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1.
The EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) model is a method of forecasting earthquakes based on the notion that the precursory scale increase () phenomenon occurs at all scales in the seismogenic process. The rate density of future earthquake occurrence is computed directly from past earthquakes in the catalogue. The EEPAS model has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue and successfully tested on the California catalogue.Here we describe a further test of the EEPAS model in the Japan region spanning 1965–2001, initially on earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding the threshold value 6.75. A baseline model and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value were fitted to the JMA catalogue over the learning period 1926–1964. The performance of EEPAS, with the key parameters unchanged from the New Zealand values, was compared with that of the baseline model over the testing period, using a likelihood ratio criterion. The EEPAS model proved superior. A sensitivity analysis shows that this result is not sensitive to the choice of the learning period or b-value, but that the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model diminishes as the magnitude threshold is lowered. When key model parameters are optimised for the Japan catalogue, the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model is consistent for all magnitudes above 6.25, although less than in the New Zealand and California regions.These results add strength to the proposition that the EEPAS model is effective at a variety of scales and in a variety of seismically active regions. 相似文献
2.
David A. Rhoades 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(6-7):629-644
In 1976 Frank Evison identified the first examples of earthquake swarms as long-term precursors of main-shock events, and thereby discovered the predictive scaling relations of long-term seismogenesis. From this time on, forecasting became the main focus of his research. After learning from an early attempt to communicate forecasts confidentially to government, he recognised the importance of hypothesis testing, and the precursory swarm hypothesis was cast in a form similar to a regional likelihood model. Tests of its performance relative to a stationary Poisson model at M ≥ 5.8 in New Zealand were begun in 1977. The initial hypothesis was that of a 1–1 relation between swarms and main-shock events. Following a study of the Japan catalogue, the generalised swarm hypothesis, in which multiple swarms were precursory to multiple main-shock events, was formulated. Tests of this form of the hypothesis at M ≥ 6.8 were initiated in a region of surveillance east of Japan in 1983. Eventually the generalised hypothesis was adopted in New Zealand also. In 1999, tests were begun in a region of Greece. In 1994–1995, several main-shock events favourable to the swarm hypothesis occurred, however four main-shock events near Arthur’s Pass, New Zealand, occurred without precursory swarms. Subsequent analysis showed that events called “quarms”, which were similar to swarms but more protracted in time, had preceded these events. This led to the proposal of a qualitative physical process to account for swarms, quarms and the predictive relations: A three-stage faulting process, in which a major crack induces aftercracks in its neighbourhood, just as a main shock induces aftershocks. An inference from this process was that the most general long-term precursor should be an increase of seismicity at similar magnitudes to the eventual aftershocks. It turned out that such a precursory scale increase nearly always occurs before major earthquakes and conforms to the predictive scaling relations. Setting aside the problem of identifying the scale increase before the major earthquake, the EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) forecasting model was formulated. The success of this relatively weak model in forecasting major events in New Zealand, California, Japan and Greece shows that the predictive scaling relations are ubiquitous in earthquake catalogues. Although none of the formal tests of the swarm hypothesis were successful in their own terms, they were beneficial in identifying shortcomings in its formulation, thereby leading to improved understanding of long-term seismogenesis and a better forecasting model. Some puzzling aspects of the scaling relations are whether they vary regionally, and why the precursor area and aftershock area scale differently with magnitude. A more practical question is whether the EEPAS model can be strengthened, by making use of the clustering of some precursors in swarms and quarms, to bring us nearer to the original goal of forecasting individual major earthquakes. 相似文献
3.
Paricutin volcano is a monogenetic volcano whose birth and growth were observed by modern volcanological techniques. At the time of its birth in 1943, the seismic activity in central Mexico was mainly recorded by the Wiechert seismographs at the Tacubaya seismic station in Mexico City about 320 km east of the volcano area. In this paper we aim to find any characteristics of precursory earthquakes of the monogenetic eruption. Though there are limits in the available information, such as imprecise location of hypocenters and lack of earthquake data with magnitudes under 3.0.The available data show that the first precursory earthquake occurred on January 7, 1943, with a magnitude of 4.4. Subsequently, 21 earthquakes ranging from 3.2 to 4.5 in magnitude occurred before the outbreak of the eruption on February 20. The (S - P) durations of the precursory earthquakes do not show any systematic changes within the observational errors. The hypocenters were rather shallow and did not migrate.The precursory earthquakes had a characteristic tectonic signature, which was retained through the whole period of activity. However, the spectra of the P-waves of the Paricutin earthquakes show minor differences from those of tectonic earthquakes. This fact helped in the identification of Paricutin earthquakes. Except for the first shock, the maximum earthquake magnitudes show an increasing tendency with time towards the outbreak. The total seismic energy released by the precursory earthquakes amounted to 2 × 1019 ergs. Considering that statistically there is a threshold of cumulative seismic energy release (1017–18ergs) by precursory earthquakes in polygenetic volcanoes erupting after long quiescence, the above cumulative energy is exceptionally large. This suggests that a monogenetic volcano may need much more energy to clear the way of magma passage to the earth surface than a polygenetic one.The magma ascent before the outbreak of Paricutin volcano is interpretable by a model of magma-filled crack formation proposed by Weertman, based on seismic data and other field observations. 相似文献
4.
