共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
非汛期影响海南热带气旋的活动变化特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
根据1949～2002年共54年的台风资料对非汛期(10月～次年4月)西北太平洋台风活动的气候特点进行了统计分析,指出:非汛期内影响、严重影响海南的热带气旋频次均无明显的减少趋势,其频次存在准10年、15～20年的主周期,其年代际变化表现为1950年代中期～1960年代后期偏少,1970年代前期偏多,1970年代后期偏少,1980年代偏多,1990年代偏少;非汛期内严重影响海南的较强的热带气旋主要出现在拉妮娜年且其年代际变化也存在15～20年的主周期,1950年代后期到1960年代前期活动的热带气旋偏弱,1960年代后期～1970年代前期偏强,1970年代后期偏弱,1980年代偏强,1990年代又偏弱;较强的热带气旋(中心极值940hPa以下)均生成于135°E以东的洋面,而其源地越西,其强度越小;非汛期登陆海南的热带气旋的登陆点均处于海南岛的东侧海岸线上,1970年代中期以后,登陆点有南移趋势,且均以台风形式登陆。 相似文献
2.
Variations in Typhoon Landfalls over China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Emily A. FOGARTY James B. ELSNER Thomas H. JAGGER Kam-biu LIU Kin-sheun LOUIE 《大气科学进展》2006,23(5):665-677
The interannual variability in typhoon landfalls over China is investigated using historical and modern records. For the purpose of substantiating and elaborating upon the claim of north to south variation in tropical cyclone activity over China, a north-to-south anti-correlation in yearly activity is confirmed in the historical cyclone records. When cyclone activity over the province of Guangdong is high （low）, it tends to be low （high） over the province of Fujian. A similar spatial variation is identified in the modern records using a factor analysis model, which delineates typhoon activity over the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan from the activity over the northern provinces of Fujian, Taiwan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. A landfall index of typhoon activity representing the degree to which each year follows this pattern of activity is used to identify correlated climate variables. A useful statistical regression model that includes sea-level pressure differences between Mongolia and western China and sea-surface temperature （SST） over the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the summer explains 26% of the interannual variability of the landfall index. It is suggested that a stronger than normal north-south pressure gradient increases the surface easterly wind flow over northern China： this, coupled with lower SST over the Pacific, favors typhoons taking a more westerly track toward southern China. 相似文献
3.
西北太平洋强热带气旋活动的年代际变化 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：12
统计分析了１９５１～１９９５年西北太平洋强热带气旋①活动的气候特征和大气环流特征及其相互关系。结果表明,５０和６０年代是强热带气旋活动异常期,６０和７０年代是台风活动异常期。并指出台风与副热带高压、西风环流、青藏高原指数有很好的相关性 相似文献
4.
5.
Distribution Characteristics of the Intensity and Extreme Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Influencing China 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 To address the deficiency of climatological research on tropical cyclones(TCs) influencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with different intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for1949–2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50- and 100-yr return-period TCs with different intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with different intensities exert distinctive effects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these different regions also differ. Super and severe typhoons mainly influence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities influence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity(PMTI) with 50- and 100-yr return periods influencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa,and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over different regions of China. 相似文献
6.
登陆中国大陆、海南和台湾的热带气旋及其相互关系 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
首先,针对登陆中国热带气旋的登陆地点资料仅为地名的现状,利用1951-2004年西北太平洋热带气旋资料和登陆中国热带气旋资料,研究制定了登陆资料信息化方案.该方案包括海岸线近似、登陆位置计算、其他特征量计算和误差订正4个方面.对资料信息化结果的分析表明:信息化登陆资料效果是良好的.在此基础上,对登陆中国热带气旋的基本气候特征进行研究,重点分析了在大陆、海南和台湾登陆的3类热带气旋以及它们的相互关系.结果表明:登陆热带气旋频繁的地区为台湾东部沿海、福建至雷州半岛沿海和海南东部沿海;台湾东部沿海和浙江沿海部分地区是登陆热带气旋平均强度最大的地区,平均登陆强度达到台风级别,其中台湾南端的平均登陆强度为最强,达到强台风级别;5-11月为热带气旋登陆中国季节,集中期为7-9月,8月最多;登陆热带气旋的强度主要集中在热带低压-台风,尤其以强热带风暴和台风最多.对于全部大陆、海南和台湾三地,50多年来登陆热带气旋频数都存在不同程度的减少趋势,但只有登陆海南热带气旋的减少趋势是显著的;而所有登陆风暴(含以上强度)频数均无明显增多或减少趋势.总体而言,登陆大陆的TC最多、初旋最早、终旋最晚、登陆期最长;登陆海南的TC居中;而登陆台湾的TC最少、初旋最晚、终旋最早、登陆期最短.从登陆方式看,登陆一地的TC最多、登陆两地的TC次之,分别占总数的79.2%和20.6%,仅有1个TC登陆三地.在登陆两地的TC中,经台湾登陆大陆的TC频数最多、强度减弱最快,经海南登陆大陆的TC频数次之、强度减弱较慢,经大陆登陆海南的TC频数排行第3、强度减弱较快. 相似文献
7.
