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1.
Intense explosive activity occurred repeatedly at Vesuvius during the nearly 1,600-year period between the two Plinian eruptions of Avellino (3.5 ka) and Pompeii (79 A.D.). By correlating stratigraphic sections from more than 40 sites around the volcano, we identify the deposits of six main eruptions (AP1-AP6) and of some minor intervening events. Several deposits can be traced up to 20 km from the vent. Their stratigraphic and dispersal features suggest the prevalence of two main contrasting eruptive styles, each involving a complex relationship between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases. The two main eruption styles are (1) sub-Plinian to phreato-Plinian events (AP1 and AP2 members), where deposits consist of pumice and scoria fall layers alternating with fine-grained, vesiculated, accretionary lapilli-bearing ashes; and (2) mixed, violent Strombolian to Vulcanian events (AP3-AP6 members), which deposited a complex sequence of fallout, massive to thinly stratified, scoria-bearing lapilli layers and fine ash beds. Morphology and density variations of the juvenile fragments confirm the important role played by magma-water interaction in the eruptive dynamics. The mean composition of the ejected material changes with time, and shows a strong correlation with vent position and eruption style. The ranges of intensity and magnitude of these events, derived by estimations of peak column height and volume of the ejecta, are significantly smaller than the values for the better known Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions of Vesuvius, enlarging the spectrum of the possible eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius, useful in the assessment of its potential hazard.  相似文献   

2.
Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).  相似文献   

3.
An extremely large magnitude eruption of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra, close to the Plio-Pleistocene boundary, central Japan, spread volcanic materials widely more than 290,000 km2 reaching more than 300 km from the probable source. Characteristics of the distal air-fall ash (>150 km away from the vent) and proximal pyroclastic deposits are clarified to constrain the eruptive style, history, and magnitude of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda eruption.Eruptive history had five phases. Phase 1 is phreatoplinian eruption producing >105 km3 of volcanic materials. Phases 2 and 3 are plinian eruption and transition to pyroclastic flow. Plinian activity also occurred in phase 4, which ejected conspicuous obsidian fragments to the distal locations. In phase 5, collapse of eruption column triggered by phase 4, generated large pyroclastic flow in all directions and resulted in more than 250–350 km3 of deposits. Thus, the total volume of this tephra amounts over 380–490 km3. This indicates that the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra is greater than 7. The huge thickness of reworked volcaniclastic deposits overlying the fall units also attests to the tremendous volume of eruptive materials of this tephra.Numerous ancient tephra layers with large volume have been reported worldwide, but sources and eruptive history are often unknown and difficult to determine. Comparison of distal air-fall ashes with proximal pyroclastic deposits revealed eruption style, history and magnitude of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra. Hence, recognition of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra, is useful for understanding the volcanic activity during the Pliocene to Pleistocene, is important as a boundary marker bed, and can be used to interpret the global environmental and climatic impact of large magnitude eruptions in the past.  相似文献   

4.
The 18–24 January 1913 eruption of Colima Volcano consisted of three eruptive phases that produced a complex sequence of tephra fall, pyroclastic surges and pyroclastic flows, with a total volume of 1.1 km3 (0.31 km3 DRE). Among these events, the pyroclastic flows are most interesting because their generation mechanisms changed with time. They started with gravitanional dome collapse (block-and-ash flow deposits, Merapi-type), changed to dome collapse triggered by a Vulcanian explosion (block-and-ash flow deposits, Soufrière-type), then ended with the partial collapse of a Plinian column (ash-flow deposits rich in pumice or scoria,). The best exposures of these deposits occur in the southern gullies of the volcano where Heim Coefficients (H/L) were obtained for the various types of flows. Average H/L values of these deposits varied from 0.40 for the Merapi-type (similar to the block-and-ash flow deposits produced during the 1991 and 1994 eruptions), 0.26 for the Soufrière-type events, and 0.17–0.26 for the column collapse ash flows. Additionally, the information of 1991, 1994 and 1998–1999 pyroclastic flow events was used to delimit hazard zones. In order to reconstruct the paths, velocities, and extents of the 20th Century pyroclastic flows, a series of computer simulations were conducted using the program FLOW3D with appropriate Heim coefficients and apparent viscosities. The model results provide a basis for estimating the areas and levels of hazard that could be associated with the next probable worst-case scenario eruption of the volcano. Three areas were traced according to the degree of hazard and pyroclastic flow type recurrence through time. Zone 1 has the largest probability to be reached by short runout (<5 km) Merapi and Soufrière pyroclastic flows, that have occurred every 3 years during the last decade. Zone 2 might be affected by Soufriere-type pyroclastic flows (∼9 km long) similar to those produced during phase II of the 1913 eruption. Zone 3 will only be affected by pyroclastic flows (∼15 km long) formed by the collapse of a Plinian eruptive column, like that of the 1913 climactic eruption. Today, an eruption of the same magnitude as that of 1913 would affect about 15,000 inhabitants of small villages, ranches and towns located within 15 km south of the volcano. Such towns include Yerbabuena, and Becerrera in the State of Colima, and Tonila, San Marcos, Cofradia, and Juan Barragán in the State of Jalisco.  相似文献   

