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1.
In this paper the impact of Doppler weather radar (DWR) reflectivity and radial velocity observations for the short range forecasting of a tropical storm and associated rainfall event have been examined. Doppler radar observations of a tropical storm case that occurred during 29–30 October 2006 from SHARDWR (13.6° N, 80.2° E) are assimilated in the WRF 3DVAR system. The observation operator for radar reflectivity and radial velocity is included within latest version of WRF 3DVAR system. Keeping all model physics the same, three experiments were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 30?km. In the control experiment (CTRL), NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) interpolated to the model grid was used as the initial condition for 48-h free forecast. In the second experiment (NODWR), 6-h assimilation cycles have been carried out using all conventional (radiosonde and surface data) and non-conventional (satellite) observations from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). The third experiment (DWR) is the same as the second, except Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity observations are also used in the assimilation cycle. Continuous 6-h assimilation cycle employed in the WRF-3DVAR system shows positive impact on the rainfall forecast. Assimilation of DWR data creates several small scale features near the storm centre. Additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to study the individual impact of reflectivity and radial velocity in the assimilation cycle. Radar data assimilation with reflectivity alone produced large analysis response on both thermodynamical and dynamical fields. However, radial velocity assimilation impacted only on dynamical fields. Analysis increments with radar reflectivity and radial velocity produce adjustments in both dynamical and thermodynamical fields. Verification of QPF skill shows that radar data assimilation has a considerable impact on the short range precipitation forecast. Improvement of the QPF skill with radar data assimilation is more clearly seen in the heavy rainfall (for thresholds >7?mm) event than light rainfall (for thresholds of 1 and 3?mm). The spatial pattern of rainfall is well simulated by the DWR experiment and is comparable to TRMM observations.  相似文献   

2.
In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-2.0.3.1) model with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) was utilized to study a heavy rainfall event along the west coast of India with and without the assimilation of GPS occultation refractivity soundings in the monsoon period of 2002. The WRF model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research communities. The Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) refractivity data, processed by UCAR, were obtained from the CHAMP and SAC-C missions. This study investigates the impact of thirteen GPS occultation refractivity soundings only, as assimilated into the WRF model with 3DVAR, on the rainfall prediction over the western coastal mountain of India. The model simulation, with the finest resolution of 10 km, was in good agreement with rainfall observations, up to 72-h forecast. There are some subtle but important differences in predicted rainfalls between the control run CN (without the assimilation of refractivity soundings) and G13 (with the assimilation of thirteen GPS RO soundings). In general, the assimilation run G13 gives a better prediction in terms of both rainfall locations and amounts at later times. The moisture increments were analyzed at the initial and forecast times to assess the impact of GPS RO data assimilation. The results indicate that remote soundings in the forcing region could have significant impacts on distant downstream regions. It is anticipated, based on this study, that considerably occultation soundings available from the six-satellite constellation of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC would have even more significant impacts on weather prediction in this region.  相似文献   

3.
Based on the observational data in summer, the variations of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the daily rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV) were studied by using the non-integer spectrum analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2005 were analyzed by principal oscillation pattern analysis (POP) to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of principal ISO patterns of the global circulation. The relationships of these ISO patterns to the rainfall ISO and the heavy precipitation process over LYRV were also discussed. It is found that the rainfall over LYRV in May–August is mainly of periodic oscillations of 10–20, 20–30 and 60–70 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 20–30-day oscillation has a strongly positive correlation with the number of the heavy precipitation process. Two modes (POP1, POP2) are revealed by POP for the 20–30-day oscillation of the global 850 hPa geopotential height. One is a circumglobal teleconnection wave train in the middle latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SCGT) with an eastward propagation, and the other is the southward propagation pattern in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). The POP modes explain 7.72% and 7.66% of the variance, respectively. These two principal ISO patterns are closely linked to the low frequency rainfall and heavy precipitation process over LYRV, in which the probability for the heavy precipitation process over LYRV is 54.9% and 60.4% for the positive phase of the imaginary part of POP1 and real part of POP2, respectively. Furthermore, the models of the global atmospheric circulation for the 20–30-day oscillation in association with or without the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the Northern Hemisphere summer are set up by means of the composite analysis method. Most of the heavy precipitation processes over LYRV appear in Phase 4 of SCGT or Phase 6 of TWP. When the positive phases of 20–30-day oscillations for the rainfall over LYRV are associated with (without) the heavy precipitation process, a strong westerly stream appears (disappears) from the Arabian Sea via India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to southern China and LYRV for the global 850 hPa filtered wind field during Phase 4 of SCGT. This situation is favorable (unfavorable) for the forming of the heavy precipitation process over LYRV. Similarly, a strong (weak) western wind belt forms from India through BOB to southern China and LYRV and the subtropical northwestern Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Pacific during Phase 6 of TWP for the cases with (without) the heavy precipitation process. The evolutions of these ISO patterns related to the 20–30-day oscillation are excited by either the interaction of extratropical circulation in both hemispheres or the heat source forcing in Asia monsoon domain and internal interaction of circulation in East Asia. These two global circulation models might therefore provide valuable information for the extended-range forecastof the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the 10–30 days.  相似文献   

