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1.
Climate sensitivity to tropical land surface changes with coupled versus prescribed SSTs 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tropical land cover change experiments with fixed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and with an interactive ocean are compared
to assess the relevance of including the ocean system in sensitivity studies to land surface conditions. The results show
that the local response to deforestation is similar with fixed and simulated SSTs. Over Amazonia, all experiments simulate
a comparable decrease in precipitation and no change in moisture convergence, implying that there is only a change in local
water recycling. Over Africa, the impact on precipitation is not identical for all experiments; however, the signal is smaller
than over Amazonia and simulations of more than 50 years would be necessary to statistically discriminate the precipitation
change. We observe small but significant changes in SSTs in the coupled simulation in the tropical oceans surrounding the
deforested regions. Impacts on mid and high latitudes SSTs are also possible. As remote impacts to deforestation are weak,
it has not been possible to establish possible oceanic feedbacks to the atmosphere. Overall, this study indicates that the
oceanic feedback to land surface sensitivity studies is of second importance, and that the inclusion of the oceanic system
will require ensembles of long climate simulations to properly take into account the low frequency variability of the ocean. 相似文献
2.
A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center （NCC）, China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year （2001 to 2004） prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process paraxneterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme （MFS） and Betts-Miller scheme （BM） for convective precipitation, the LPMI （land surface process model I） and LPMII （land surface process model Ⅱ） for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE （turbulent kinetic energy） scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 （RegCM_NCC） has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions. 相似文献
3.
DING Yihui SHI Xueli LIU Yiming LIU Yan LI Qingquan QIAN Yongfu MIAO Manqian ZHAI Guoqing GAO Kun 《大气科学进展》2006,23(3)
A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions. 相似文献
4.
Large-scale conversion of tropical forests into pastures or annual crops will likely lead to changes in the local microclimate of those regions. Larger diurnal fluctuations of surface temperature and humidity deficit, increased surface runoff during rainy periods and decreased runoff during the dry season, and decreased soil moistrue are to be expected.It is likely that evapotranspiration will be reduced because of less available radiative energy at the canopy level since grass presents a higher albedo than forests, also because of the reduced availability of soil moisture at the rooting zone primarily during the dry season. Recent results from general circulation model (GCM) simulations of Amazonian deforestation seem to suggest that the equilibrium climate for a grassy vegetation in Amazonia would be one in which regional precipitation would be significantly reduced.Global climate changes probably will occur if there is a marked change in rainfall patterns in tropical forest regions as a result of deforestation. Besides that, biomass burning of tropical forests is likely adding CO2 into the atmosphere, thus contributing to the enhanced greenhouse warming. 相似文献
5.
6.
Global Climate Change and Tropical Forest Genetic Resources 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Global climate change may have a serious impact on genetic resources in tropical forest trees. Genetic diversity plays a critical role in the survival of populations in rapidly changing environments. Furthermore, most tropical plant species are known to have unique ecological niches, and therefore changes in climate may directly affect the distribution of biomes, ecosystems, and constituent species. Climate change may also indirectly affect plant genetic resources through effects on phenology, breeding systems, and plant-pollinator and plant seed disperser interactions, and may reduce genetic diversity and reproductive output. As a consequence, population densities may be reduced leading to reduction in genetic diversity through genetic drift and inbreeding. Tropical forest plants may respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, adaptive evolution, migration to suitable site, or extinction. However, the potential to respond is limited by a rapid pace of change and the non-availability of alternate habitats due to past and present trends of deforestation. Thus climate change may result in extinction of many populations and species. Our ability to estimate the precise response of tropical forest ecosystems to climate change is limited by lack of long-term data on parameters that might be affected by climate change. Collection of correlative data from long-term monitoring of climate as well as population and community responses at selected sites offer the most cost-effective way to understand the effects of climate change on tropical tree populations. However, mitigation strategies need to be implemented immediately. Because many effects of climate change may be similar to the effects of habitat alteration and fragmentation, protected areas and buffer zones should be enlarged, with an emphasis on connectivity among conserved landscapes. Taxa that are likely to become extinct should be identified and protected through ex situ conservation programs. 相似文献
7.