5.
Analysis of the patterns of eruption occurrences may improve our understanding of volcanic processes. In this paper, the available historical data of an individual volcano, Colima in México, are used to classify its eruptions by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). The data shows that, if eruptions are only taken into account above a certain VEI level, the stochastic process associated with the explosive volcanic events can be represented by a non-stationary Poisson point process, which can be reduced to a homogeneous Poisson process through a transformation of the time axis. When eruptions are separated by VEI values, the occurrence patterns of each magnitude category can also be represented by a Poisson distribution. Analysis of the rate of occurrence of all eruptions with VEI greater than 1 permits the recognition of three distinct regimes or rates of volcanic activity during the last 430 years. A double stochastic Poisson model is suggested to describe this non-stationary eruptive pattern of Colima volcano and a Bayesian approach permits an estimation the present hazard.  相似文献   

6.
A model for the numerical simulation of tephra fall deposits   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  
A simple semianalytical model to simulate ash dispersion and deposition produced by sustained Plinian and sub-Plinian eruption columns based on the 2D advection–dispersion equation was applied. The eruption column acts as a vertical line source with a given mass distribution and neglects the complex dynamics within the eruption column. Thus, the use of the model is limited to areas far from the vent where the dynamics of the eruption column play a minor role. Vertical wind and diffusion components are considered negligible with respect to the horizontal ones. The dispersion and deposition of particles in the model is only governed by gravitational settling, horizontal eddy diffusion, and wind advection. The model accounts for different types and size classes of a user-defined number of particle classes and changing settling velocity with altitude. In as much as wind profiles are considered constant on the entire domain, the model validity is limited to medium-range distances (about 30–200 km away from the source).The model was used to reconstruct the tephra fall deposit from the documented Plinian eruption of Mt. Vesuvius, Italy, in 79 A.D. In this case, the model was able to broadly reproduce the characteristic medium-range tephra deposit. The results support the validity of the model, which has the advantage of being simple and fast to compute. It has the potential to serve as a simple tool for predicting the distribution of ash fall of hypothetical or real eruptions of a given magnitude and a given wind profile. Using a statistical set of frequent wind profiles, it also was used to construct air fall hazard maps of the most likely affected areas around active volcanoes where a large eruption is expected to occur.  相似文献   

7.
This paper describes the development and application of an impact model for a future hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe. The model was designed to assess the impact from either a single or multiple eruption scenarios, each defined in terms of a map of the intensity of three volcanic hazards; volcanogenic earthquake, tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The impact from the three hazards can be assessed independently or alternatively the joint impact of the three hazards can be assessed. The outputs that are produced from the model are; the number of buildings with collapsed roofs, and the number of fatal and non-fatal casualties.  相似文献   

8.
The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km2 caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.  相似文献   

