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Daily rainfall and temperature data from 47 locations across Nigeria for the 36-year period 1979–2014 were treated to time series analysis technique to investigate some nonlinear trends in rainfall and temperature data. Some quantifiers such as Lyapunov exponents, correlation dimension, and entropy were obtained for the various locations. Positive Lyapunov exponents were obtained for the time series of mean daily rainfall for all locations in the southern part of Nigeria while negative Lyapunov exponents were obtained for all locations in the Northern part of Nigeria. The mean daily temperature had positive Lyapunov exponent values (0.35–1.6) for all the locations. Attempts were made in reconstructing the phase space of time series of rainfall and temperature. 相似文献
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The occurrence of flood and drought frequency is highly correlated with the temporal fluctuations of streamflow series; understanding of these fluctuations is essential for the improved modeling and statistical prediction of extreme changes in river basins. In this study, the complexity of daily streamflow fluctuations was investigated by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) in a large heterogeneous lake basin, the Poyang Lake basin in China, and the potential impacts of human activities were also explored. Major results indicate that the multifractality of streamflow fluctuations shows significant regional characteristics. In the study catchment, all the daily streamflow series present a strong long-range correlation with Hurst exponents bigger than 0.8. The q-order Hurst exponent h(q) of all the hydrostations can be characterized well by only two parameters: a (0.354 ≤ a ≤ 0.384) and b (0.627 ≤ b ≤ 0.677), with no pronounced differences. Singularity spectrum analysis pointed out that small fluctuations play a dominant role in all daily streamflow series. Our research also revealed that both the correlation properties and the broad probability density function (PDF) of hydrological series can be responsible for the multifractality of streamflow series that depends on watershed areas. In addition, we emphasized the relationship between watershed area and the estimated multifractal parameters, such as the Hurst exponent and fitted parameters a and b from the q-order Hurst exponent h(q). However, the relationship between the width of the singularity spectrum (Δα) and watershed area is not clear. Further investigation revealed that increasing forest coverage and reservoir storage can effectively enhance the persistence of daily streamflow, decrease the hydrological complexity of large fluctuations, and increase the small fluctuations. 相似文献
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《Atmospheric Research》2009,94(4):673-679
Since climate trends are getting considerable attention in recent years, we aimed in this study to compare trends and rhythms of complexity (fractal dimension, FD) of rainfall data series between two continents: Latin America and Europe. Two parallel nonlinear methods for calculating FD of a temporal data series, Higuchi's and consecutive differences, were combined with Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to obtain FD oscillations of monthly accumulated rainfall. The data were collected for the last thirty years in Pastaza province, Ecuador and Veneto province, Italy. In order to calculate their FD time dependence, FD(t), moving windows of different lengths (short, 10–20 and long 21–350 samples), were applied. Both methods, each combined with FFT, detected identical (or very similar) rhythms of detrended FD(t) in the two data series, but frequencies with dominant amplitudes differed (4.4 years in Ecuador, 10.3 years in Italy). Long-term FD(t) trends were also studied using optimized long window lengths (~ 200 samples). A linear positive trend was obtained for the Ecuadorian rainfall data over the whole recorded period. Italian fractal trend profile was, however, characterized by two periods: a constant high value for years 1974–1993, followed by a linear decrease for 1993–2005. Trend results, obtained with two different methods, were also similar. Accordance of the results, reported in the present paper by applying these two methods, validates their use as a tool in future fractal meteorological measurements. As well, these results indicate that positive FD trend obtained for Pastaza (Ecuador) and negative trend computed for Veneto (Italy) account for a local or regional phenomenon, most probably caused by extensive deforestation and land use change (Ecuador) and continental or global atmospheric pattern variability (Italy). 相似文献
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利用全国518个站1960—2011年逐日气温观测资料和160个站1983—2012年月尺度气温客观预测数据,基于非线性局部Lyapunov指数和非线性误差增长理论,研究中国区域月尺度气温可预报性期限对资料序列长度的依赖性。结果表明:气温可预报性期限对资料序列的长度有一定程度的依赖性,在西北、东北及华中地区尤为明显。平均而言,45年的资料序列长度才能够得到稳定合理的可预报性期限。为了验证气温可预报期限计算结果的可信度,将月尺度气温的可预报性期限与客观气候预测方法的预报评分技巧进行对比,发现两者结果非常一致。其中,由观测资料得到的1月气温的可预报性期限明显低于7月,1月客观气候预测方法的预报评分技巧也明显低于7月,且1月 (7月) 预报评分的空间分布型与1月 (7月) 气温可预报性期限的空间分布型较为一致。因此,利用非线性局部Lyapunov指数和台站逐日观测资料分析气温的可预报性期限结果是可信的。 相似文献