城市冠层过程的研究与进展 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
介绍了城市冠层过程研究的概况和历史,概括了城市冠层的特征及其作用于局地气候和中尺度系统的主要方式,总结了城市冠层参数化方案或模式的研究进展.比较了几种参数化方法和模式的特点,提出目前存在的一些问题.认为：现有的参数化方案和模式尚未能完整体现城市下垫面特征、准确反映人类活动影响,二者的发展有赖于对城市下垫面建筑特征更合理、细致地描述,对人为热量、水汽影响更准确的估计与刻划.与局地因素密切相关的城市冠层模式还需要更多地在模式中引入局地差异影响.同时指出,要提高耦合城市过程的中尺度模式预报水平,需要相应改进包括云、降水、次网格地形及边界层动力学等的参数化. 相似文献
8.
Karen L. O'Brien 《Climatic change》2000,44(3):311-329
This article examines the implications of upscaling tropical deforestation for climate change. In this case, upscaling refers to the extrapolation and aggregation of deforestation to the grid scale that is used in global climate models (GCMs). The upscaling of deforestation emphasizes the extent of forest loss, and assumes that deforestation is a homogeneous and instantaneous process. The structure of deforested landscapes is usually disregarded in "upscaled" experiments, and the intensity of deforestation is seldom considered. Consequently, the atmospheric response to a heterogeneous surface is not addressed. Furthermore, climatically significant soil and vegetation parameters associated with complex and dynamic deforested landscapes are ignored. These factors underscore the need for more realistic representation of tropical deforestation in modeling studies. Several recent attempts to address the issue of scale in deforestation studies are described in the article. 相似文献
9.
F. A. Bazzaz 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):317-336
Tropical forest ecosystems are large stores of carbon which supply millions of people with life support requirements. Currently tropical forests are undergoing massive deforestation. Here, I address the possible impact of global change conditions, including elevated CO2, temperature rise, and nitrogen deposition on forest structure and dynamics. Tropical forests may be particularly susceptible to climate change for the following reasons: (1) Phenological events (such as flowering and fruiting) are highly tuned to climatic conditions. Thus a small change in climate can have a major impact on the forest, its biological diversity and its role in the carbon cycle. (2) There are strong coevolutionary interactions, such as pollination seed dispersal, with a high degree of specialization, i.e., only certain animals can effect these activities for certain species. Global change can decouple these tight coevolutionary interactions. (3) Because of high species diversity per unit area, species of the tropical rain forest must have narrow niches. Thus changes in global climate can eliminate species and therefore reduce biological diversity. (4) Deforestation and other forms of disturbance may have significant feedback on hydrology both regionally and globally. The predicted decline in the rainfall in the Amazon Basin and the intensification of the Indian monsoon can have a large effect on water availability and floods which are already devastating low-lying areas. It is concluded that tropical forests may be very sensitive to climate change. Under climatic change conditions their structure and function may greatly change, their integrity may be violated and their services to people may be greatly modified. Because they are large stores of great biological diversity, they require immediate study before it is too late. The study requires the collaboration of scientists with a wide range of backgrounds and experiences including biologists, climate modellers, atmospheric scientists, economists, human demographers and sociologists in order to carry out holistic and urgently needed work. Global climatic change brings a great challenge to science and to policy makers. 相似文献
10.
M. E. S. Silva S. H. Franchito V. Brahmananda Rao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,85(1-2):1-18
Summary A coupled biosphere-atmosphere statistical-dynamical model (SDM) is used to study the climatic effects of Amazonian deforestation.
