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In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to comprehensive earthquake prediction. And
it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences
and computing comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of these methods,
18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China is tested with seismological anomalies in different seismogenic stage, and the
comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. At last some problems in
application are discussed.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 328–337, 1991. 相似文献
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郑兆苾 《地震学报(英文版)》1994,7(3):475-479
ＣｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙｆａｃｔｏｒｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｃｕｒｓｏｒｙａｎｏｍａｌｙｅｖｉｄｅｎｃｅｓＣＦ（Ｅ）Ｚｈａｏ－ＢｉＺＨＥＮＧ（郑兆）（ＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕｏｆＡｎｈｕｉＰｒｏｖｉｎｃｅ，Ｈｅｆｅｉ２３００３１，Ｃｈ... 相似文献
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10年尺度强震危险区的不精确推理预测方法讨论 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
由于现行预测方法的局限性及所使用的资料不精确、知识不完备、概念的模糊及地震发生的随机性，预测的结果具有相当的不确定性。１０ａ尺度强震危险区的预测，是依据不同尺度多种预测方法的结果，以ＭＹＣＩＮ不精确推理方法得出预测的危险区及信度。研究表明这是一条可行的，合理的预测。 相似文献
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Ｅｘｐｅｒｔｓｙｓｔｅｍｆｏｒｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ（ＥＳＥＰ）（２）－ＫｎｏｗｌｅｄｇｅｒｅｐｒｅｓｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｅｖｉｄｅｎｃｅｃｏｍｂｉｎａｔｉｏｎＨｏｎｇ－ＳｈｕｎＦＡＮ（范洪顺）ａｎｄＢｉ－ＱｕａｎＷＡＮＧ（王碧泉... 相似文献
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Landslides are one of the most serious geological disasters in the world and happen quite frequently in the Three Gorges. Landslide prediction is a very important measure of landslide prevention and cure in the Three Gorges. Traditional methods lack in sufficiently mining the various complex information from a landslide system. They often need much manual intervention and possess poor intelligence and accuracy. An intelligent method proposed in this paper for landslide prediction based on an object-oriented method and knowledge driving is hopeful to solve the above problem. The method adopted Landsat ETM+ images, 1:50,000 geological map and 1:10,000 relief map in the Three Gorges as the data origins. It firstly produced the key factors influencing landslide development and used multi-resolution segmentation algorithm to segment the image objects based on the key landslide factors of engineering rock group, reservoir water fluctuation, slope structure and slope level. Secondly, the method chose some sample objects and adopted the decision tree algorithm C5.0 to mine the landslide forecast criteria according to the factor values of each sample object. Finally, under knowledge driving the method classified the image objects and realized landslide susceptibility analysis and intelligent prediction in the Three Gorges. The method proposed in this paper is object-oriented. Results of a real-world example show that: (1) the object-oriented method possesses much more compact knowledge representation, higher efficiency, more continuous classifying result and higher prediction accuracy compared with the pixel-oriented method; (2) it possesses the overall accuracy of 87.64% and kappa coefficient of 0.8305 and is more accurate than the other seven methods (such as the pixel-oriented methods of Parallelpiped, Minimum Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance, K-means and Isodata and the object-oriented method of Nearest Neighbor); (3) about 46.97% landslides lie in the high susceptibility region, 24.24% landslides lie in the moderate susceptibility region, 27.27% landslides lie in the low susceptibility region and 1.52% landslides lie in the very low susceptibility region. Therefore the method can effectively realize landslide susceptibility analysis and provides a new idea for landslide intelligent and accurate prediction. 相似文献
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利用４０个地震震例对新一代地震预报专家系统ＮＧＥＳＥＰ的预报效果进行了检验。比较了使用信度分布图和信度等值线图两种方法未来发震地点的效能，分析了系统对地震三要素的预报结果，表明该系统具有较高的预报效能。 相似文献
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为探索地震活动性前兆异常图像在1年尺度上的时空演化特征,应用地震活动因子预测方法,对华北地区进行了全时空扫描分析,筛选出对应效果较好的4个因子进行了全程统计。结果表明,震前1年左右扫描区域内异常小区由多到少到发震的现象,以及发震构造单元的异常小区所占比例较高的现象。归纳出根据异常小区数从多-少-发震的时间预测方法和根据构造单元的异常小区高比值的地点预测方法,它是利用地震活动因子进行预测的更易于识别的时空异常特征指标,经R值评分检验在一定程度上提高了预报效能。 相似文献
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Thedevelopmentandthevariationoftheearthquakeprocessisaverycomplicatedoneandaffectedandlimitedbymanyfactors.Thekeyoftheaccuratepredictionistosetupadynamiccomprehensivepredictionmodelbasedonthecomprehensionoftheprecursorcharacteristicandtheattentionofthevariationwithtimeofthesefactors.Inthispaper,wetrytoapplythefaultdiagnosistectonictoeanhquakeprediction.Thefaultdiagnosistectonicisanapplicableboundaryscience.Thebasicideaistojudgeifthefaultoccurinthesystemandtodeterminewhereandwhenthefaultoccuran… 相似文献
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现有的综合预测模型，大多未考虑系统的时变性和各种异常在震前所显示的不同持续时间。本文本文对地震过程的不可逆性与孕育过程中的时变性，由可容纳不同异常持续时间的名参量动态预测综合模型，依据适合于不可逆过程的ＡＲＭＡ和ＶＡＲ参量预测模型，以华北北部区域为例，探讨了进行未来强震危险性预测的途径。 相似文献
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云南地下水位动态短临标志体系研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文以单井剖析为基础，以震兆资料为依据，进行地下水位异常特征与地震三要素异常系列标志的研究及动态系列标志的研究，旨在提高地下水位动态短临预报的科学性，新颖性，实用性，已初步建立的云南地下水位动态短临标志体系，经预报实践的检验，基本可行并取得较好的预报效果。 相似文献
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对张北6.2级地震预测的回顾和再研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对张北6.2级地震在测震学前兆图像、预测回顾及总结的基础上,对部分反映较好的测震学预测指标进行了比较系统的预报效能检验和评估,进一步确定和筛选出部分测震学预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,为各预测指标的三要素界定和预测效能提供了定量的参考依据。 对各种预报方法进行比较系统和客观的预报效能检验和评估,确定和筛选预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,这不仅是地震预测预报逐步向科学、客观、严谨和实用化方向迈进的重要途径,而且是探索以震源物理为基础和孕震阶段为依据的多学科异常有机结合的综合概率预测的必要前题。 相似文献
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The Haicheng,China, earthquake of 4 February 1975; the first successfully predicted major earthquake
R. D. Adams 《地震工程与结构动力学》1976,4(5):423-437
The earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that occurred near the town of Haicheng in north-east China on 4 February 1975 was the first major earthquake anywhere in the world known to have been predicted with enough certainty for people to have been warned, and measures taken for civil protection. These steps were successful in keeping the number of casualties small. This paper describes a visit to the affected area seven and a half months after the earthquake, and discussions with Chinese scientists about their successful prediction methods. The prediction resulted from the synthesis of many types of investigation, but the main methods used for long-, mid- and short-term prediction appear to have been based on studies of seismicity, deformation and foreshocks respectively. 相似文献