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1.
Vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Otar Varazanashvili Nino Tsereteli Avtandil Amiranashvili Emil Tsereteli Elizbar Elizbarashvili Jemal Dolidze Lado Qaldani Manana Saluqvadze Shota Adamia Nika Arevadze Aleksandre Gventcadze 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(3):2021-2056
2.
Heidi Kreibich Philip Bubeck Michael Kunz Holger Mahlke Stefano Parolai Bijan Khazai James Daniell Tobia Lakes Kai Schröter 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2279-2304
Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions. 相似文献
3.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
4.
Although geophysical hazards like earthquakes can lead to tremendous losses, they are often neglected or not considered in risk analyses within an Alpine context. However, lately and especially in the framework of multi-risk analyses, earthquake risk studies are being increasingly implemented within an Alpine relation too. The presented study was conducted to quantitatively estimate potential consequences of earthquake events in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. The methodological study framework integrates the general risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. They are considered on a regional scale, accepting pragmatic approaches with simplified procedures and assumptions. Scenarios for different potential epicentres were calculated based on two different macroseismic hazard maps derived from punctual ground motion values of the building code and microzonation studies. The maps take into account the design event definitions of existing building code and a, thereupon based, simple and mono-causal Maximum Credible Earthquake assumption. Corresponding elements at risk and damage potentials were identified and potential losses were estimated under consideration of different vulnerability approaches. It can be shown that most scenarios based on the design event definition of the Austrian and European building codes, respectively have the potential of building and inventory losses solely of some hundred million up to approximately €4 billion. Additional, building and inventory losses of maximum credible events can lead to losses of more than €7 billion merely in connection with the primary earthquake event neglecting all other cascading effects. 相似文献
5.
Iuliana Arma? 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):1129-1156
The expansive infrastructure, along with the high population density, makes cities highly vulnerable to the severe impacts of natural hazards. In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, the need for evaluating and visualizing the vulnerability of urban areas becomes a necessity in helping practitioners and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. The paper presented is a piece of exploratory research. The overall aim is to develop a spatial vulnerability approach to address earthquake risk, using a semi-quantitative model. The model uses the analytical framework of a spatial GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. For this approach, we have chosen Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, based on its high vulnerability to earthquakes due to a rapid urban growth and the advanced state of decay of the buildings (most of the building stock were built between 1940 and 1977). The spatial result reveals a circular pattern, pinpointing as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a meadow and river terrace, and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In a sustainable development perspective, the example of Bucharest shows how spatial patterns shape the ??vulnerability profile?? of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper prediction and mitigation strategies and enhance the resilience of cities against the risks resulting from the earthquake hazard. 相似文献
6.
Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the
boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone
areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and
increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still
treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific
natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the
current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies
aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with
fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial
units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing
them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The
method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard
maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical
territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable
maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban
systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as
2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major
accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core. 相似文献
7.
H. Taubenb?ck N. Goseberg G. L?mmel N. Setiadi T. Schlurmann K. Nagel F. Siegert J. Birkmann K.-P. Traub S. Dech V. Keuck F. Lehmann G. Strunz H. Kl��pfel 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):915-945
More than ever before, the last decade revealed the immense vulnerability of the world??s cities to natural hazards. Neither the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cyclone Nargis in 2008 nor the earthquakes in Sichuan in 2008 or in Haiti 2010 found the people, the city administrations or the national or international organizations well prepared in the advent of anticipated but to a large extent disregarded natural disasters. It is evident that the lack of tailor-made disaster management plans and standard operational procedures are often the crucial point in proper risk reduction approaches. This study presents an approach to transfer knowledge of an extensive multidisciplinary scientific study on risk identification into recommendations for risk reduction strategies. The study has been conducted by means of a combination of experts from different scientific communities coming from civil and coastal engineering, remote sensing, social sciences, evacuation modelling and capacity development. The paper presents the results of this research approach and interweaves key findings with recent experiences from an eyewitness on a previous hazard event. Thus, necessary tsunami hazard and vulnerability information as well as valuable insights into preparedness activities have been derived for initiating updated infrastructural designs and practical recommendations for emergency management as well as strategic spatial planning activities at the local scale. The approach was applied in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation planning in the coastal city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia. 相似文献
8.
