共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 29 毫秒
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This work uses a one-dimensional, depth averaged model to compute the massbalance of a mixed flowing/powder snow avalanche. This model is comprisedof three basic components: the dense flowing avalanche, the powder cloud anda turbulent wake. The dynamics of a mixed avalanche is strongly dependent onthe interaction between the components and also on the snow cover and ambientair, in particular the exchange or entrainment of snow and air mass. Therefore, animportant first step for modelling mixed avalanches is a basic understanding of thenature of these mass exchanges. In this paper, the governing equations of mass,momentum and turbulent energy are briefly presented. Numerical simulations wererun for three avalanche tracks – Aulta, Galtür and Vallée de la Sionne – for whichdata from real snow avalanche events exist. Based on the results, conclusions weredrawn regarding the parameterisation of the mass exchanges. The mass balances forthese three contrasting avalanches are presented. 相似文献
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F. Sivardière T. Castelle G. Guyomarc'h L. Mérindol L. Buisson 《Surveys in Geophysics》1995,16(5-6):729-741
For two years, three French and Swiss laboratories have been making field observations and measurements on two high altitude slopes in a Northern French Alps site. The aim of this work is to study the functioning of the avalanche sites which, in their starting zones, undergo snow-transport by wind. The experimental site is located in the French Alps, at 2,800 m, above Grenoble. It is an open area, equipped with an automatic meteorological station and an altitude laboratory. The two slopes that are studied face East. One of them is artificially released but the other has a natural avalanche activity. The investigations concern: -snow deposition in avalanche starting zones; -temporal evolution of the snowpack characteristics; -avalanche release. For the field observations and measurements, continuous recording of the meteorological conditions on the site, photogrammetrical techniques and two snow depth profiles, as well as stratigraphical snow profiles and video are used. The computer modeling is based on existing computer models developed by the CEMAGREF-Nivologie (ELSA) and the CEN/Météo-France (SAFRAN-CROCUS-MEPRA), which analyse the snowpack and its stability. The field observations and measurements aim at improving snow-transport by wind modeling modules, in order to improve their whole analysis. 相似文献
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V. PEREYRA 《Geophysical Prospecting》1992,40(3):267-287
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Christian Jaedicke 《Surveys in Geophysics》2003,24(5-6):431-445
Ground penetrating radar (GPR) systems can be used in many applications of snow and ice research. The information from the GPR is used to identify and interpret layers, objects and different structures in the snow. A commercially available GPR system was further developed to work in the rough environment of snow and ice. The applied GPR is a 900 MHz system that easily reaches snow depths of up to 10 meters. The system was calibrated in the course of several manual snow depth measurements during each survey. The depth resolution depends on the snow type and is around ±0.1 m. The GPR system is carried alongside a line of interest and is triggered by an odometer wheel at regular adjustable steps. All equipment is mounted in a sledge and is pulled by a snowmobile over the snow surface. This setup allows for an efficient coverage of several kilometers of terrain profiles. The radar profiles give a real time two-dimensional impression of structures and objects and the interface between snow and the underlying ground. The actual radar profile is shown on a screen on the sledge allowing the immediate marking of objects and structures. During the past three years the instrument was successfully used for the study of snow distributions, for the detection of glacier crevasses under the snow cover, and for the search of avalanche victims in avalanche debris. The results show the capability of the instrument to detect persons and objects in the snow cover. In the future, this device may be a new tool for avalanche rescue operations. Today, the size and weight of the system prevents the accessing of very steep slopes and areas not accessible to snowmobiles. Further developments will decrease the size of the system and make it a valuable tool to quantify snow masses in avalanche release zones and run-out areas. 相似文献
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G. A. Isaac P. I. Joe J. Mailhot M. Bailey S. Bélair F. S. Boudala M. Brugman E. Campos R. L. Carpenter Jr. R. W. Crawford S. G. Cober B. Denis C. Doyle H. D. Reeves I. Gultepe T. Haiden I. Heckman L. X. Huang J. A. Milbrandt R. Mo R. M. Rasmussen T. Smith R. E. Stewart D. Wang L. J. Wilson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(1-2):1-24
A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather. 相似文献
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J. Mailhot J. A. Milbrandt A. Giguère R. McTaggart-Cowan A. Erfani B. Denis A. Glazer M. Vallée 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(1-2):209-229
Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM–LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow. 相似文献
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Graham A. Sexstone Jessica M. Driscoll Lauren E. Hay John C. Hammond Theodore B. Barnhart 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2365-2380
The spatial variability of snow water equivalent (SWE) can exert a strong influence on the timing and magnitude of snowmelt delivery to a watershed. Therefore, the representation of sub-grid or sub-watershed snow variability in hydrologic models is important for accurately simulating snowmelt dynamics and runoff response. The U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model infrastructure with the precipitation-runoff modelling system (NHM-PRMS) represents the sub-grid variability of SWE with snow depletion curves (SDCs), which relate snow-covered area to watershed-mean SWE during the snowmelt period. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated runoff to SDC representation within the NHM-PRMS across the continental United States (CONUS). SDCs for the model experiment were derived assuming a range of SWE coefficient of variation values and a lognormal probability distribution function. The NHM-PRMS was simulated at a daily time step for each SDC over a 14-year period. Results highlight that increasing the sub-grid snow variability (by changing the SDC) resulted in a consistently slower snowmelt rate and longer snowmelt duration when averaged across the hydrologic response unit scale. Simulated runoff was also found to be sensitive to SDC representation, as decreases in simulated snowmelt rate by 1 mm day−1 resulted in decreases in runoff ratio by 1.8% on average in snow-dominated regions of the CONUS. Simulated decreases in runoff associated with slower snowmelt rates were approximately inversely proportional to increases in simulated evapotranspiration. High snow persistence and peak SWE:annual precipitation combined with a water-limited dryness index was associated with the greatest runoff sensitivity to changing snowmelt. Results from this study highlight the importance of carefully parameterizing SDCs for hydrologic modelling. Furthermore, improving model representation of snowmelt input variability and its relation to runoff generation processes is shown to be an important consideration for future modelling applications. 相似文献
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Albert Rango 《水文研究》1993,7(2):121-138
In the last 20 years remote sensing research has led to significant progress in monitoring and measuring certain snow hydrology processes. Snow distribution in a drainage basin can be adequately assessed by visible sensors. Although there are still some interpretation problems, the NOAA-AVHRR sensor can provide frequent views of the areal snow cover in a basin, and snow cover maps are produced operationally by the National Weather Service on about 3000 drainage basins in North America. Measurement of snow accumulation or snow water equivalent with microwave remote sensing has great potential because of the capabilities for depth penetration, all-weather observation and night-time viewing. Several critical areas of research remain, namely, the acquisition of snow grain size information for input to microwave models and improvement in passive microwave resolution from space. Methods that combine both airborne gamma ray and visible satellite remote sensing of the snowpack with field measurements also hold promise for determining areal snow water equivalent. Some remote sensing techniques can also be used to detect different stages of snow metamorphism. Various aspects of snowpack ripening can be detected using microwave and thermal infra-red capabilities. The capabilities for measurement of snow albedo and surface temperature have direct application in both snow metamorphism and snowpack energy balance studies. The potentially most profitable research area here is the study of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function to improve snow albedo measurements. Most of the remote sensing capabilities in snow hydrology have been developed for improving snowmelt-run-off forecasting. Most applications have used the input of snow cover extent to deterministic models, both of the degree day and energy balance types. Snowmelt-run-off forecasts using satellite derived snow cover depletion curves and the models have been successfully made. As the extraction of additional snow cover characteristics becomes possible, remote sensing will have an even greater impact on snow hydrology. Important remote sensing capabilities will become available in the next 20 years through space platform observing systems that will improve our capability to observe the snowpack on an operational basis. 相似文献
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Danny McCarroll 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1993,18(6):527-539
