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1.
20世纪90年代鄱阳湖洪水特征的分析 总被引：8，自引：10，他引：8
20世纪90年代,鄱阳湖平均水位超过近50年来的任何10年,年最高水位出现近100年来的最大值,灾害性洪水年年都有,大洪水接二连三;洪水位明显偏高,大洪水显著偏多,是有水文资料记载以来典型的丰水时期;本文从水文,统计角度分析这10年里的洪水特征,探讨高水位形成的原因。 相似文献
2.
全球大陆末次盛冰期气候和植被研究进展 总被引：14，自引：3，他引：11
略述了鄱阳湖围垦的简要历史和现状,分析了近５０年来洪水水位的演变趋势,指出围垦使鄱阳湖面积和容积缩小,调蓄功能衰退,以致水情不断恶化,洪峰水位逐渐上升,高水位的出现频率明显加大,致灾洪水越来越频繁,在此基础上,将围垦对洪水位的影响进行了分析计算,得出了各典型年洪水在不同围垦背景下的围垦效应值。 相似文献
3.
鄱阳湖是长江水系中的两大通江湖泊之一,在调节长江水位、涵养水源、改善当地气候和维护周围地区生态平衡等方面都起着巨大的作用。鄱阳湖水利枢纽的修建可能导致湖泊水文情势和水动力的变化。本文基于MIKE 21构建鄱阳湖二维水动力模型,选取1954年和1998年特大洪水年以及1991年长江倒灌年作为运行期的典型年,选取1995年作为施工期典型年,按照规划中的鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程施工及运行调度方案,计算水利枢纽修建前后鄱阳湖水位和流量的变化,定量分析枢纽工程对长江干流、鄱阳湖湖区及尾闾附近洪水动力的影响。结果表明:不同典型年鄱阳湖水利枢纽对长江干流、湖区及尾闾的洪水动力影响相似,其中洪水期、倒灌期及施工期一期对长江防洪、湖区及尾闾附近的影响较小,施工期二期湖区水位壅高幅度最高达0.237 m,对鄱阳湖湖区及尾闾附近防洪有一定影响;枢纽工程对星子、都昌、康山等湖区水文站水位影响幅度较为接近,且越靠近尾闾,影响越小。整体而言,鄱阳湖水利枢纽的修建会导致洪水年鄱阳湖湖区水位壅高,倒灌期湖区水位降低,湖区流速降低,但变化幅度均较小,故枢纽工程施工期和运行期对汛期行洪影响不大。 相似文献
4.
为满足流域防洪规划工作的需要,针对鄱阳湖湖区暴雨洪水特点,分别用面积比拟法,修正总入流法,单水源模型（现预报方案）,新安江三水源模型,对湖区４个实际大水年份进行分析计算．在新安江三水源模型中分析了鄱阳湖高低水位时水陆面积变化对产汇流的影响,并给出了相应的计算公式．结果表明,复杂的概念性降雨径流模型能充分地模拟径流洪水过程;而在合理的条件下,运用简单的方法亦能取得较好的效果,通过比较分析,提出鄱阳湖 相似文献
5.
为定量评估汇流顶托对水位变化的影响,本文从水文过程仿真及顶托响应评价入手,提出了一种汇流顶托对水位影响的量化分析方法,并以长江汉口江段为例,开展了鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口江段水位影响的量化评价,结果表明:改进提出的长江汉口江段水文仿真模型,经参数优选后确定性系数可达0.98以上,总量相对误差绝对值在3%以内,较好地再现了水文变化过程;通过响应指数定义及水文过程模拟,研制了汉口多值型水位流量关系响应特征曲线,揭示了鄱阳湖与长江水位变化的关联性机制;经2016和2020年洪水实例分析,汉口江段长历时高洪水位主要受长江来水及鄱阳湖汇流顶托共同驱动,二者合力贡献可达83.3%以上,其中鄱阳湖汇流顶托贡献率在35%左右.其余因素(如区间洪水、沿江排涝等)亦助推高洪水位形成,部分时段贡献可达近34.4%.本文提出的顶托量化分析方法,可定量评估因顶托效应引起的水位变化,为解析河段高洪水位成因机制提供了有效的技术支撑. 相似文献
6.
7.
