| 登陆广东省热带气旋的奇异谱分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢炯光,纪忠萍.登陆广东省热带气旋的奇异谱分析[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(2):163-168. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢炯光 纪忠萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台,广东,广州,510080 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用奇异谱方法(SSA方法)分析登陆广东省的热带气旋的演变规律，发现年登陆的热带气旋数存在明显的8年、准3年的周期振荡；登陆珠江口以西的热带气旋数存在12年、准2年的周期振荡。把产生热带气旋的源地——西北太平洋划分为8个海区，对每个海区的海表温度进行奇异谱分析，结果显示NIN0西区和暖池海区分别存在8年和3年的准周期振荡及12年和2年的周期振荡，这很可能是登陆广东的热带气旋产生的物理原因。最后结合最大炳谱方法(SSA—MEM)做出登陆广东省的全年和登陆珠江口以西的热带气旋趋势预报，其效果较理想，在短期气候预测业务中有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 奇异谱分析 热带气旋 周期振荡 登陆 广东 演变规律 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4965(2003)02-0163-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001/8/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年8月21日 |
THE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDING IN GUANGDONG |
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| XIE Jiong-guang and JI Zhong-ping.THE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDING IN GUANGDONG[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2003,19(2):163-168. |
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| Authors: | XIE Jiong-guang and JI Zhong-ping |
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| Institution: | Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China;Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA),the evolution regularity of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong are analysed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years,and in the west of Pearl River's mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years in the west of Pearl River's mouth. The north-west Pacific that generate topical cyclones are cut into 8 areas,and the Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in each area are analysed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years,and the Warm-pool are 12 and 2 years,respectively. This may be the physical reason that generates tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method(MEM) with SSA(SSA-MEM),the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the mouth of Pearl River are forcasted,and the result are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forcast. |
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| Keywords: | SSA tropical cyclone periodic oscillation |
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