Where snow avalanches descend steeply into large rivers, displacing bedload, avalanche boulder-ramparts may accumulate, retaining a record of late-Holocene snow-avalanche frequency. The age frequency of surface boulders on 12 such features in upper Jostedalen, southern Norway, was investigated using the size-frequency distribution of lichens. A model was constructed to simulate the influence of variations in avalanche frequency since AD 1325 on lichen-size-frequency distributions. Using this modelling approach it is not possible to define a unique pattern of avalanche activity to account for the observed lichen-size-frequency distributions, but it is possible to place strict limits on the range of scenarios that are acceptable. The results suggest that maximum avalanche activity occurred during the 19th century, after the peak of the Little Ice Age. This conflicts with historical records of avalanche damage to property at lower altitude in nearby valleys, which may reflect avalanche activity only during a short period of extreme climatic conditions. Close agreement between the records of snow avalanches and debris flows suggests that both reflect periods of high winter snowfall and rapid spring melting rather than low temperature. Future ‘greenhouse warming’ may therefore result in increased avalanche activity in southern Norway. 相似文献
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Snow distribution patterns are still poorly understood in steep alpine catchments because of mass redistribution from wind and avalanching. Snow models rarely operate with sufficient resolution, physics or input data to resolve this issue explicitly, and existing sub-grid parameterisations are rarely tested in this type of terrain. To address this issue daily snow cover observations, obtained from a ground-based camera, are combined with a snow melt model to estimate the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in a mountainous alpine catchment. Results show the importance of slope in controlling the spatial distribution of SWE and snow duration. This distribution is linked to the physical process of gravitational transport, where there is removal of snow from steep slopes and preferential deposition on moderate-angle slopes. From a modelling perspective, if sub-grid snow variability is parameterised using a log-normal probability distribution (as is common in hydrological and land-use models) then ignoring steep/shallow slope differences leads to an overestimation of melt at the beginning of the melt season, and a premature end to the snow melt season. When modelling SWE in complex terrain, care should be taken to consider reduced SWE on steep slopes. 相似文献
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Urban winter hydrology has garnered very little attention owing to the general notion that high‐intensity rainfalls are the major flood‐generating events in urban areas. As a result, few efforts have been made to research urban snow and its melt characteristics. This study investigates the characteristics of urban snow that differentiate it from rural snow, and makes recommendations for incorporating these characteristics into an urban snowmelt model. A field study was conducted from the fall of 2001 to the spring of 2002 in the city of Calgary, Canada. Snow depths and densities, soil moisture, soil temperature, snow albedo, net radiation, snow evaporation, and surface temperature were measured at several locations throughout the winter period. The combination of urban snow removal practices and the physical elements that exist in urban areas were found to influence the energy balance of the snowpack profoundly. Shortwave radiation was found to be the main source of energy for urban snow; as a consequence, the albedo of urban snow is a very important factor in urban snowmelt modelling. General observations lead to the classification of snow as one of four types: snow piles, snow on road shoulders, snow on sidewalk edges, and snow in open areas. This resulted in the development of four separate functions for the changing snow albedo values. A study of the frozen ground conditions revealed that antecedent soil moisture conditions had very little impact on frozen ground, and thus frozen ground very nearly always acts as a near impervious area. Improved flood forecasting for urban catchments in cold regions can only be achieved with accurate modelling of urban winter runoff that involves the energy balance method, incorporating snow redistribution and urban snow‐cover characteristics, and using small time steps. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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INTRODUCTIONKnowledgerepresentationandknowledgeacquisitionarekeyissuesinbuildinganexpertsystem .Theyarecloselyrelatedtothedomainproblem solvinglevelandcompetenceoftheexpertsystem .Intheknowledgeacquisitionprocess,thedomainexpertwillfirstofferandorganizepr… 相似文献
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It is well known that snow plays an important role in land surface energy balance; however, modelling the subgrid variability of snow is still a challenge in large‐scale hydrological and land surface models. High‐resolution snow depth data and statistical methods can reveal some characteristics of the subgrid variability of snow depth, which can be useful in developing models for representing such subgrid variability. In this study, snow depth was measured by airborne Lidar at 0.5‐m resolution over two mountainous areas in south‐western Wyoming, Snowy Range and Laramie Range. To characterize subgrid snow depth spatial distribution, measured snow depth data of these two areas were meshed into 284 grids of 1‐km × 1‐km. Also, nine representative grids of 1‐km × 1‐km were selected for detailed analyses on the geostatistical structure and probability density function of snow depth. It was verified that land cover is one of the important factors controlling spatial variability of snow depth at the 1‐km scale. Probability density functions of snow depth tend to be Gaussian distributions in the forest areas. However, they are eventually skewed as non‐Gaussian distribution, largely due to the no‐snow areas effect, mainly caused by snow redistribution and snow melt. Our findings show the characteristics of subgrid variability of snow depth and clarify the potential factors that need to be considered in modelling subgrid variability of snow depth. 相似文献