鄱阳湖是我国最大的淡水湖,也是具有国际意义的候鸟越冬地. 近年来,鄱阳湖水文情势异常使得候鸟越冬环境更加复杂. 本文以2020年鄱阳湖出现夏季极端水位为背景,基于2019和2020年鄱阳湖越冬水鸟同步调查数据,探讨了夏季极端水位对越冬水鸟丰富度和空间分布的影响. 研究结果表明：夏季极端水位条件下鄱阳湖越冬水鸟的总数量、群落结构和优势物种组成相对稳定,水鸟数量由597307只下降至572358只,主要是鸭科、鸥科、鹳科、鸬鹚科和鹮科鸟类数量明显下降;食块茎、食种子和食鱼集团水鸟数量均有所下降. 水鸟的整体空间分布格局变化不大,主要栖息地仍为鄱阳湖保护区和上饶湿地的碟形湖及人控湖汊,越冬水鸟向人工湿地扩散加剧. 2019年在人工湿地主要记录到灰鹤926只、白鹤3只;2020年则记录到白鹤2215只、灰鹤7294只、白头鹤88只、白枕鹤378只、豆雁550只、鸿雁3100只、灰雁3200只和小天鹅1543只. 2020年冬季人工湿地中的越冬水鸟数量比2019年增加显著. 鄱阳湖夏季极端水位导致沉水植物群落崩溃,造成植食性水鸟在天然湿地中的越冬食物短缺,从而导致种群空间分布格局出现明显变化,这也是鹤类和雁类水鸟前往人工湿地觅食的主要原因. 因此,在夏季洪水频发的背景下加强人工湿地管理,是当前解决越冬水鸟天然湿地食物资源短缺的重要措施. 相似文献
8.
地球自转速率变化与河道演变及泥沙灾害关系初探 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
丰沙期及低频率、高强度洪水往往酿成泥沙灾害和洪涝灾害。地球自转变化是影响河道演变与诱发泥沙灾害的重要的自然因素,由长江、黄河及淮河的部分水沙资料及地球自转日长变化资料的初步分析表明,当地球自转由加速转向减速时,黄河下游出现枯水、少沙时期,长江中下游及淮河出现高频率、低强度洪水;而地球自转由减速转向加速时,黄河下游出现丰水期和中、丰沙期,长江与淮河出现低频率、高强度洪水,长江下游处于切滩旺盛期。在地球自转变化的转折点之间,河道处于相对稳定演变阶段,一般不会发生严重的洪涝与泥沙灾害。 相似文献
9.
我国中原地区3500 aBP前后的异常洪水事件及其气候背景 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
我国中原地区的新寨期(3550~3400 aBP)属新石器文化晚期, 是龙山文化向二里头文化(夏文化)过渡的重要时期. 通过对河南新寨遗址新寨期人类生存环境的研究, 发现这一时期是一个异常洪水时期, 洪涝灾害给当地的古代人类生存环境造成严重的威胁和破坏. 孢粉分析和氧、碳同位素测定表明, 相对于龙山期和二里头期干燥-半干燥的气候环境, 新寨期气候明显变湿. 气候的突然变湿与异常洪水事件同期出现, 说明气候的转型可能是导致洪水频发的主要原因. 这一发现不仅加深了对中原地区3500 aBP前后环境演变的认识, 而且由于此时恰好处于华夏文明起源的前夜, 因此也为探讨华夏文明起源的环境背景提供了重要的线索. 相似文献
10.
鄱阳湖产银鱼的繁殖生物学 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
本文记述了鄱阳湖产太湖短吻银鱼(Neosalanx tangkahkeii taihuensis)、乔氏短吻银鱼(Neosalanx jordani)、雷氏银鱼(Reganisalanx brachyrostralis)等三种银鱼的成熟年龄、繁殖时期、生殖群体的体长、性比、生殖力、卵的特征等繁殖生物学资料,并记述了太湖短吻银鱼性腺成熟系数的周年变化、太湖短吻银鱼和乔氏短吻银鱼的产卵生态条件等。近二十年来鄱阳湖银鱼产量急剧下降的主要原因是产卵场遭到了严重破坏。银鱼生命周期仅一年,繁殖力强,认为加强繁殖保护、合理安排捕捞时间是恢复鄱阳湖银鱼资源的关键措施。 相似文献
11.
D. M. Pechersky A. A. Lyubushin Z. V. Sharonova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(7):613-623
The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The
times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized
by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and
the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between
the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic
world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by
the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle
of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes
in the organic world. 相似文献
12.