4.
Assimilation experiments are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models’ three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) scheme to evaluate the impact of directly assimilating the Advanced Television and Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) radiance, including AMSU-A, AMSU-B and HIRS, on the analysis and forecasts of a mesoscale model over the Indian region. The present study is, to our knowledge, the first where the impact of ATOVS radiance has been evaluated on the analysis and forecasts of a mesoscale model over the Indian region. The control (without ATOVS radiance) as well as experimental (which assimilated ATOVS radiance) run were made for 48 h starting at 0000 UTC during the entire July 2008. The impacts of assimilating the radiances from different instruments (e.g., AMSU-A, AMSU-B and HIRS) were measured in comparison to the control run. The assimilation experiments for July 2008 (30 cases) demonstrated a positive impact of the assimilated ATOVS radiance on both the analysis state as well as subsequent short-range forecasts. Relative to the control run, the moisture analysis was improved with the assimilation of AMSU-B and HIRS radiance, while AMSU-A was mainly responsible for improved temperature analysis. The comparison of the model-predicted temperature, moisture and wind with NCEP analysis indicated that a positive forecast impact is achieved from each of the three instruments. HIRS and AMSU-A radiance yielded only a slight positive forecast impact, while AMSU-B radiance had the largest positive forecast impact for moisture, temperature and wind. The comparison of model-predicted rainfall with observed rainfall indicates that ATOVS radiance, particularly AMSU-B and HIRS, impacted the rainfall positively. This study clearly shows that the improved analysis of mid-tropospheric moisture, due to the assimilation of AMSU-B radiances, is a key factor to improve the short-term forecast skill of a mesoscale model.  相似文献   

5.
The paper focuses on the development of reservoir operating rules for dry and rainfall events, and their implementation in the case of the Ghézala dam located in northern Tunisia (characterized by Mediterranean climate). Rainfall events are defined in terms of depth and duration that are correlated to each other. A depth analysis per event is performed, conditioned on the event duration. The gamma distribution provides a good fit to depth per event, especially for events lasting at least 6 days. The event duration fits a geometric distribution, whereas the dry events during the rainy season fit a negative binomial distribution. The climatic cycle length is fitted to a gamma distribution. On this basis, many 50-year synthetic event series were generated. Every synthetic streamflow sequence obtained from synthetic rainfall sequences as well as the one derived from the historic rainfall events time series were optimized and optimal decisions were formulated. These decisions were assessed by means of multiple regression analysis to estimate the relation between the optimal decision to every stage (dry or rainfall event) and other system variables. Optimal rules, which have a linear form, were derived by predetermined useful storage interval and depend on storage, inflows and downstream demand at dry or rainfall event t. The range of t is 1–13 days (rainfall event) and 1–57 days (dry event). The rules were satisfactory for every predetermined useful storage interval. The simulated dam performance generated by the operation rules was compared with the deterministic optimum operation and the historical operation. Also included is the comparison of the implicit stochastic optimization-based operation policy per event during the water years 1985–2002.
Fethi LebdiEmail:
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6.
Monsoon depressions, the main rain-producing systems over the Indian region along and near their tracks, are found to intensify the monsoon circulation by organizing low-level convergence. The normal track of the monsoon depressions is along the position of the monsoon trough at the surface, i.e., northwestward from the Head Bay of Bengal. Most of the monsoon depressions dissipate within one or two days after landfall. An unusual monsoon depression formed in the Bay of Bengal during the 1st week of August 2006 causing heavy to very heavy rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat States of India. The track of this depression was anomalously southward from the mean track of the August depressions. It maintained its intensity during its longer travel. This paper addresses some of the dynamical characteristics of the depression in relation to its southward/westward track and longer travel. It is observed that horizontal advection of absolute vorticity above 550 hPa (below 600 hPa) along west (east) of the depression and maximum divergence of absolute vorticity below 400 hPa dominated for the westward movement of the depression. Increased moisture supply from the Arabian Sea (after the landfall of the depression) helped to maintain the intensity of the system throughout its long travel. The energy conversion terms revealed the strengthening of the zonal flow at higher levels prior to the formation of the depression.  相似文献   