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An increase of the spatial and temporal resolution of snowpack measurements in Alpine or Arctic regions will improve the predictability of flood and avalanche hazards and increase the spatial validity of snowpack simulation models. In the winter season 2009, we installed a ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) system beneath the snowpack to measure snowpack conditions above the antennas. In comparison with modulated frequency systems, GPR systems consist of a much simpler technology, are commercially available and therefore are cheaper. The radar observed the temporal alternation of the snow height over more than 2·5 months. The presented data showed that with moved antennas, it is possible to record the snow height with an uncertainty of less than 8% in comparison with the probed snow depth. Three persistent melt crusts, which formed at the snow surface and were buried by further new snow events, were used as reflecting tracers to follow the snow cover evolution and to determine the strain rates of underlaying layers between adjacent measurements. The height in two‐way travel time of each layer changed over time, which is a cumulative effect of settlement and variation of wave speed in response to densification and liquid water content. The infiltration of liquid water with depth during melt processes was clearly observed during one event. All recorded reflections appeared in concordance with the physical principles (e.g. in phase structure), and one can assume that distinct density steps above a certain threshold result in reflections in the radargram. The accuracy of the used impulse radar system in determining the snow water equivalent is in good agreement with previous studies, which used continuous wave radar systems. The results of this pilot study encourage further investigations with radar measurements using the described test arrangement on a daily basis for continuous destruction‐free monitoring of the snow cover. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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General circulation models (GCMs), or stand‐alone models that are forced by the output from GCMs, are increasingly being used to simulate the interactions between snow cover, snowmelt, climate and water resources. The variation in snowpack extent, and hence albedo, through time in a cell is likely to be substantial, especially in mid‐latitude mountainous regions. As a consequence, the energy budget simulation by a GCM relies on a realistic representation of snowpack extent. Similarly, from a water resource perspective, the spatial extent of the pack is key in predicting meltwater discharges into rivers. In this paper a simple computationally efficient regional snow model has been developed, which is based on a degree‐day approach and simulates the fraction of the model domain covered by snow, the spatially averaged melt rate and the mean snowpack depth. Computational efficiency is achieved through a novel spatial averaging procedure, which relies on the assumptions that precipitation and temperature scale linearly with elevation and that the distribution of elevations in the domain can be modelled by a continuous function. The resulting spatially averaged model is compared with both observations of the duration of snow cover throughout Austria and with results from a distributed model based on the same underlying assumptions but applied at a fine spatial resolution. The new spatially averaged model successfully simulated the seasonal snow duration observations and reproduced the daily dynamics of snow cover extent, the spatially averaged melt rate and mean pack depth simulated by the distributed model. It, therefore, offers a computationally efficient and easily applied alternative to the current crop of regional snow models. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Jürg Schweizer Martin Schneebeli Charles Fierz Paul M. B. Föhn 《Surveys in Geophysics》1995,16(5-6):621-633