A soil moisture model based on BATS has been incorporated into the SDM in order to study the biogeophysical feedback of change
in surface characteristics to regional climate due to the deforestation. In the control experiment, the mean annual and mean
seasonal climate is well simulated by the model when compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In the deforestation experiment,
the evergreen broadleaf trees in the Amazonian region are substituted by short grass. The effects of Amazonian deforestation
on regional climate are analysed taking into account the model simulations for the land portion of the latitude belts comprising
the tropical region. Amazonian deforestation results in regional climate changes such as a decrease in evaporation, precipitation,
available surface net radiation and soil moisture content, and an increase in temperatures and sensible heat flux. The reduction
in transpiration was responsible for the most part of the decrease in total evapotranspiration. The reduction in precipitation
was larger than the decrease in evapotranspiration so that runoff was reduced. The simulation of the diurnal cycle of the
surface temperature shows an increase in temperature during the day and a decrease at night, which is in agreement with observations,
whereas earlier GCM experiments showed an increase both during the day and night. In general, the changes in temperature and
energy fluxes are in good agreement with GCM experiments, showing that the SDM is able to simulate the characteristics of
the tropical climate that are associated with the substitution of forest by pasture areas. 相似文献
11.
André Lyra Pablo Imbach Daniel Rodriguez Sin Chan Chou Selena Georgiou Lucas Garofolo 《Climatic change》2017,141(1):93-105
Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO2 sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO2 fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America. 相似文献
12.
利用高分辨率的区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC) 对南海夏季风爆发进行模拟研究。研究表明:该模式对积云对流参数化方案的选择十分敏感, 其中以Kuo积云参数化方案为最好, 可以比较成功地模拟出南海夏季风的爆发时间、爆发前后高、低层风场的剧烈变化以及季风与季风雨带的向北推进。然而该方案对于雨量和副热带高压位置的模拟, 与观测相比尚存在一定的偏差, 主要表现为副热带高压位置模拟偏北、偏东; 南海地区的降水量模拟偏少、降水范围偏小。此外, 采用4种参数化方案 (Kuo, Grell, MFS, Betts-Miller) 集成的结果在某种程度上要优于单个方案的结果, 这种改善主要体现在对南海地区季风爆发后降水的模拟上。 相似文献
13.
Possible climatic impacts of land cover transformations,with particular emphasis on tropical deforestation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The climatic impact of albedo changes associated with land-surface alterations has been examined. The total surface global albedo change resulting from major land-cover transformations (i.e. deforestation, desertification, irrigation, dam-building, urbanization) has been recalculated, modifying the estimates of Sagan et al., (1979). Tropical deforestation (11.1 million ha yr-1, or 0.6% yr-1, Lanly, 1982) ranks as a major cause of albedo change, although uncertainties in the areal extent of desertification could conceivably render this latter process of similar significance. The maximum total global albedo change over the last 30 yr for the various processes lies between 0.000 33 and 0.000 64, corresponding to a global temperature decrease of between 0.06 K and 0.09 K (scaled from the 1-D radiative convective model of Hansen et al., 1981), which falls well below the interannual and longer period variability.An upper bound to the impact of tropical deforestation was obtained by concentrating all vegetation change into a single region. The magnitude of this modification is equivalent to 35–50 yr of global deforestation at the current rate, but centered on the Brazilian Amazon. The climatic consequences of such tropical deforestation were simulated, using the GISS GCM (Hansen et al., 1983). In the simulation, a total area of 4.94 × 106 km2 of tropical moist forest was removed and replaced by a grass/crop cover. Although surface albedo increased from 0.11 to 0.19, the effect upon surface temperature was negligible. However, other climate parameters were altered. Rainfall decreased by 0.5–0.7 mm day-1 and both evapotranspiration and total cloud cover were reduced. The absence of a temperature decrease in spite of the increased surface albedo arises because the reduction in evapotranspiration has offset the effects of radiative cooling. The decrease in cloud cover also counteracts the increase in surface albedo. These locally significant changes had no major impact on regional (Hadley or Walker cells) or the global circulation patterns.We conclude that the albedo changes induced by current levels of tropical deforestation appear to have a negligibly small effect on the global climate. 相似文献
14.