7.
Three choices of control variables for meteorological variational analysis (3DVAR or 4DVAR) are associated with horizontal wind: (1) streamfunction and velocity potential, (2) eastward and northward velocity, and (3) vorticity and divergence. This study shows theoretical and numerical differences of these variables in practical 3DVAR data assimilation through statistical analysis and numerical experiments. This paper demonstrates that (a) streamfunction and velocity potential could potentially introduce analysis errors; (b) A 3DVAR using velocity or vorticity and divergence provides a natural scale dependent influence radius in addition to the covariance; (c) for a regional analysis, streamfunction and velocity potential are retrieved from the background velocity field with Neumann boundary condition. Improper boundary conditions could result in further analysis errors; (d) a variational data assimilation or an inverse problem using derivatives as control variables yields smoother analyses, for example, a 3DVAR using vorticity and divergence as controls yields smoother wind analyses than those analyses obtained by a 3DVAR using either velocity or streamfunction/velocity potential as control variables; and (e) statistical errors of higher order derivatives of variables are more independent, e.g., the statistical correlation between U and V is smaller than the one between streamfunction and velocity potential, and thus the variables in higher derivatives are more appropriate for a variational system when a cross-correlation between variables is neglected for efficiency or other reasons. In summary, eastward and northward velocity, or vorticity and divergence are preferable control variables for variational systems and the former is more attractive because of its numerical efficiency. Numerical experiments are presented using analytic functions and real atmospheric observations.  相似文献   

8.
This study examines the short-range forecast accuracy of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) as applied to the July 2006 episode of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the model's sensitivity to the choice of different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), namely Betts-Miller, Grell (GR) and Kain-Fritsch (KF). The results showed that MM5 day 1 (0–24 h prediction) and day 2 (24–48 h prediction) forecasts using all three CPSs overpredicted monsoon rainfall over the Indian landmass, with the larger overprediction seen in the day 2 forecasts. Among the CPSs, the rainfall distribution over the Indian landmass was better simulated in forecasts using the KF scheme. The KF scheme showed better skill in predicting the area of rainfall for most of the rainfall thresholds. The root mean square error (RMSE) in day 1 and day 2 rainfall forecasts using different CPSs showed that rainfall simulated using the KF scheme agreed better with the observed rainfall. As compared to other CPSs, simulation using the GR scheme showed larger RMSE in wind speed prediction at 850 and 200 hPa over the Indian landmass. MM5 24-h temperature forecasts at 850 hPa with all the CPSs showed a warm bias of the order of 1 K over the Indian landmass and the bias doubled in 48-h model forecasts. The mean error in temperature prediction at 850 hPa over the Indian region using the KF scheme was comparatively smaller for all the forecast intervals. The model with all the CPSs overpredicted humidity at 850 hPa. The improved prediction by MM5 with the KF scheme is well complemented by the smaller error shown by the KF scheme in vertical distribution of heat and mean moist static energy in the lower troposphere. In this study, the KF scheme which explicitly resolve the downdrafts in the cloud column tended to produce more realistic precipitation forecasts as compared to other schemes which did not explicitly incorporate downdraft effects. This is an important result especially given that the area covered by monsoon-precipitating systems is largely from stratiform-type clouds which are associated with strong downdrafts in the lower levels. This result is useful for improving the treatment of cumulus convection in numerical models over the ISM region.  相似文献   