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Time series of vertically integrated concentrations (VIC) across neutrally buoyant plumes are used to study the fractal and multifractal characteristics of passive scalar fluctuations in turbulent flow fields. Here, the multifractal analysis is based on a novel definition of the singularity spectrum-F() of the time records. Approximations for quantities such as the fractal dimension and the spectral exponent are derived as functions ofF() and are compared with the experimental results. Among other things, we show that VIC records are characterized by two typical subdomains. One domain, which is related to integrated concentration fluctuations, is a subfractal process; whereas the second one, which is directly related to the concentration fluctuations, is a fractal process. 相似文献
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Liu Yonghe Zhang Wanchang Zhang Kexin Pei Hongqin 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):591-598
The multifractal behavior of daily rainfall was investigated for a watershed in Eastern China to better understand the temporal structure of rainfall under monsoonal climate. In this study, over periods of up to 46 years, daily rainfall recorded in 1962 to 2007 at 10 meteorological stations in the administrative area of Lin-Yi City in Shandong province were analyzed with focus on features of power spectra, standard statistical moments, and exceedance probability tails of these daily rainfall time series. Spectral analysis and study of the moments of the rainfall intensity showed that a scaling range from 1 day to 1 year is present. Empirical moment scaling functions of the rainfall intensity calculated for different moments of order suggested that the values of universal multifractal parameters α and C 1 for all stations were approximated to 0.7 and 0.37, respectively. Comparing with the parameters estimated in other literatures, our results showed higher values for α but lower values for C 1 in general, which suggested that the rainfall series in the study watershed influenced by the East-Asia monsoon climate have similarities to that in France, but are spikier and smoother than that in the semi-arid region in Portugal. The parameter H values were estimated as vary from ?0.18 to ?0.22, which is similar to the result obtained by Tessier et al. (J Geophys Res-Atmos 101:26427–26440, 1996). 相似文献
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Spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature extremes have been investigated in Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) region based on the daily series of temperature observations from 162 meteorological stations. A total of 11 indices were used to assess the changes of temperature pattern. Linear trend analyses revealed that the daily maximum temperature (TXx) increased at α = 0.05 level with a magnitude of 0.15 °C per decade on the regional scale during the period of 1961–2014. More pronounced warming trend of the daily minimum temperature (TNn) was detected at a rate of 0.49 °C per decade (α = 0.01 level). Consequently, a decreasing trend of the temperature range of TXx and TNn (extreme temperature range) was observed. The frequency of hot days (TXf90) and annual average of warm events (warm spell duration indicator, WSDI) showed significant increasing trends, while that of cold nights (TNf10) and cold events (cold spell duration indicator, CSDI) showed opposite behaviors. Both warm winter (W-W) and hot summer (H-S) series displayed significant increasing trends at α = 0.01 confidence level. The cold winter (C-W) series showed a decreasing trend at α = 0.01 confidence level, while the cool summer (C-S) series showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend that is not passing the 90% confidence level (α = 0.1). Abrupt increments of warmrelated extremes (TXx, TXf90, WSDI) have been detected since 1990s, and a steadily decreasing trend of cold related extremes (TNf10, CSDI) was found since 1970s. Ten hot summers out of 11 and nine warm winters out of 10 occurred after 1990s. Altitude has a large impact on spatial pattern of extreme temperature indices, and the urban heat island effect also has an impact on amplitude of variation in extreme temperature. Trend magnitudes are significantly larger at sites with high altitudes for warmrelated indices (TXx, TXf90, WSDI), while those involving cold-related indices (TNn, TNf10) are remarkably larger for stations with low altitudes. 相似文献
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Stéphane Vannitsem 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):1981-1998