Spatial scan statistics in vulnerability assessment: an application to mountain hazards 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
In the European Alps, the concept of risk has increasingly been applied in order to reduce the susceptibility of society to mountain hazards. Risk is defined as a function of the magnitude and frequency of a hazard process times consequences; the latter being quantified by the value of elements at risk exposed and their vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined by the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from the impact of a natural hazard. Recent empirical studies suggested a dependency of the degree of loss on the hazard impact, and respective vulnerability (or damage-loss) functions were developed. However, until now, only little information is available on the spatial characteristics of vulnerability on a local scale; considerable ranges in the loss ratio for medium process intensities only provide a hint that there might be mutual reasons for lower or higher loss rates. In this paper, we therefore focus on the spatial dimension of vulnerability by searching for spatial clusters in the damage ratio of elements at risk exposed. By using the software SaTScan, we applied an ordinal data model and a normal data model in order to detect spatial distribution patterns of five individual torrent events in Austria. For both models, we detected some significant clusters of high damage ratios, and consequently high vulnerability. Moreover, secondary clusters of high and low values were found. Based on our results, the assumption that lower process intensities result in lower damage ratios, and therefore in lower vulnerability, and vice versa, has to be partly rejected. The spatial distribution of vulnerability is not only dependent on the process intensities but also on the overall land use pattern and the individual constructive characteristics of the buildings exposed. Generally, we suggest the use of a normal data model for test sites exceeding a minimum of 30 elements at risk exposed. As such, the study enhanced our understanding of spatial vulnerability patterns on a local scale. 相似文献
9.
Ratiranjan Jena Biswajeet Pradhan Ghassan Beydoun Nizamuddin Ardiansyah Hizir Sofyan Muzailin Affan 《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,(2):613-634
Catastrophic natural hazards,such as earthquake,pose serious threats to properties and human lives in urban areas.Therefore,earthquake risk assessment(ERA)is indispensable in disaster management.ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and vulnerability of assets.This study develops an integrated model by using the artificial neural network–analytic hierarchy process(ANN–AHP)model for constructing the ERA map.The aim of the study is to quantify urban population risk that may be caused by impending earthquakes.The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia,a seismically active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes.ANN is used for probability mapping,whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering.The risk map is subsequently created by combining the probability,hazard,and vulnerability maps.Then,the risk levels of various zones are obtained.The validation process reveals that the proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an accuracy of 84%.Furthermore,results show that the central and southeastern regions of the city have moderate to very high risk classifications,whereas the other parts of the city fall under low to very low earthquake risk classifications.The findings of this research are useful for government agencies and decision makers,particularly in estimating risk dimensions in urban areas and for the future studies to project the preparedness strategies for Banda Aceh. 相似文献
10.
Landslides as secondary seismic effects are causing some patterns of soil failure that are often considered among the most destructive ones. In fact, the impact from triggered landslides has sometimes exceeded damage directly related to strong shaking and fault rupture. The objective of this research study is landslide hazard and risk assessment considering different water saturation and earthquake scenarios, for a selected area in a sub-urban hilly part of Skopje—the capital of Macedonia. The final product is represented by digital maps of expected permanent displacements for a defined earthquake scenario, in different water saturation conditions of the instable soil layer. Qualitative landslide risk assessment is performed taking into consideration the exposure map of the habitants and local road of the area. As to the target area, it can be concluded that it has the potential for instability that, under certain scenarios, could result in economic and social damage (vulnerability of individual houses, vulnerability of infrastructure and alike). The results from this study referring to potentially affected population and infrastructure present solid base for preventive mitigation activities for reducing the consequences of geotechnical hazards in Skopje City associated with earthquakes. 相似文献
11.
