| 辽宁省近50年降水序列变化规律及干旱预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙凤华,袁健.辽宁省近50年降水序列变化规律及干旱预测[J].气象,2004,30(6):32-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙凤华 袁健 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳,110016 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部公益类专项“气候变暖对东北极端气候事件影响”项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用沈阳、大连、丹东、营口、朝阳5个代表站1953～2001年的年降水量资料，建立了辽宁降水序列，分析了其近50年的变化规律，年降水量具有明显减少趋势。以此序列为基础重建干旱发生的灾变序列，采用灰色系统GM(1，1)模型探讨了旱灾预测问题。应用1996～2001年资料对预测结果进行了检验，效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水序列 降水量 干旱 天气预报 |
Study on Drought Forecast in Liaoning Province |
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| Sun Fenghua,Yuan Jian.Study on Drought Forecast in Liaoning Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2004,30(6):32-35. |
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| Authors: | Sun Fenghua Yuan Jian |
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| Abstract: | Based on the annual precipitation data of five meteorological observation stations (Shenyang, Dalian, Dandong, Yingkou, Chaoyang) in Liaoning Province from 1953 to 2001, precipitation set is set up, the precipitation variation is analyzed. Annual precipitation showed an obvious reducing trend. According to the set, a drought catastrophe set is rebuilt. With the grey system model GM(1,1), the drought forecast problem in the five areas is discussed. The test show that the forecast effect is prefer with the data from 1996 to 2001. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation grey system model forecast drought |
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