The dynamics of a low-order coupled wind-driven ocean–atmosphere system is investigated with emphasis on its predictability properties. The low-order coupled deterministic system is composed of a baroclinic atmosphere for which 12 dominant dynamical modes are only retained (Charney and Straus in J Atmos Sci 37:1157–1176, 1980) and a wind-driven, quasi-geostrophic and reduced-gravity shallow ocean whose field is truncated to four dominant modes able to reproduce the large scale oceanic gyres (Pierini in J Phys Oceanogr 41:1585–1604, 2011). The two models are coupled through mechanical forcings only. The analysis of its dynamics reveals first that under aperiodic atmospheric forcings only dominant single gyres (clockwise or counterclockwise) appear, while for periodic atmospheric solutions the double gyres emerge. In the present model domain setting context, this feature is related to the level of truncation of the atmospheric fields, as indicated by a preliminary analysis of the impact of higher wavenumber (“synoptic” scale) modes on the development of oceanic gyres. In the latter case, double gyres appear in the presence of a chaotic atmosphere. Second the dynamical quantities characterizing the short-term predictability (Lyapunov exponents, Lyapunov dimension, Kolmogorov–Sinaï (KS) entropy) displays a complex dependence as a function of the key parameters of the system, namely the coupling strength and the external thermal forcing. In particular, the KS-entropy is increasing as a function of the coupling in most of the experiments, implying an increase of the rate of loss of information about the localization of the system on its attractor. Finally the dynamics of the error is explored and indicates, in particular, a rich variety of short term behaviors of the error in the atmosphere depending on the (relative) amplitude of the initial error affecting the ocean, from polynomial (at 2 + bt 3 + ct 4) up to exponential-like evolutions. These features are explained and analyzed in the light of the recent findings on error growth (Nicolis et al. in J Atmos Sci 66:766–778, 2009). 相似文献
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The climate evolution and change in the Amazonian area is very important at least at a continental scale involving Latin America where more than 550 million people live. The objective of the present study was to investigate, from an environmental perspective, the climatic trends in the Amazonian area of continental Ecuador. We performed both classical and multifractal analyses of these trends on four climatic variables (maximum and minimum temperature, evaporation and evaporation/precipitation ratio). Data were collected from Puyo meteorological station, Pastaza Province, Ecuador. Data sets covered 31 years (from January 1974 to September 2005). Each time series consisted of 380 months.Piecewise regression analyses with breaking point showed two regimes with a cutoff ranging from t = 80 months (maximum and minimum temperature) to t = 133 months for the evaporation pattern (determination coefficient ≥ 0.979) while the multifractal analyses showed an increasing complexity within each climatic variable. All the considered climatic variables showed an increase since 1974 to approximately 1985. After that some type of smoother increase was observed. 相似文献
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Multiscale evolution of surface air temperature in the arid region of Northwest China and its linkages to ocean oscillations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Chen Zhongsheng Chen Yaning Bai Ling Xu Jianhua 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,130(3-4):945-958
Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957–1989) and stage II (1990–2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were identified as the most dominant meteorological variables influencing annual ETo changes. The results are expected to assist water resource managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the research region. 相似文献
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Bartosz Czernecki Marek Półrolniczak Leszek Kolendowicz Michał Marosz Sebastian Kendzierski Natalia Pilguj 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2017,74(1):115-139
This study investigates atmospheric conditions’ influence on the mean and extreme characteristics of PM10 concentrations in Poznań during the period 2006–2013. A correlation analysis was carried out to identify the most important meteorological variables influencing the seasonal dynamics of PM10 concentrations. The highest absolute correlation values were obtained for planetary boundary layer height (r = ?0.57), thermal (daily minimum air temperature: r = ?0.51), anemological (average daily wind speed: r = ?0.37), and pluvial (precipitation occurrence: r = ?0.36) conditions, however the highest correlations were observed for temporal autocorrelations (1 day lag: r = 0.70). As regulated by law, extreme events were identified on the basis of daily threshold value i.e. 50 μg m?3. On average, annually there are approximately 71.3 days anywhere in the city when the threshold value is exceeded, 46.6 % of those occur in winter. Additionally, 83.7 % of these cases have been found to be continuous episodes of a few days, with the longest one persisting for 22 days. The analysis of the macro-scale circulation patterns led to the identification of an easy-to-perceive seasonal relations between atmospheric fields that favour the occurrence of high PM10 concentration, as well as synoptic situations contributing to the rapid air quality improvement. The highest PM10 concentrations are a clear reaction to a decrease in air temperature by over 3 °C, with simultaneous lowering of PBL height, mean wind speed (by around 1 m s?1) and changing dominant wind directions from western to eastern sectors. In most cases, such a situation is related to the expansion of a high pressure system over eastern Europe and weakening of the Icelandic Low. Usually, air quality conditions improve along with an intensification of westerlies associated with the occurrence of low pressure systems over western and central Europe. Opposite relations are distinguishable in summer, when air quality deterioration is related to the inflow of tropical air masses originating over the Sahara desert. 相似文献