G. Grünthal A. H. Thieken J. Schwarz K. S. Radtke A. Smolka B. Merz 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):21-44
In this paper a methodology for a multi-risk assessment of an urban area is introduced and performed for the city of Cologne,
Germany, considering the natural hazards windstorm, flooding and earthquake. Moreover, sources of the uncertainty in the analysis
and future needs for research are identified. For each peril the following analyses were undertaken: hazard assessment, vulnerability
assessment and estimation of losses. To compare the three hazard types on a consistent basis, a common economic assessment
of exposed assets was developed. This was used to calculate direct economic losses to buildings and their contents. The perils
were compared by risk curves showing the exceedence probability of the estimated losses. In Cologne, most of the losses that
occur frequently are due to floods and windstorms. For lower return periods (10–200 years) the risk is dominated by floods.
For return periods of more than 200 years the highest damage is caused by earthquakes. 相似文献
12.
The Denver Region in Colorado, USA, is used as an example of the seismic vulnerability of a region that is not generally considered seismically active. The HAZUS (Hazards United States) natural hazard vulnerability program of United States and an integral geographical information system are used to create the regional distribution of Denver’s potential consequences of an earthquake. Two realistic scenario earthquakes are employed based on a detailed study of seismic activity in the region. Outcomes include casualties, displaced households, building damage by construction material type, hospital functionality, highway bridge functionality, and infrastructure recovery rates. Demographic information includes the use of public transportation, elderly population, and vulnerability based on education, income, and race. Additionally, the type and frequency of communication among key planning agencies and other organizations in the region are investigated through the use of personal interviews as well as a survey to determine the degree to which these agencies consider seismic risk in their communication and coordination planning. 相似文献
13.
Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh 总被引：14，自引：8，他引：6
Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh, very little attention has been so far paid to the mitigation and preparedness
of droughts. This article presents a method for spatial assessment of drought risk in Bangladesh. A conceptual framework,
which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the study. Standardized precipitation
index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extents of drought hazards in different time steps. The key social
and physical factors that define drought vulnerability in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic
maps in district level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the integration of those thematic
maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and vulnerability. The result shows that droughts pose highest risk
to the northern and northwestern districts of Bangladesh. 相似文献
14.
Jerusalem was hit by earthquakes several times in its history, in the course of which none of the holy sites of the three
main faiths of the western world escaped damage. Intensities of the last ML 6.2, July 11, 1927 Dead Sea earthquake, reached MSK VIII in the Old City of Jerusalem and the surrounding villages. As future
strong earthquakes are inevitable, the need for the evaluation of earthquake-related hazards is obvious. Only general geotechnical
properties of the section exposed in the mountainous area of Jerusalem are available; therefore, the hazard assessment was
conducted from a geological perspective. The hazards identified in this study are: (1) amplification of seismic acceleration
due to soft rock and soil conditions; (2) amplification due to mountainous topography; (3) dynamic instability of natural
slopes; and (4) potential failure of slopes that have undergone engineering development and were weakened due to damaging,
steepening, overloading, and wetting beyond their natural state. We formulated relative grades of vulnerability for each of
the hazards and delineated the zones that require further specific investigation. For practical use we constructed a summary
map that combines the different hazard categories. Looking at the summary map, the ground at the central N–S axis zone across
Jerusalem is the least vulnerable. The bedrock there is mostly hard carbonate, the topography is mild, and thus only the alluvial
cover, if thicker than 3 m, should be considered sensitive. Yet although the natural hazard in this area is limited, the risk
should not be underrated. Much of the city lies there, including buildings constructed before antiseismic codes were regulated,
and traditional engineering practice should not be taken for granted as antiseismic proof either. Eastwards, the shear wave
velocity (Vs) contrast between the hard and soft rocks as well as the notable topography in places, impose the potential for
amplification. Slopes, either naturally or artificially cutting into the soft chalk, may expose the area to dynamic instability;
thus, the ongoing extensive development of the city in this direction should certainly take into account all of this. West
of the central axis, the potential of failure of both steep natural and urbanized slopes appears. Being a plausible direction
for future urban expansion, these areas specifically call for careful environmental and engineering planning. For engineering
purposes, however, a specific site investigation is still necessary. Nevertheless, the summary map established in this study
sets up for Jerusalem, for the first time, a practical tool for environmental and municipal planning, emergency response planning,
and civil protection. 相似文献
15.