Frédéric Hourdin Jean-Yves Grandpeix Catherine Rio Sandrine Bony Arnaud Jam Frédérique Cheruy Nicolas Rochetin Laurent Fairhead Abderrahmane Idelkadi Ionela Musat Jean-Louis Dufresne Alain Lahellec Marie-Pierre Lefebvre Romain Roehrig 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2193-2222
Based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model has been developed that corresponds to a complete recasting of the parameterization of turbulence, convection and clouds. This LMDZ5B version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-Gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by re-evaporation of convective precipitation. The triggering and closure of deep convection are now controlled by lifting processes in the sub-cloud layer. An available lifting energy and lifting power are provided both by the thermal plumes and by the spread of cold pools. The individual parameterizations were carefully validated against the results of explicit high resolution simulations. Here we present the work done to go from those new concepts and developments to a full 3D atmospheric model, used in particular for climate change projections with the IPSL-CM5B coupled model. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments, we document the differences with the previous LMDZ5A version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. Improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3D model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. The variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in LMDZ5B at intraseasonal time-scales. Significant biases of the LMDZ5A model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified. The paper emphasizes the importance of parameterization improvements and model tuning in the frame of climate change studies as well as the new paradigm that represents the improvement of 3D climate models under the control of single-column case studies simulations. 相似文献
15.
This study reports the first assessment of the compounding effects of land-use change and greenhouse gas warming effects on our understanding of projections of future climate. An AGCM simulation of the potential impacts of tropical deforestation and greenhouse warming on climate, employing a version of NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1-Oz), is presented. The joint impacts of tropical deforestation and greenhouse warming are assessed by an experiment in which removal of tropical rainforests is imposed into a greenhouse-warmed climate. Results show that the joint climate changes over tropical rainforest regions comprise large reductions in surface evapotranspiration (by about –180 mm yr–1) andprecipitation (by about –312 mm yr–1) over the Amazon Basin, along with anincrease of surface temperature by +3.0 K. Over Southeast Asia, similar but weaker changes are found in this study. Precipitation is decreased by –172 mmyr–1, together with the surface warming of 2.1 K. Over tropical Africa, changes in regional climate is much weaker and with some different features, such as the increase of precipitation by 25 mm yr–1. Energy budgetanalyses demonstrates that the large increase of surface temperature in the joint experiment is not solely produced by the increase of CO2concentration, but is a joint effect of the reduction of surface evaporation (due to deforestation) and the increase of downward atmospheric longwave radiation (due to the doubling of CO2 concentration). Furthermore, impactsof tropical deforestation on the greenhouse-warmed climate are estimated by comparing a pair of tropical deforestation simulations. It is found that in CCM1-Oz, deforestation has very similar impacts on greenhouse-warmed regional climates as on current climates over tropical rainforest regions. The extra-tropical climatic response to tropical deforestation is identified in both sets of tropical deforestation experiments. Statistically significant responses are seen in the large-scale atmospheric circulation such as changes in the velocity potential and vertically integrated kinetic and potential energy fields. Wave propagation patterns are identified in the large-scale circulation anomalies, which provides a mechanism for interpreting the model responses in the extra-tropics. In addition, this study suggests that land-use change such as tropical deforestation may affect projections of future climate. 相似文献
16.
选取东南亚中南半岛地区作为模拟区域，基于高分辨率的遥感观测森林变化数据和WRF数值模式，设计毁林前后的两种情景对旱季气候进行模拟，评估NoahMP、CLM和Noah mosaic三种陆面过程方案对热带毁林增温响应的模拟能力。结果表明，CLM方案在模拟历史气温中有着更好的表现，Noah mosaic方案的结果存在明显低估。然而，对比毁林前后两种情景的模拟结果，本文发现，只有采用了"次格网"方式的Noah mosaic方案较好地模拟出毁林增温响应特征。在格网尺度采用"主导类型"计算方式的NoahMP方案没有合理地呈现出森林损失对区域气候的影响。理论上，CLM模式在计算中同时考虑格网内所有植被类型，然而本文发现CLM方案在主导类型不变的格网对森林损失比例不敏感，而且对毁林反馈的模拟结果与NoahMP方案的结果更接近。据此推测，在WRF模式耦合CLM方案的过程中，格网内参数处理方式可能产生了错误，实际采用的是"主导类型"方式。在模拟土地覆盖类型变化对气候的影响时，本文推荐使用Noah mosaic方案。同时，建议在未来版本的WRF模型中修正目前耦合的CLM方案关于次格网方法的处理方式，提供更合理的水热通量模拟。 相似文献
17.