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Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969–2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season (kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann–Kendall statistics (α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test (α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02–0.04 °C year?1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01–0.02 °C year?1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights. 相似文献
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Highly concentrated precipitation, where a large percentage of annual precipitation occurs over a few days, may include a high risk of flooding and severe soil erosion. Thus, areas with severe erosion such as the Loess Plateau in China are particularly vulnerable to highly concentrated precipitation events due to climate change. In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal patterns in the concentration of rainfall in the Middle Yellow River (MYR) from the last 56 years (1958–2013). We used daily and monthly precipitation data from 26 meteorological stations in the study area to calculate the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI). The southern and northern parts of the MYR were characterized by a lower CI with a decreasing trend, while the middle parts had a higher CI with an increasing trend. High PCI values occurred in the southern MYR, while lower PCIs with a more homogenous rainfall distribution were found mainly in the northern parts of the MYR. The annual PCI and CI exhibited positive trends at most stations, although only a minority of stations had significant trends (P < 0.05). At seasonal scales, CI exhibited significantly increasing trends in winter at most stations, while a few stations had significant trends in the other three seasons. These findings provide important reference information to facilitate ecological restoration and farming operations in the study region. 相似文献
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用天气变量时间序列估计天气的可预报性 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
本文从非线性系统的吸引子概念出发,用单个气象时间序列重构维数较高的相空间并嵌入天气吸引子,根据相轨道上初始时刻紧邻的点随时间的演化来估计吸引子的维数和天气的可预报性。用500hPa亚洲环流指数和北京冬季气温的逐日资料计算表明,天气吸引子的维数分别为3.8和5.4;可预报时间尺度约6—14天,考虑相空间e指数膨胀因素后为4—9天。 相似文献
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Unnikrishnan C. K. Rajeevan M. Vijaya Bhaskara Rao S. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):949-963
The spatial and temporal trends of 11 (7) temperature (precipitation) extreme indices are examined for the Loess Plateau Region (LPR) and its southeast and northwest sub-regions based on daily observations at 214 meteorological stations. Results show widespread significant warming trends for all the temperature extremes except for the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and the lowest daily maximum temperature in each year (TXn) during 1961–2010. When regionally averaged, a significant warming trend is detected for all the indices except for DTR and TXn in the past 50 years. Compared with the entire LPR, a significant warming trend is detected for all the indices except for DTR and TXn over the southeast sub-region of LPR; while it is observed for all the indices over the northwest. The trends for these indices are generally stronger in the northwest than in the southeast in the past 50 years. In contrast, for precipitation indices, only a small percentage of areas show significant drying or wetting trends and, when regionally averaged, none of them displays significant trends during the past 50 years. On the sub-regional scale, however, a larger percentage of areas show significant drying trends for precipitation indices generally over the southeast relative to the entire LPR, and noticeably, the sub-regional average heavy precipitation (R10mm) and wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) display significant decreasing trends during the past 50 years; whereas only a slightly larger percentage of areas show significant wetting trends for these indices over the northwest compared with the entire LPR, and when sub-regionally averaged, none of the indices have significant trends during the past 50 years. 相似文献
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Huaijun Wang Yaning Chen Shi Xun Dongmei Lai Yuting Fan Zhi Li 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):15-28