James R. Holliday Donald L. Turcotte John B. Rundle 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(6):1003-1024
There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff. 相似文献
5.
6.
地震临界区域尺度的界定对于地震前兆研究有着重要意义。通过加卸载响应比(LURR)及震前矩张量加速释放(AMR)两种模型对地震临界区域尺度进行了分析。采用不同半径区域内地震事件的Benioff应变分别计算LURR和AMR时间序列,震前引起时间序列异常变化最明显的半径尺度所定义的区域就是最佳地震临界区域。华北地区M>5震例研究结果显示两种模型所得到的最佳地震临界区域具有明显的一致性,最佳临界区域半径与主震震级之间统计的线性关系斜率约为0.34～0.36。研究结果表明通过不同预测模型可以较为定量的评价地震临界区域尺度,从而为地震预测研究提供依据。 相似文献
7.
2008年汶川8.0级地震已经过去10年, 在此期间关于地震预测相关的基础研究和实践工作从未停止, 本文作者从地震预测业务人员角度, 分析了2008年汶川8.0级地震相关的地震地质、 大地测量、 地震学、 前兆观测异常等方面的现象。 针对不同研究方向, 从震情跟踪角度提出了预测意义的讨论、 可能问题的分析、 不成熟的一些建议, 并就综合预测给出了一些粗浅的思考和认识, 期望对地震预测预报工作起到抛砖引玉的作用。 相似文献
8.
地震大小的度量 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文首先对地震大小度量的研究历程作了简要回顾。在此基础上着重指出以下几点: ① 近几十年广泛使用的ML、mb(mB)、MS震级标度,作为对地震大小的度量,不仅都存在着“以偏概全”和“震级饱和”的问题,而且由于未充分顾及地震波衰减的区域差异,尤其台站场地对地震动放大作用的差异,因此都只是对地震大小的不精确的度量。 ② 地震矩M0不仅物理含义明确,而且克服了ML、mb(mB)、MS震级标度所存在的各种问题,是最适合科学度量地震大小的物理量。为了继续延用“震级”这一术语,Kanamori定义了矩震级标度MW,虽然其假定的前提条件仍有待研究,但也是对地震相对大小的较合理的度量。 ③ 为更加科学地度量地震的大小,必须充分利用现代区域数字地震台网产出的大量波形数据,加强地震波衰减特征、场地效应和震源参数测定及有关定标关系的研究,在完善ML、mb(mB)、MS震级测定方法的基础上,重点改进、完善MW标度,逐渐推进以MW作为统一度量地震相对大小的物理量,为地震科学研究和地震预测研究奠定更加坚实的基础。 相似文献
9.
The earthquake magnitude was introduced into seismology nearly 40 yr ago, as a purely empirical concept. After an unparalleled success in scientific and practical applications the magnitude is developing into a concept with a clearer physical meaning and a more solid theoretical foundation. The magnitude determined from the maximum particle amplitude or velocity reflects the maximum radiation power of the seismic source in the frequency band recorded on a particular seismograph. Recently developed models for seismic sources assist in classifying earthquakes according to size and spectral character. From corresponding scaling laws the relations between various magnitude scales can be established. The magnitude aims at enabling one to compare the sizes of seismic sources ranging in character from nearly aseismic events to explosions. While the former are characterized by a relatively long-peroidic radiation maximum, the latter radiate primarily short-periodic seismic energy. Tectonic earthquakes are likely to range in character between the two extreme spectral cases. A comparison of earthquake magnitude with stellar magnitude leads to analogies in spectral character between earthquakes and stars, whereby seismic sources seem to follow a distribution similar to the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram for stars. Before seismological practice can catch up with the new cognitions, improvements in the definition of the earthquake magnitude are in need. 相似文献
10.