In this paper, the changes in sediment transport over 51 years from 1955 to 2006 in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China are assessed. Key factors affecting sediment yield and sediment transport, such as precipitation depth, discharge, and human activities are studied. To investigate the changes in sediment yield in this watershed, a trend analysis on sediment concentration, precipitation depth, and discharge is conducted. Precipitation depths at 2 Climate Stations （CSs）, as well as discharge and sediment transport at 3 Gauging Stations （GSs） are used to assess the features of sediment transport in the Kuye River. The rtmoff modulus （defined as the annual average discharge per unit area, L/（s·km^2）） and the sediment transport modulus （defined as the annual suspended sediment transport per unit area, t/（yr km^2）） are introduced in this study to assess the changes in runoff and sediment yield for this watershed. The results show that the highest average monthly discharge during the study period in the Kuye River is 66.23 m^3/s in August with an average monthly sediment concentration of 88.9 kg/m^3. However, the highest average monthly sediment concentration during the study period in the Kuye River is 125.34 kg/m^3 and occurs in July, which has an average discharge of 42.6 m^3/s that is much less than the average monthly discharge in August. It is found that both the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS on the Kuye River has a clear downward trend. During the summer season from July to August, the sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS is much higher than those at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs on the Yellow River. The easily erodible loess in the Kuye River watershed and the sparse vegetation are responsible for the extremely high sediment yield from the Kuye River watershed. The analyses of the grain size distribution of suspended load in the Kuye River are presented. The average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Kuye River is largest in February and then decreases until June. In July, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load approaches another peak and decreases until September. Then, the median grain size of suspended load starts to increase until February of the following year. However, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Yellow River at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs is the smallest between early summer and late fall The median grain size in the Yellow River starts to increase in November and approaches the largest size in January. 相似文献
13.
The developed dynamic model of the main geomagnetic field (MGF) includes the sources of three levels, which have existed and continuously changed during the 100-year period. The spatial-temporal dynamics of the secular variations in MGF has been considered based on this model. It has been indicated that, at different times, the formation of anomalies (located in similar regions) depended on the total dynamics of different combinations of sources, including a change in the parameters of the dipoles of the secondorder smallness. Anomalies generated by the dynamics of the dipoles of the third-order smallness do not evidently manifest themselves in the total secular variations but are responsible for the specific shapes of isodynamic lines. Based on the stability and continuity of the constructed model, the conclusion is made that long-living turbulent flows of different scales can exist in the liquid core. 相似文献
14.
Site response in the Qionghai Basin in the Wenchuan earthquake 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Amplification effects of soil site response can significantly impact ground motions, and must be considered in the seismic fortification of buildings/structures to prevent or mitigate this potential seismic hazard. Utilizing acceleration time histories from the main shock of the Wenchuan earthquake recorded at four stations (i.e., one on bedrock and three on soil) in the Qionghai Basin, the site responses from three soil sites are studied by using the traditional spectral ratio method. The bedrock site is selected as a reference site. This study found that peak ground accelerations (PGAs) on the soil sites are much larger than on bedrock, with EW, NS and UD components of 3.96–6.58, 6.27–10.98, and 3.17–6.66 times those of the bedrock site, respectively. The amplification effects of the soil sites on ground motions in the frequency range of 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz are significant, depending on the thickness of the soil layer and the frequency content of the site. A significant amplification occurs with high frequency components of ground motion at shallow soil sites, and low and high frequency components of ground motion at intermediate soil sites. 相似文献
15.
The continuous increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to cool higher levels of the atmosphere. There is some direct and indirect experimental evidence of long-term trends in temperature and other parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Here we look for long-term trends in the annual and semiannual variations of the radio wave absorption in the lower ionosphere, which corresponds to the MLT region heights. Data from central and southeastern Europe are used. A consistent tendency to a positive trend in the amplitude of the semiannual wave appears to be observed. The reality of a similar tendency in the amplitude of the annual wave is questionable in the sense that the trend in the amplitude of the annual wave is probably induced by the trend in the yearly average values of absorption. The phases of both the annual and semiannual waves display a forward tendency, i.e. shift to an earlier time in the year. A tentative interpretation of these results in terms of changes of the seasonal variation of temperature and wind at MLT heights does not contradict the trends observed in those parameters. 相似文献
16.
浙江省北部及邻区中强地震前地倾斜异常特征及其预测意义 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
钟羽云 《地震地磁观测与研究》1998,(3)
解释并讨论了湖州和宁波台１９９３年以来的地倾斜资料,总结了震前有异常显示的６次地震。发现：①异常在现场记录资料中均有显示,异常形态的识别对预报地震有重要的意义;②能观测到异常全过程的倾斜仪与震中的距离基本符合式ｌｇＤｊ＝０．３０３（ＭＳ＋１．６）给出的监测能力半径,大于这个半径的台有时也能观测到异常,但多为短临异常。如果震前记录到异常的全过程,则利用单台资料可能对地震三要素进行预测。 相似文献
17.