9.
Physical parameters of explosive eruptions are typically derived from tephra deposits. However, the characterization of a given eruption relies strongly on the quality of the dataset used, the strategy chosen to obtain and process field data and the particular model considered to derive eruptive parameters. As a result, eruptive parameters are typically affected by a certain level of uncertainty and should not be considered as absolute values. Unfortunately, such uncertainty is difficult to assess because it depends on several factors and propagates from field sampling to the application and interpretation of dispersal models. Characterization of explosive eruptions is made even more difficult when tephra deposits are poorly exposed and only medial data are available. In this paper, we present a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with the characterization of tephra deposits generated by the two largest eruptions of the last 2,000 years of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador. In particular, we have investigated the effects of the determination of the maximum clast on the compilation of isopleth maps, and, therefore, on the characterization of plume height. We have also compared the results obtained from the application of different models for the determination of both plume height and erupted volume and for the eruption classification. Finally, we have investigated the uncertainty propagation into the calculation of mass eruption rate and eruption duration. We have found that for our case study, the determination of plume height from isopleth maps is more sensitive to the averaging techniques used to define the maximum clast than to the choice of dispersal models used (i.e. models of Carey and Sparks 1986; Pyle 1989) and that even the application of the same dispersal model can result in plume height discrepancies if different isopleth lines are used (i.e. model of Carey and Sparks 1986). However, the uncertainties associated with the determination of erupted mass, and, as a result, of the eruption duration, are larger than the uncertainties associated with the determination of plume height. Mass eruption rate is also associated with larger uncertainties than the determination of plume height because it is related to the fourth power of plume height. Eruption classification is also affected by data processing. In particular, uncertainties associated with the compilation of isopleth maps affect the eruption classification proposed by Pyle (1989), whereas the VEI classification is affected by the uncertainties resulting from the determination of erupted mass. Finally, we have found that analytical and empirical models should be used together for a more reliable characterization of explosive eruptions. In fact, explosive eruptions would be characterized better by a range of parameters instead of absolute values for erupted mass, plume height, mass eruption rate and eruption duration. A standardization of field sampling would also reduce the uncertainties associated with eruption characterization.  相似文献   

10.
The May 22, 1915 eruptions of Lassen Peak involved a volcanic blast and the emplacement of three geographically and temporally distinct lahar deposits. The volcanic blast occurred when a Vulcanian explosion at the summit unroofed a shallow magma source, generating an eruption cloud that rose to an estimated height of 9 km above sea level. The blast cloud was probably caused by the collapse of a small portion of the eruption column; absence of a flank vent associated with these eruptions argues against it originating as an explosion that has been directed by vent geometry or location. The volcanic blast devasted 7 km2 of the northeast flank of the volcano, and emplaced a deposit of juvenile tephra and accidental lithic and mineral fragments. Decrease in blast deposit thickness and median grain size with increasing distance from the vent suggests that the blast cloud lost transport competence as it crossed the devastated area. Scanning electron microscope examination of pyroclasts from the blast deposit indicates that the blast cloud was a dry, turbulent suspension that emplaced a thin deposit which cooled rapidly after deposition. Lahar deposits were emplaced primarily in Lost Creek, with minor lahars flowing down gullies on the west, northwest and north flanks of the volcano. The initial lahar was apparently triggered early in the eruption when the blast cloud melted the residual snowpack as it moved down the northeast flank of the peak. The event that triggered the later lahars is enigmatic; the presence of approximately five times more juvenile dacite bombs on the surface of the later lahars suggests that they may have been triggered by a change in eruption style or dynamics.  相似文献   

11.
The Quaternary Herchenberg composite tephra cone (East Eifel, FR Germany) with an original bulk volume of 1.17·107 m3 (DRE of 8.2·106 m3) and dimensions of ca. 900·600·90 m (length·width·height) erupted in three main stages: (a) Initial eruptions along a NW-trending, 500-m-long fissure were dominantly Vulcanian in the northwest and Strombolian in the southeast. Removal of the unstable, underlying 20-m-thick Tertiary clays resulted in major collapse and repeated lateral caving of the crater. The northwestern Lower Cone 1 (LC1) was constructed by alternating Vulcanian and Strombolian eruptions. (b) Cone-building, mainly Strombolian eruptions resulted in two major scoria cones beginning initially in the northwest (Cone 1) and terminating in the southeast (Cones 2 and 3) following a period of simultaneous activity of cones 1 and 2. Lapilli deposits are subdivided by thin phreatomagmatic marker beds rich in Tertiary clays in the early stages and Devonian clasts in the later stages. Three dikes intruded radially into the flanks of cone 1. (c) The eruption and deposition of fine-grained uppermost layers (phreatomagmatic tuffs, accretionary lapilli, and Strombolian fallout lapilli) presumably from the northwestern center (cone 1) terminated the activity of Herchenberg volcano. The Herchenberg volcano is distinguished from most Strombolian scoria cones in the Eifel by (1) small volume of agglutinates in central craters, (2) scarcity of scoria bomb breccias, (3) well-bedded tephra deposits even in the proximal facies, (4) moderate fragmentation of tephra (small proportions of both ash and coarse lapilli/bomb-size fraction), (5) abundance of dense ellipsoidal juvenile lapilli, and (6) characteristic depositional cycles in the early eruptive stages beginning with laterally emplaced, fine-grained, xenolith-rich tephra and ending with fallout scoria lapilli. Herchenberg tephra is distinguished from maar deposits by (1) paucity of xenoliths, (2) higher depositional temperatures, (3) coarser grain size and thicker bedding, (4) absence of glassy quenched clasts except in the initial stages and late phreatomagmatic marker beds, and (5) predominance of Strombolian, cone-building activity. The characteristics of Herchenberg deposits are interpreted as due to a high proportion of magmatic volatiles (dominantly CO2) relative to low-viscosity magma during most of the eruptive activity.  相似文献   