Introduction Yunnan is a very active region of earthquake in China. Since Yunnan Regional Seismological Network established in 1965, 37 years have past and thousands of seismic events have been recorded. Among them, 9 are great earthquakes of M7.0, more than 150 are moderately strong earthquakes of M =5.0~6.9 and about 6 000 are earthquakes of M3.0. Figure 1 shows the epicenter distribution of M3.5 earthquakes occurred in 1965~2002 in Yunnan region and Figure 2 the magnitude-frequency dis… 相似文献
11.
通过对三个震例的分析,笔者得到了周至台地电阻率观测在地震发生前出现的一些异常变化。其具体表现为:1在汶川地震发生前,周至台地电阻率观测在三个测向的日均值都呈缓慢下降,幅度为1.0%—3.9%,从异常变化出现至发震的时间间隔为1月左右。2在芦山地震和岷县漳县地震发生前,从2011年9月开始,周至台地电阻率观测在三个测向的日均值都呈显著下降且幅度较大。其中,芦山地震发生在异常变化恢复(上升)的过程中,从出现异常到发震的间隔为16个月;而岷县漳县地震也发生在异常恢复(上升)的过程中,但从异常出现到发震的间隔为19个月。表明周至台地电阻率观测能较好地反映出地震的前兆信息,具有一定的映震能力,这对陕西及相邻地区的地震监测和预报可以起到一定的作用。 相似文献
12.
对震群活动特征的深入研究可以为区域地震危险性分析和地震活动趋势判断提供有效的依据,但受台网布局和震群位置的影响,地震目录中往往会遗漏一些地震,而地震目录的完整性将会影响震群活动特征分析的可靠性.因此,本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对山东乳山震群2014年5月至2015年6月期间固定台站和流动台阵记录的连续波形进行... 相似文献
13.
青藏高原北部地区弱震空间图像特征与中短期地震预测方法 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
通过对青藏高原北部地区31次地震的研究,确定了震前地震活动图像的中短期预测指标以及中期向短期过渡的异常判据及预测方法。研究结果表明,中强地震前普遍存在地震空区、弱震条带、前兆地震或震群、地震活动增强和平静等异常图像,所表现出的异常时间存在很大的差异。具有中短期特征的弱震空区(段)和条带一般出现在震前1～3a,平均持续时间1a,在空区解体后1～6个月发生地震。大多数前兆地震或震群活动属于短临异常,一般出现在震前几天至6个月,震级差为1．0～2．3,距离震中5～60km,空间上主要集中在祁连山地震带。地震活动增强以应力集中为主,属于短期异常特征。异常图像在时间上表现为中期阶段以孕震空区、弱震条带、地震活动增强和平静等异常,异常比较显著且不同步;短临阶段出现前兆地震和地震空区停止活动而形成的临震前的相对平静。异常图像在空间上具有较明显的分区性,与区域活动构造有一定的关系。 相似文献
14.
A space-time envelope of minor seismicity related to major shallow earthquakes is identified from observations of the long-term Precursory Scale Increase () phenomenon, which quantifies the three-stage faulting model of seismogenesis. The envelope, which includes the source area of the major earthquake, is here demarcated for 47 earthquakes from four regions, with tectonic regimes ranging from subduction to continental collision and continental transform. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 5.8 to 8.2, and include the 24 most recent mainshocks of magnitude 6.4 and larger in the San Andreas system of California, the Hellenic Arc region of Greece, and the New Zealand region, together with the six most recent mainshocks of magnitude 7.4 and larger in the Pacific Arc region of Japan. Also included are the destructive earthquakes that occurred at Kobe, Japan (1995, magnitude 7.2), Izmit, Turkey (1999, magnitude 7.4), and W.Tottori, Japan (2000, magnitude 7.3). The space (A
P
) in the space-time envelope is optimised with respect to the scale increase, while the time (T
P
) is the interval between the onset of the scale increase and the occurrence of the earthquake. A strong correlation is found between the envelope A
P
T
P
and the magnitude of the earthquake; hence the conclusion that the set of precursory earthquakes contained in the envelope is intrinsic to the seismogenic process. Yet A
P
and T
P
are correlated only weakly with each other, suggesting that A
P
is affected by differences in statical conditions, such as geological structure and lithology, and T
P
by differences in dynamical conditions, such as plate velocity. Among other scaling relations, predictive regressions are found between, on the one hand, the magnitude level of the precursory seismicity, and on the other hand, both T
P
and the major earthquake magnitude. Hence the method, as here applied to retrospective analysis, is potentially adaptable to long-range forecasting of the place, time and magnitude of major earthquakes. 相似文献
15.