Yu. F. Moroz T. A. Moroz V. A. Loginov A. G. Nurmukhamedov D. A. Alekseev 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(1):29-44
The results of the magnetotelluric (MT) soundings before and after an earthquake are analyzed. The interpretation is based on the longitudinal and transverse MT curves (along and across the strike of the main tectonic elements, respectively). The MT curves are distorted by the ρ- and coast effect. The distortions due to the coast effect are estimated by the testing three-dimensional (3D) model. It is established that the coast effect distortion at the periods up to 1000 s is small and can be disregarded. The divergence of the longitudinal and transverse MT curves, which points to the presence of the deep faults, is thoroughly studied. The inversion of the MTsounding curves is carried out by the REBOCC program of the numerical two-dimensional modeling. This program implements the procedures of elimination of the ρ-effect and the joint inversion of the longitudinal and transverse MT sounding curves. The obtained geoelectrical cross sections provide an insight into the structure of electrical conductivity of the lithosphere before and after the earthquake. The more intense variations in the electric conductivity are observed in the zone of the deep faults. These variations are related to the changes in the porosity and saturation of the rocks by the highly mineralized fluids. 相似文献
18.
M. MONIRUL QADER MIRZA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):613-631
Abstract The basin area of the Ganges River in Bangladesh is extremely dependent on a regular water supply from upstream to meet requirements for agriculture, fisheries, navigation, salinity control, and domestic and industrial sectors. In 1975, India commissioned a barrage on the Ganges River at Farakka to divert a significant portion of the dry season flow in order to make the Calcutta Port navigable. Statistical analyses of discharge and water level data have been carried out to determine if significant changes have occurred in the hydrology of the Ganges system in Bangladesh in the post-Farakka period. Siltation of the Gorai River (an offtake of the Ganges River) has also been examined using the stage-discharge relationship and regression analysis. The analyses show that the diversion has caused considerable hydrological changes in the Ganges system in Bangladesh. The water supply in the dry season has been reduced substantially, while siltation of the Gorai River has increased significantly. 相似文献
19.
George E. Backus 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1982,28(3):191-214
A rigorous singular perturbation theory is developed to estimate the electric field E produced in the mantle M by the core dynamo when the electrical conductivity σ in M depends only on radius r, and when |r?rln σ| ? 1 in most of M. It is assumed that σ has only one local minimum in M, either (a) at the Earth's surface ?V, or (b) at a radius b inside the mantle, or (c) at the core-mantle boundary ?K. In all three cases, the region where σ is no more than e times its minimum value constitutes a thin critical layer; in case (a), the radial electric field Er ≈ 0 there, while in cases (b) and (c), Er is very large there. Outside the critical layer, Er ≈ 0 in all three cases. In no case is the tangential electric field ES small, nearly toroidal, or nearly calculable from the magnetic vector potential A as ??tAS. The defects in Muth's (1979) argument which led him to contrary conclusions are identified. Benton (1979) cited Muth's work to argue that the core-fluid velocity u just below ?K can be estimated from measurements on ?V of the magnetic field B and its time derivative . A simple model for westward drift is discussed which shows that Benton's conclusion is also wrong.In case (a), it is shown that knowledge of σ in M is unnecessary for estimating ES on ?K with a relative error |r?r 1nσ|?1from measurements of ES on ?V and knowledge of ?tB in M (calculable from ?tB on ?V if σ is small). Then, in case (a), u just below ?K can be estimated as . The method is impractical unless the contribution to ES on ?V from ocean currents can be removed.The perturbation theory appropriate when σ in M is small is considered briefly; smallness of σ and of |r?r ln σ|?1 a independent questions. It is found that as σ → 0, B approaches the vacuum field in M but E does not; the explanation lies in the hydromagnetic approximation, which is certainly valid in M but fails as σ → 0. It is also found that the singular perturbation theory for |r?r ln σ|?1 is a useful tool in the perturbation calculations for σ when both σ and |r?r ln σ|?1 are small. 相似文献
20.
Hylland K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,53(10-12):614-619
Coastal ecosystems are impacted by many stressors, of which chemicals are possibly not the most important. Chemicals differ from most other stressors such as eutrophication and hypersedimentation in the time scale-effects from the latter act on the scale of weeks or months, whereas effects from chemicals may take years to manifest themselves in population or community changes. There are four different approaches available to manage chemicals in marine ecosystems: target contaminant levels, target individual effects, target community impacts (biodiversity) and, finally, target processes. These four differ in the analytical methods available and the analyst's ability to separate effects from chemicals from other environmental factors and natural variation. There is furthermore, a need to develop a framework to integrate biological effects methods with risk assessment methodology. Such integration will improve the basis for risk-based assessment of chemicals. A problematic issue relevant to all aspects of environmental management are the interactions between chemicals, and between chemicals and eutrophication or sedimentation. There is a clear need for more knowledge about such interactions. 相似文献