浙江省热带气旋倒槽暴雨气候特征研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
基于近40年热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone,简称TC）日降水和最佳路径等观测资料,采用数理统计、天气学分析等方法对浙江省TC倒槽暴雨分布特征及其与TC的相互关系进行研究。（1）浙江省年均会发生1.8次TC倒槽暴雨,占TC暴雨总数约4成,是浙江省台风暴雨中的一种重要形式。每年8—9月是TC倒槽暴雨高发期,暴雨主要发生在宁波南部至温州一带沿海地区,暴雨中心多位于台州和温州沿海。（2）引发浙江省TC倒槽暴雨的热带气旋多在粤东至浙南登陆之后北上转向或西北行,登陆当天最易发生暴雨且雨强最强。暴雨发生时,福建中部沿海经海峡至台湾东北部一带是TC高频活动区。（3）距TC中心2.5~5.0纬距之间和TC东北偏北象限是倒槽暴雨中心的高频落区;较强暴雨发生在TC强度为热带低压时,且强中心易位于TC东北偏东象限,极端强降水发生主要与热带低压和副高等相互作用形成的偏东暖湿急流、TC倒槽强辐合和TC东北偏东象限中尺度深对流系统频繁活动有关。 相似文献
8.
We used tropical cyclone (TC) best track data for 1949–2016, provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration (CMA-STI), and a TC size dataset (1980-2016) derived from geostationary satellite infrared images to analyze the statistical characteristics of autumn TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP). We investigated TC genesis frequency, location, track density, intensity, outer size, and landfalling features, as well as their temporal and spatial evolution characteristics. On average, the number of autumn TCs accounted for 42.1% of the annual total, slightly less than that of summer TCs (42.7%). However, TCs classified as strong typhoons or super typhoons were more frequent in autumn than in summer. In most years of the 68-yr study period, there was an inverse relationship between the number of autumn TCs and that of summer TCs. The genesis of autumn TCs was concentrated at three centers over the WNP: the first is located near (14°N, 115°E) over the northeastern South China Sea and the other two are located in the vast oceanic area east of the Philippines around (14°N, 135°E) and (14°N, 145°E), respectively. In terms of intensity, the eight strongest TCs during the study period all occurred in autumn. It is revealed that autumn TCs were featured with strong typhoons and super typhoons, with the latter accounting for 28.1% of the total number of autumn TCs. Statistically, the average 34-knot radius (R34) of autumn TCs increased with TC intensity. From 1949 to 2016, 164 autumn TCs made landfall in China, with an average annual number of 2.4. Autumn TCs were most likely to make landfall in Guangdong Province, followed by Hainan Province and Taiwan Island.
相似文献9.
热带气旋是影响我国沿海的主要灾害性天气系统之一, 它产生的狂风、暴雨、巨浪和风暴潮, 给沿岸地区人民生命和国家财产安全带来严重威胁。而严重的台风灾害, 往往是台风登陆引起的。为进一步研究登陆热带气旋的活动规律, 总结了2005年登陆我国热带气旋的特点, 结果表明:2005年登陆我国热带气旋具有登陆季节短、登陆地点分布异常、台风比例异常偏高、灾害损失极为严重的特点。同时, 还讨论了2005年登陆我国热带气旋异常的气候原因, 并指出未来几年登陆热带气旋和台风的年频数处在上升趋势中。 相似文献
10.