以华北地区1980——2010年资料为例,以单位边长的网格覆盖研究区,考察中小地震空间分布非空网格数的变化．网格尺度足够小则非空网格数趋于该时段的地震数,网格尺度足够大则非空网格数为1．实际资料显示,当空间网格尺寸大于0.5deg;之后,对结果稳定性的影响逐渐减弱．中小地震空间分布非空网格数的变化与ldquo;背景rdquo;地震活动的空间扩展（增强）或收缩（平静）有关．不同网格尺寸条件下的非空网格数有基本一致的变化趋势,可能间接反映了区域应力的短时扰动或起伏．小地震有更高的丛集特性,随着震级下限的提高,不同网格尺寸非空网格数之间差异逐渐变小．华北地区小震活动非空网格数的频次分布符合统计正态分布,因而给定置信概率、依据正态分布密度函数可计算非空网格数的ldquo;正常rdquo;分布范围,超出此范围的数据可视为异常．统计显示,就华北地区而言,中小地震非空网格数ldquo;平静rdquo;型异常的预测效率最低,ldquo;增强rdquo;型异常具有最高的报警对应率,而同时考虑ldquo;增强rdquo;及ldquo;平静rdquo;的异常判据则具有最高的预报评分．这也意味着,华北中强地震前以ldquo;增强rdquo;型的中小地震活动异常为主．研究结果还显示,小地震时空活动格局的改变与后续中强地震似乎具有更强的统计关联特性． 相似文献
16.
强震远场前兆异常在地震预报中的应用 总被引：9，自引：4，他引：9
强震不仅有近场前兆异常，而且也有远场前兆异常，后者在地震预报中可以起到三个方面的作用：（１）远场前兆异常多在震前的短临阶段准同步地出现，为短临预报提供了较丰富的信息，有助于作出短临预报；（２）远场前兆异常一般具有双重或多重前兆的性质，它们是比较可靠的前兆异常，可为预报地震提供依据；（３）远场前兆异常显示明显的地区，是应力积累较高的地区，往往是后继地震发生地方，即指出了地震可能发生的地域。因此，对远 相似文献
17.
建立了Synthesis法前兆群体异常信息提取的数学模型。选取滇东地区1995－2000年9月间常用的20项前兆资料，研究中强地震前后Synthesis法前兆群体异常的变化特征。研究结果表明，在研究时段内，Synthesis法前兆群体异常占时率为0.158，为小概率事件。地震对应率为5／6＝0．83，虚报率为1／6＝0．17，地震均是在异常结束后3个月之内发生，是对应概率很高的短期预报指标。成组异常出现均有成组地震对应，群体前兆“组异常”特征显著。处于计算前兆观测点中心的澄江地震前，异常幅度突出，预示了Synthesis值计算有利于提取近源短期异常。实际检验了Synthesis法在地震短期预报中的预报意义，获得了满意的效果。 相似文献
18.
作者提出中国地震预报发展规划在指导思想上应突出探索性和实验性,探索内容应包括：地壳运动状态(方向、速率、范围及机理);地壳应力集中点(应力集中点数量、各点应力积累速度、范围、持续时间及其与震级的相关关系,应力集中点的演化与区内地震活动、前兆异常的相关关系);震源应力演化产生的应力扰动所能影响的范围及其量级;前兆观测仪器和预报判据等。探索的技术路线作者提出：短临预报要抓大放小,主要抓7级左右大震的监测预报,对5～6级地震采取抗震技术措施进行预防;对地壳运动状态及应力集中点的研究采取GPS大地形变、绝对应力测量等方法进行长时间短周期的综合观测。抓住预报实验区、重点危险区及余震区等现场不放,进行以上述内容为主的实验观测。 相似文献
19.
We examined forecasting quiescence and activation models to obtain the conditional probability that a large earthquake will occur in a specific time period on different scales in Taiwan. The basic idea of the quiescence and activation models is to use earthquakes that have magnitudes larger than the completeness magnitude to compute the expected properties of large earthquakes. We calculated the probability time series for the whole Taiwan region and for three subareas of Taiwan—the western, eastern, and northeastern Taiwan regions—using 40 years of data from the Central Weather Bureau catalog. In the probability time series for the eastern and northeastern Taiwan regions, a high probability value is usually yielded in cluster events such as events with foreshocks and events that all occur in a short time period. In addition to the time series, we produced probability maps by calculating the conditional probability for every grid point at the time just before a large earthquake. The probability maps show that high probability values are yielded around the epicenter before a large earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the probability maps demonstrate that the probability maps are not random forecasts, but also suggest that lowering the magnitude of a forecasted large earthquake may not improve the forecast method itself. From both the probability time series and probability maps, it can be observed that the probability obtained from the quiescence model increases before a large earthquake and the probability obtained from the activation model increases as the large earthquakes occur. The results lead us to conclude that the quiescence model has better forecast potential than the activation model. 相似文献