| 气候模式FIO-ESM对2015/16年厄尔尼诺的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋振亚,舒启,鲍颖,尹训强,乔方利.气候模式FIO-ESM对2015/16年厄尔尼诺的预测[J].海洋学报(英文版),2015,34(12):67-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋振亚 舒启 鲍颖 尹训强 乔方利 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061, 中国;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237, 中国,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061, 中国;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237, 中国,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061, 中国;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237, 中国,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061, 中国;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237, 中国,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061, 中国;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237, 中国 |
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| 基金项目： | The National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1406404; the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract Nos 201105019 and 201505013. |
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| 摘 要： | Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Ni?o condition. However,it's not clear whether this El Ni?o event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter(EAKF)assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model(FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Ni?o by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Ni?o will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0°C and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34°C, which indicates 2015/16 El Ni?o event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Ni?o event(2.40°C) calculated relative a climatology based on the years1992–2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Ni?o event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring(FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Ni?a in summer 2016.
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| 关 键 词： | 厄尔尼诺 预测 FIO-ESM 集合调整卡尔曼滤波同化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/11/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/11/30 0:00:00 |
The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM |
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| SONG Zheny,SHU Qi,BAO Ying,YIN Xunqiang and QIAO Fangli.The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,34(12):67-71. |
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| Authors: | SONG Zheny SHU Qi BAO Ying YIN Xunqiang and QIAO Fangli |
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| Institution: | First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China |
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| Abstract: | Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Niño condition. However, it's not clear whether this El Niño event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter (EAKF) assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Niño by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Niño will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0℃ and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34℃, which indicates 2015/16 El Niño event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Niño event (2.40℃) calculated relative a climatology based on the years 1992-2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Niño event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring (FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Niña in summer 2016. |
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| Keywords: | El Niñ o prediction FIO-ESM Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation |
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