陆面过程模式CoLM和NCAR_CLM3.0对中国典型森林生态系统陆气相互作用的模拟 II.不同参数化方案对模拟结果的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本研究针对CoLM、CLM3.0模拟结果的差异,就二者采用的不同参数化方案进行了比较分析,认为导致模式模拟结果差异的主要原因在于二者对植被覆盖度、冠层水、热、辐射传输以及光合作用和气孔导度等物理过程的处理有所不同,而CoLM模式对这些过程的处理更吻合实际.将CoLM的相关方案移植到CLM3.0进行的一系列数值试验表明,新方案的引入能够明显改善CLM3.0的模拟效果.此外,两个模式还存在一些共性的问题,例如不同的优化与叶面和冠层空气潜热传导率以及与土壤水文等过程有关的参数化方案,可能是导致模式结果在某些情况下存在偏差的主要原因. 相似文献
18.
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19.
Sergio H. Franchito V. Brahmananda Rao J. Pablo R. Fernandez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):73-79
This study investigates the impact of global warming on the savannization of the tropical land region and also examines the relative roles of the impact of the increase of greenhouse gas concentration and future changes in land cover on the tropical climate. For this purpose, a mechanistic–statistical–dynamical climate model with a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate is used. The results showed that climate change due to deforestation is more than that due to greenhouse gases in the tropical region. The warming due to deforestation corresponds to around 60% of the warming in the tropical region when the increase of CO2 concentration is included together. However, the global warming due to deforestation is negligible. On the other hand, with the increase of CO2 concentration projected for 2100, there is a lower decrease of evapotranspiration, precipitation and net surface radiation in the tropical region compared with the case with only deforestation. Differently from the case with only deforestation, the effect of the changes in the net surface radiation overcomes that due to the evapotranspiration, so that the warming in the tropical land region is increased. The impact of the increase of CO2 concentration on a deforestation scenario is to increase the reduction of the areas covered by tropical forest (and a corresponding increase in the areas covered by savanna) which may reach 7.5% in future compared with the present climate. Compared with the case with only deforestation, drying may increase by 66.7%. This corroborates with the hypothesis that the process of savannization of the tropical forest can be accelerated in future due to global warming. 相似文献
20.
Tropical monsoon circulations exhibit substantial interannual variability. Establishing clear links between this variability and the slowly varying boundary forcing (sea surface temperatures, SSTs, and land surface conditions) has proved difficult. For example, no clear relationships have been found between SST anomalies associated with El Nino/La Nina events and monsoon rainfall. Despite much research over the past 50 years, there are still questions regarding how different components of the land-atmosphere-ocean system contribute to tropical monsoon variability. This study examines the question of land-surface-atmosphere interactions in large-scale tropical convection and their role in rainfall interannual variability. The analysis method is based on a conceptual model of convection energetics applied every day of the simulation at the grid points within the region of interest. This allows for a distinction between the frequency and the characteristic energy and water cycle of these events. With two ensembles of five and three experiments in which different land-surface schemes are used, the relation between land-surface processes and variation of the frequency of convection is studied. It has been found in this modeling study that the formulation of land surface schemes may be important for both the simulation of mean tropical precipitation and its interannual variability by way of the frequency of convective events. Linked to this is an increased response of hydrological cycle over land to SSTAs. Numerous studies have suggested that large-scale factors, such as SST, are the dominant control. However the influence of surface processes depends on the areal extent and distance that separates the region from the ocean. The fact that differences between tropical regions decreases as convection intensifies strengthens this hypothesis. The conclusion is that it is inappropriate to separate the causes of interannual variability between SSTAs and land-surface anomalies to explain precipitation variations as land surface processes play a significant mediating role in the relationship between SSTs and monsoon strength. However there remains the possibility that a substantial portion of variability is due to dynamical processes internal to the atmosphere. Determining the relative roles of internal and lower boundary forcing processes in producing interannual variations in the tropical climate is a major objective of future research. 相似文献