12.
Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.  相似文献   

13.
A simple semi-analytical model for ash-fall deposit was applied to reconstruct the tephra deposits of the sub-Plinian 472 AD eruption of Vesuvius, Italy, which is of the scale of the reference eruptive scenario for the emergency planning, at Vesuvius. Applying a novel least-squares method, the bulk grain-size distribution, the total mass, and the eruption column height were obtained by fitting the computed ground load and granulometries with the observed ones. The analysis of the effect of three different weighting factors in the minimization procedure was also performed. Results showed that the statistical weighting factor produced the minimum bias. The best correlation between calculated and measured deposit was found, even though the quantity of the input data was not very high, as it commonly occurs for several ancient eruptions. Model results were also in agreement with estimations provided by other independent methods.  相似文献   

14.
Until now, the widely used predictive long-term hazard models of the most intense natural phenomena do not yield predictions other than the mean return period. To achieve less uncertain estimates, an alternative model is proposed. The analysis of the eruptions of Etna from 1868 to 1993 shows that the time interval Dt between consecutive large eruptions is clearly random, whereas the total volume of tephra ejected during Dt is roughly constant. Taking into account the above evidence, the model yields significant long-term forecasts both of the time and of the intensity of future large eruptions. The large volume of tephra ejected by the volcano since the last intense eruption in 1980 allows the model to estimate that the next large eruption will not to take place soon.  相似文献   

15.
Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.  相似文献   

16.
Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.  相似文献   

17.
Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt  相似文献   

18.
Field, geochronologic, and geochemical evidence from proximal fine-grained tephras, and from limited exposures of Holocene lava flows and a small pyroclastic flow document ten–12 eruptions of Mount Rainier over the last 2,600 years, contrasting with previously published evidence for only 11–12 eruptions of the volcano for all of the Holocene. Except for the pumiceous subplinian C event of 2,200 cal year BP, the late-Holocene eruptions were weakly explosive, involving lava effusions and at least two block-and-ash pyroclastic flows. Eruptions were clustered from ∼2,600 to ∼2,200 cal year BP, an interval referred to as the Summerland eruptive period that includes the youngest lava effusion from the volcano. Thin, fine-grained tephras are the only known primary volcanic products from eruptions near 1,500 and 1,000 cal year BP, but these and earlier eruptions were penecontemporaneous with far-traveled lahars, probably created from newly erupted materials melting snow and glacial ice. The most recent magmatic eruption of Mount Rainier, documented geochemically, was the 1,000 cal year BP event. Products from a proposed eruption of Mount Rainier between AD 1820 and 1854 (X tephra of Mullineaux (US Geol Surv Bull 1326:1–83, 1974)) are redeposited C tephra, probably transported onto young moraines by snow avalanches, and do not record a nineteenth century eruption. We found no conclusive evidence for an eruption associated with the clay-rich Electron Mudflow of ∼500 cal year BP, and though rare, non-eruptive collapse of unstable edifice flanks remains as a potential hazard from Mount Rainier. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. T. W. Sisson and J. W. Vallance contributed equally to this study.  相似文献   

19.
In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert  相似文献   

20.
We present precise geodetic and satellite observation-based estimations of the erupted volume and discharge rate of magma during the 2011 eruptions of Kirishima-Shinmoe-dake volcano, Japan. During these events, the type and intensity of eruption drastically changed within a week, with three major sub-Plinian eruptions on January 26 and 27, and a continuous lava extrusion from January 29 to 31. In response to each eruptive event, borehole-type tiltmeters detected deflation of a magma chamber caused by migration of magma to the surface. These measurements enabled us to estimate the geodetic volume change in the magma chamber caused by each eruptive event. Erupted volumes and discharge rates were constrained during lava extrusion using synthetic aperture radar satellite imaging of lava accumulation inside the summit crater. Combining the geodetic volume change and the volume of lava extrusion enabled the determination of the erupted volume and discharge rate during each sub-Plinian event. These precise estimates provide important information about magma storage conditions in magma chambers and eruption column dynamics, and indicate that the Shinmoe-dake eruptions occurred in a critical state between explosive and effusive eruption.  相似文献   

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