台湾岛地形诱生次级环流系统对热带气旋异常运动的影响机制 总被引：19，自引：4，他引：15
对经过中国台湾岛和海南岛、吕宋岛、日本诸岛以及朝鲜半岛的热带气旋在过岛前后的运动、结构和强度的时空变化进行了统计诊断分析。研究结果表明,台湾岛附近热带气旋运动左偏（定义为偏于以前路径的左侧）机率最大,且台湾岛周围是产生诱生低压的高频区。采用理想东、西风环境场作为数值模拟背景场,数值研究了岛屿地形强迫与台湾附近的环境流场的相互作用及其对热带气旋运动偏转的影响,提出了岛屿地形强迫、背景场和热带气旋涡旋三者相互作用对热带气旋路径突然转折影响的观点,即台湾地形有利于环境场中诱生出一对偏差偶极涡,这对诱生偏差偶极涡将导致逼近岛屿的热带气旋产生运动方向的突然偏折,且在不同基本气流条件下,岛屿地形对热带气旋运动可能产生显著不同的影响。 相似文献
11.
Extra-tropical cyclonic/anticyclonic activity in North-Eastern Pacific and air temperature extremes in Western North America 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Synoptic extra-tropical cyclone and anticyclone trajectories have been constructed from mean daily sea level pressure (SLP) data using a new automated scheme. Frequency, intensity and trajectory characteristics of these transients have been summarized to form indices describing wintertime cyclonic and anticyclonic activity over the North-Eastern Pacific (east of 170°W) during 1950–2001. During this period, the strength of anticyclones gradually diminished and their frequency became more variable, while cyclones intensified in a discrete shift with deeper lows and further southerly trajectories occurring since the mid-1970s. These changes in synoptic transients translate into anomalously low seasonal mean SLP in the Aleutian Low, a low-level circulation anomaly consistent with the positive phase of the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the west coast of North America and negative in the central North Pacific Ocean. A link between cyclonic/anticyclonic activity and tropical SST anomalies also exists, but this link only becomes significant after the mid-1970s, a period that coincides with more southerly cyclone trajectories. Southward excursions of mid-latitude cyclones during El Niño/positive NPO winters accomplish the northward advection of tropical air and discourage the southward penetration of polar air masses associated with transient anticyclones. Naturally, these changes in cyclonic/anticyclonic activity directly impact surface air temperatures, especially at night. We document these profound impacts on observed wintertime minimum temperatures over Western North America. 相似文献
12.
1965-2010年7-9月影响中国的热带气旋降水变化趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用中国气象局逐日台站降水和上海台风研究所最佳台风路径等资料,对1965—2010年夏季(7—9月)影响中国热带气旋降水的变化趋势及影响机制进行了分析。热带气旋降水主要影响中国东部和南部,夏季平均的热带气旋降水由沿海向内陆,由东南向西北递减。自1965年以来,夏季影响中国的热带气旋降水呈现华东及东南沿海增多,华南沿海、海南岛以及西南地区减少的变化趋势。分析发现,一方面夏季西北太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,导致同期中国东部地区上空水汽辐合增强;另一方面热带气旋的引导气流发生变化,使夏季热带气旋盛行路径由南海向东亚沿岸偏移,这两个因子的共同作用致使影响中国的热带气旋降水发生变化。 相似文献
13.
中国台风降水的气候特征 总被引：17，自引：5，他引：12
对中国台风降水的时空分布特征进行研究,发现台风降水分布在中国中东部广大地区,台风降水量自东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少.台风降水最大值出现在台湾岛的中东部地区和海南岛的个别地区,年平均台风降水量大于700 mm,最小值出现在内蒙古、山西、陕西、四川的部分地区,年平均台风降水量不足10 mm.台风降水一般出现在4～12月,峰值出现在8月.1957～2004年期间台风降水呈下降趋势.台风降水的异常主要由于亚洲地区大气环流和赤道中东太平洋沃克环流的异常变化所引起.进一步分析发现,台风降水在中国大部分地区为减少趋势,且这种趋势在台湾岛、海南岛、东南沿海部分地区和东北南部较显著.台风暴雨是我国东南沿海及部分内陆地区的极端强降水事件之一,这些地区的暴雨和大暴雨很大程度上是台风带来的. 相似文献
14.
15.
