durations were 8 years and 12 years respectively. (5) The annual average of the snow cover percentage in Hulun Buir was 98.87% with a fluctuating increasing trend. The snow cover percentage increased from northwest to southwest and southeast. There had a significant increase in October and March of second year, while decrease in September, December and April of second year. |
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| Keywords: | longest snow cover days(LSCD) and maximum snow depth(MSD) snow cover percentage rescaled range analysis(R/S) and non-periodic cycle analysis |
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