There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially for the arid region. We analyzed the changes in the indices of climate extremes, on the basis of daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation at 59 meteorological stations in the arid region of northwest China over the period 1960–2003. Twelve indices of extreme temperature and six indices of extreme precipitation are examined. Temperature extremes show a warming trend with a large proportion of stations having statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. The regional occurrence of extreme cool days and nights has decreased by ?0.93 and ?2.36 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has increased by 1.25 and 2.10 days/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days shows a statistically significant decrease at the rate of ?3.24 and ?2.75 days/decade, respectively. The extreme temperature indices also show the increasing trend, with larger values for the index describing variations in the lowest minimum temperature. The trends of Min Tmin (Tmax) and Max Tmin (Tmax) are 0.85 (0.61) and 0.32 (0.17)?°C/decade. Most precipitation indices exhibit increasing trends across the region. On average, regional maximum 1-day precipitation, annual total wet-day precipitation, and number of heavy precipitation days and very wet days show insignificant increases. Insignificant decreasing trends are also found for consecutive dry days. The rank-sum statistic value of most temperature indices exhibits consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. The regional medians after 1986 of Min Tmin (Tmax), Max Tmin (Tmax), warm days (nights), and warm spell duration indicator show statistically more larger than medians before 1986, but the frost days, ice days, cool days (nights), and diurnal temperature range reversed. The medians of precipitation indices show insignificant change except for consecutive dry days before and after 1986. 相似文献
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Liu Yonghe Zhang Kexin Zhang Wanchang Shao Yuehong Pei Hongqin Feng Jinming 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,111(1-2):37-50
Multifractal analysis can provide parameters associated with different scales of rainfall, which may be useful for setting up parsimonious downscaling models of rainfall, or for revealing climate-specific properties. Time series of rain rate with 1-min resolution collected from ten stations over a monsoon watershed in eastern China were used to study the multifractal properties. The power spectra estimated by fast Fourier transform (FFT) and discrete Haar wavelet transform (DWT) showed three scaling regimes: the sub-hourly scaling regime with β?≈?1.2, the scaling regime from 1 h to 1 day with β close to 0.6, and the low-frequency spectra plateau with β?≈?0.1. From the hyperbolic tails of exceeding probability distributions, the estimated values of parameter q c are in 2–2.5, which were consistent with the critical order of K(q) curves. The statistical moments display two main scaling regimes: the high-frequency regime from 3 min to 5 days and the scaling regime beyond 5 days. The scales of 5–10 days seem a transitional regime. The reason that the regimes, revealed by the power spectra, disagree with the statistical moments may be that both FFT and DWT power spectra have limited abilities of analyzing low-frequency scaling but are sensitive to the properties in high-frequency scales. The H values estimated for the regime of sub-hourly scales are larger than 0.4, and the values for the regime 1 h–1 day are close to 0.1. For the low-frequency scales beyond 1 day, negative H is obtained by DWT power spectra. The parameters of universal multifractal models were also estimated. The values of α for the scaling range of 1 min–5 days are 0.486?±?0.047, and for the low-frequency scaling range, its values are 0.808?±?0.323. For the high- and low-frequency scaling ranges, the values of C 1 are 0.5 and 0.169, respectively, which is different from the values for daily rainfall series collected at the same rain gages. 相似文献
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Temperature fluctuations in a convective surface layer were investigated. Box counting analysis was performed to investigate fractal properties of surfaces of constant temperature and was performed on sets of points obtained by setting thresholds on detrended records. Results indicate that surfaces of constant temperature have fractal properties for thresholds far from the mean. Estimated fractal dimensions of one-dimensional cuts through these surfaces varied between 0.23 and 0.66, increasing with threshold value approaching the mean temperature. For thresholds close to the mean, no fractal behavior was found. Asymmetry in results for thresholds above and below the mean temperature was attributed to the asymmetry between updrafts and downdrafts in the convective surface layer.The temperature dissipation rate (TD) was also investigated. It was found to be strongly intermittent with large fluctuations of the intermittency exponent. Moments were analyzed in order to investigate multifractal properties of TD. Results indicate scaling in the range of 50–1000 (where is the Kolmogorov scale) and multifractal properties resembling those observed for passive scalar dissipation in laboratory flows. 相似文献