Knowledge about snow mechanics and snow avalanche formation forms the basis of any hazard mitigation measures. The crucial point is the snow stability. The most relevant mechanical properties - the compressive, tensile and shear strength of the individual snow layers within the snow cover - vary substantially in space and time. Among other things the strength of the snow layers depends strongly on the state of stress and the strain rate. The evaluation of the stability of the snow cover is hence a difficult task involving many extrapolations.To gain insight in the release mechanism of slab avalanches triggered by skiers, the skier's impact is measured with a load cell at different depths within the snow cover and for different snow conditions. The study focused on the effects of the dynamic loading and of the damping by snow compaction. In accordance with earlier finite-element (FE) calculations the results show the importance of the depth of the weak layer or interface and the snow conditions, especially the sublayering.In order to directly measure the impact force and to study the snow properties in more detail, a new instrument, called rammrutsch was developed. It combines the properties of the rutschblock with the defined impact properties of the rammsonde. The mechanical properties are determined using (i) the impact energy of the rammrutsch and (ii) the deformations of the snow cover measured with accelerometers and digital image processing of video sequences. The new method is well suited to detect and to measure the mechanical processes and properties of the fracturing layers. The duration of one test is around 10 minutes and the method seems appropriate for determining the spatial variability of the snow cover. A series of experiments in a forest opening showed a clear difference in the snow stability between sites below trees and ones in the free field of the opening. 相似文献
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An evaluation of approaches for modelling hydrological processes in high‐elevation,glacierized Andean watersheds 
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下载免费PDF全文 We use two hydrological models of varying complexity to study the Juncal River Basin in the Central Andes of Chile with the aim to understand the degree of conceptualization and the spatial structure that are needed to model present and future streamflows. We use a conceptual semi‐distributed model based on elevation bands [Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)], frequently used for water management, and a physically oriented, fully distributed model [Topographic Kinematic Wave Approximation and Integration ETH Zurich (TOPKAPI‐ETH)] developed for research purposes mainly. We evaluate the ability of the two models to reproduce the key hydrological processes in the basin with emphasis on snow accumulation and melt, streamflow and the relationships between internal processes. Both models are capable of reproducing observed runoff and the evolution of Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover adequately. In spite of WEAP's simple and conceptual approach for modelling snowmelt and its lack of glacier representation and snow gravitational redistribution as well as a proper routing algorithm, this model can reproduce historical data with a similar goodness of fit as the more complex TOPKAPI‐ETH. We show that the performance of both models can be improved by using measured precipitation gradients of higher temporal resolution. In contrast to the good performance of the conceptual model for the present climate, however, we demonstrate that the simplifications in WEAP lead to error compensation, which results in different predictions in simulated melt and runoff for a potentially warmer future climate. TOPKAPI‐ETH, using a more physical representation of processes, depends less on calibration and thus is less subject to a compensation of errors through different model components. Our results show that data obtained locally in ad hoc short‐term field campaigns are needed to complement data extrapolated from long‐term records for simulating changes in the water cycle of high‐elevation catchments but that these data can only be efficiently used by a model applying a spatially distributed physical representation of hydrological processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Bayesian stochastic modelling for avalanche predetermination: from a general system framework to return period computations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
N. Eckert E. Parent M. Naaim D. Richard 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(2):185-206
Stochastic models are recent but unavoidable tools for snow avalanche hazard mapping that can be described in a general system
framework. For the computation of design return periods, magnitude and frequency have to be evaluated. The magnitude model
consists of a set of physical equations for avalanche propagation associated with a statistical formalism adapted to the input–output
data structure. The friction law includes at least one latent friction coefficient. The Bayesian paradigm and the associated
simulation techniques assist considerably in performing the inference and taking estimation errors into account for prediction.
Starting from the general case, simplifying hypotheses allows computing the predictive distribution of high return periods
on a case-study. Only release and runout altitudes are considered so that the model can use the French database. An inversible
propagation model makes it possible to work with the latent friction coefficient as if it is observed. Prior knowledge is
borrowed from an avalanche path with similar topographical characteristics. Justifications for the working hypotheses and
further developments are discussed. In particular, the whole approach is positioned with respect to both deterministic and
stochastic hydrology. 相似文献