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| 江西暴雨期间T639模式的短期预报效果检验 | |
| 引用本文： | 郑婧,丁治英,刘波,吴静.江西暴雨期间T639模式的短期预报效果检验[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(1):40-47. |
| 作者姓名： | 郑婧 丁治英 刘波 吴静 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学,大气科学学院,江苏,南京,210044;江西省气象台,江西,南昌,330046 2. 南京信息工程大学,大气科学学院,江苏,南京,210044 3. 江西省气象台,江西,南昌,330046 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局华中区域气象中心科技发展基金项目(编号:QY-Z-201002) |
| 摘 要： | 选取2010年江西汛期(4-6月)11次暴雨天气过程,对T639模式的短期预报效果进行检验.结果表明,T639模式能准确反映亚洲中、高纬度大尺度环流的演变趋势和调整,对蕈大天气过程有较强的预报能力.模式对副高脊线位置预报误差较小.对副高强度和西脊点位置的预报随着季节转变存在系统性误差,4-5月预报的副高强度较实况明显偏... |
| 关 键 词： | T639模式 天气学检验 暴雨 误差 |
THE SYNOPTIC VERIFICATION OF SHORT-RANGE FORECAST FROM T639 MODEL DURING HEAVY RAINFALLS OF JIANGXI |
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| Zheng Jing,Ding Zhiying,Liu Bo,Wu Jing.THE SYNOPTIC VERIFICATION OF SHORT-RANGE FORECAST FROM T639 MODEL DURING HEAVY RAINFALLS OF JIANGXI[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2011,34(1):40-47. | |
| Authors: | Zheng Jing Ding Zhiying Liu Bo Wu Jing |
| Institution: | Zheng Jing1,2,Ding Zhiying1,Liu Bo2,Wu Jing2 1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China 2.Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory,Nanchang 330046,China |
| Abstract: | To better use the products of numeric model,the synoptic verification of short-range forecast from model T639 during heavy rainfalls of Jiangxi in 2010 is made.The results show that the model has good performances in predicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment of Eurasian middle and high latitude areas.Error is little in predicting the baseline of subtropical high.There are some systematic errors on forcasting the west ridge point and intensity of subtropical high.T639 performs well in i... |
| Keywords: | T639 model Synoptic verification Torrential rain Error |
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