Assessments of natural hazards and risks are beneficial for sustainable planning and natural hazard risk management. On a regional scale, quantitative hazard and risk assessments are data intensive and methods developed are difficult to transfer to other regions and to analyse different periods in a given region. Such transfers could be beneficial regarding factors of global change influencing the patterns of natural hazard and risk. The aim of this study was to show the landslide exposure of different elements at risk in one map, e.g. residential buildings and critical infrastructure, as a solid basis for an in-depth analysis of vulnerability and consequent risk. This enables to overcome the data intensive assessments on a regional scale and highlights the potential hotspots for risk analysis. The study area is located in the alpine foreland in Lower Austria and comprises around 112 km2. The results show the different levels of exposure, as well as how many layers of elements at risk are affected. Several exposure hotspots can be delineated throughout the study area. This allows a decision on in-depth analysis of hotspots not only by indicated locations but also by a rank resulting from the different layers of incorporated elements at risk. 相似文献
16.
青藏高原多灾种自然灾害综合风险管理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
青藏高原是中国自然灾害多发、频发重点区域,区内地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决、雪灾等灾种广泛发育,其灾害分布较广,灾损及其影响巨大,已成为高原经济社会可持续、健康发展的一个重要制约因素。高原自然灾害风险等级具有明显的空间异质性。整体上,地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决灾害高危区位于高原南部和东部边缘大片区域,该区域也是高原多灾种频发地带,许多路网和管网均处于该频发地段,其潜在危害巨大。青藏高原地形地貌复杂、气候变化空间异质性较强、冰冻圈发育,交通等基础设施广布,经济条件较差,这些因素形成了多灾种自然灾害发育的主要致灾因子和孕灾环境。高原受多致灾因子共同影响,各灾种承灾体多有重叠之处,亟须加强多灾种自然灾害综合管控研究。综合风险管控主导思路是决策者利用多灾种成灾机理研究结果,通过工程和非工程措施,以及各部门联防联控理念,全过程防范、减缓或规避自然灾害综合风险。具体综合风险管控策略如实时监测/观测、信息共享、部委会商、群测群防、防灾教育培训、保险承担、灾前规划。 相似文献
17.
Physical vulnerability assessment for alpine hazards: state of the art and future needs 总被引：8，自引：5，他引：3
Mountain hazards such as landslides, floods and avalanches pose a serious threat to human lives and development and can cause
considerable damage to lifelines, critical infrastructure, agricultural lands, housing, public and private infrastructure
and assets. The assessment of the vulnerability of the built environment to these hazards is a topic that is growing in importance
due to climate change impacts. A proper understanding of vulnerability will lead to more effective risk assessment, emergency
management and to the development of mitigation and preparedness activities all of which are designed to reduce the loss of
life and economic costs. In this study, we are reviewing existing methods for vulnerability assessment related to mountain
hazards. By analysing the existing approaches, we identify difficulties in their implementation (data availability, time consumption)
and differences between them regarding their scale, the consideration of the hazardous phenomenon and its properties, the
consideration of important vulnerability indicators and the use of technology such as GIS and remote sensing. Finally, based
on these observations, we identify the future needs in the field of vulnerability assessment that include the user-friendliness
of the method, the selection of all the relevant indicators, the transferability of the method, the inclusion of information
concerning the hazard itself, the use of technology (GIS) and the provision of products such as vulnerability maps and the
consideration of the temporal pattern of vulnerability. 相似文献
18.
Zhenming Wang 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):749
Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations. 相似文献
19.
Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima. 相似文献
20.
In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province. 相似文献