基于1980—2014中国670站日最大风速资料,利用改进的客观天气图分析法（OSAT）分离出中国陆地的台风大风（6级以上,≥10.8 m/s）,并定义了台风极端大风,进而研究了台风大风和台风极端大风的变化特征。分析表明：在地理分布上,台风大风年均日数和占比均自海岸线向内陆迅速减小,在海南、华南和东南沿海省份以及江苏南部,台风大风占比一般为30%～70%;台风极端大风年均日数大值主要分布在沿海省市（除河北和天津）,特别是华东和华南沿海,局部地区台风极端大风日数占比达100%。从季节变化看,在台风活跃的7—9月,中国台风极端大风频次总体上超过了季风极端大风;就全国而言,当阈值从最低值（11.5 m/s）提升至12级（32.7 m/s）时,台风极端大风频数占比则从12%急剧攀升至77%。1980—2014年,中国台风大风和台风极端大风年日数均显著减少,而台风极端大风年平均强度增强;这期间引起中国台风大风和台风极端大风的台风频数均显著减少,但引起台风极端大风的台风在生命期和影响期的平均强度均显著增强,这可能是上述显著变化特征的主要原因。 相似文献
16.
我国热带气旋研究十年进展 总被引：207，自引：28，他引：179
90年代初,国内外开展了几次大规模的热带气旋现场试验,取得了许多宝贵的加 密观测资料。利用这些资料,对热带气旋尤其是异常热带气旋开展了一系列的研究。我国科学家在国家科技攻关85-906项目中的“台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学理论的研究”等与热带气旋有关的课题和国际热带气旋研究合作项目“SPECTRUM(SpecialExperimentConcerningTyphoonRecurvatureandUnusualMovement)”中对台风的突变现象和预报技术进行了重点研究。从而在过去10年中,在台风运动突变、结构和强度突变、台风暴雨的突然增幅、热带气旋路径预报方法研究等方面都取得了新的进展。作者将对这些进展作简要综述。 相似文献
17.
Russell L. Elsberry Mary S. Jordan Frederic Vitart 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(4):305-318
The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as for the 2008 season. Seventeen of the 23 tropical cyclones during the 2009 season occurred during multiple storm scenarios that are more difficult to predict, and many of the deficient track predictions involved unusual and rapidly changing tracks that typically involve interactions with adjacent synoptic circulations that are not predictable on intraseasonal timescales (10–30 days). Such incorrect predictions of the duration and tracks of these multiple cyclones were found to degrade the performance in predicting subsequent tropical cyclone formations and tracks during the 32-day integration. Predominantly northward tracks throughout the life cycle tended to be less predictable on intraseasonal timescales. Given these caveats, the overall performance of the ECMWF ensemble for the 12 typhoons was more successful than during the 2008 season. However, the performance for three tropical storms during the 2009 season was less successful due to the difficult track forecast scenarios. A surprisingly good performance was found in predicting the formation location and early track segments of eight minimal tropical storms or tropical depressions. The less satisfactory aspect for many of the late season tropical depressions was that the ECMWF ensemble continued to predict member vortices for extended periods after the system had actually dissipated. 相似文献
18.
Russell L. Elsberry Mary S. Jordan Frederic Vitart 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2010,46(2):135-153
The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10–30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides guidance of formation and tracks on 10–30 day timescales. 相似文献
19.
CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this
study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. Typhoon
precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The
maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan,
while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and
Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April
– December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations
are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations
from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and
southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general
circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
Typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of
central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons. 相似文献
20.
南海西南季风异常与广东省汛期重要天气的关系 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
南海西南季风的活动直接影响广东省前、后汛期重要天气的异常,因此深入探索南海西南季风的活动规律及其与广东省各种重大天气异常的关系十分必要.利用合成分析和相关统计方法,探讨和分析了南海西南季风建立早晚、强弱与广东省前、后汛期降水量趋势,初、终台的早晚及登陆广东省的热带气旋个数等重要天气的关系.指出南海西南季风爆发早的年份,前汛期雨量以正常偏少为主、后汛期雨量以偏多为主、登陆广东热带气旋偏多;南海西南季风偏强的年份,后汛期雨量以偏多为主,登陆广东热带气旋以正常偏多为主.还分析了4～6月、7～9月以及前冬(12～2月)的海温场、500 hPa高度场与西南季风建立早晚、强弱的关系,初步探索了西南季风建立的早晚、强弱与广东省汛期重要天气气候异常的关系的一些机理,其结果可供短期气候业务预测参考. 相似文献