9.
In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite remote sensing observations (Oceansat-2 winds, MODIS temperature/humidity profiles) is studied on the simulation of two tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region of the Indian Ocean using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) technique. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used to simulate the severe cyclone JAL: 5–8 November 2010 and the very severe cyclone THANE: 27–30 December 2011 with a double nested domain configuration and with a horizontal resolution of 27 × 9 km. Five numerical experiments are conducted for each cyclone. In the control run (CTL) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global forecast system analysis and forecasts available at 50 km resolution were used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second (VARAWS), third (VARSCAT), fourth (VARMODIS) and fifth (VARALL) experiments, the conventional surface observations, Oceansat-2 ocean surface wind vectors, temperature and humidity profiles of MODIS, and all observations were respectively used for assimilation. Results indicate meager impact with surface observations, and relatively higher impact with scatterometer wind data in the case of the JAL cyclone, and with MODIS temperature and humidity profiles in the case of THANE for the simulation of intensity and track parameters. These relative impacts are related to the area coverage of scatterometer winds and MODIS profiles in the respective storms, and are confirmed by the overall better results obtained with assimilation of all observations in both the cases. The improvements in track prediction are mainly contributed by the assimilation of scatterometer wind vector data, which reduced errors in the initial position and size of the cyclone vortices. The errors are reduced by 25, 21, 38 % in vector track position, and by 57, 36, 39 % in intensity, at 24, 48, 72 h predictions, respectively, for the two cases using assimilation of all observations. Simulated rainfall estimates indicate that while the assimilation of scatterometer wind data improves the location of the rainfall, the assimilation of MODIS profiles produces a realistic pattern and amount of rainfall, close to the observational estimates.  相似文献   

10.
Currently, the vegetation has recovered well in most areas of the Loess Plateau in China, and soil erosion has significantly decreased. However, the heavy rainfall event in July 2018 triggered many instances of a unique type of loess landslides(i.e., slide-flows) on the gully-slopes with vegetation recovery in the Nanxiaohegou Basin on the Loess Plateau. This rainfall event was unusual and was a persistent heavy rainfall. The accumulated rainfall from 24 June to 10 July was 232.2 mm, which compr...  相似文献   

11.
On 29–30 November 2006, heavy rains from Supertyphoon Durian remobilized volcanic debris on the southern and eastern slopes of Mount Mayon, generating major lahars that caused severe loss of life and property in downstream communities. The nearby Legaspi City weather station recorded 495.8 mm of rainfall over 1.5 days at rates as high as 47.5 mm/h, far exceeding the initiation threshold for Mayon lahars. For about 18 h, floods and lahars from the intense and prolonged rainfall overtopped river bends, breaching six dikes through which they created new paths, buried downstream communities in thick, widespread deposits, and caused most of the 1,266 fatalities. In order to mitigate damage from future lahars, the deposits were described and analyzed for clues to their generation and impact on structures and people. Post-disaster maps were generated from raw ASTER and SPOT images, using automated density slicing to characterize lahar deposits, flooded areas, croplands, and urbanized areas. Fieldwork was undertaken to check the accuracy of the maps, especially at the edges of the lahar deposits, and to measure the deposit thicknesses. The Durian event was exceptional in terms of rainfall intensity, but the dikes eventually failed because they were designed and built according to flood specifications, not to withstand major lahars.  相似文献   

12.
Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1–10, 11–25, 26–50, 51–100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980–1994, and data during 1995–1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions in Orissa, the PoP model performs very well with percentages of correct forecast for occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation being about 96% and 88%, respectively for developmental and independent data. The skill of the QPF model, though relatively less, is reasonable for lower ranges of precipitation. The skill of the model is limited for higher ranges of precipitation. accepted September 2006  相似文献   

13.
An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) is used to assimilate Argo profiles of 2008 in a global version of the Modular Ocean Model version 4. Four assimilation experiments are carried out to compare with the simulation without data assimilation, which serves as the control experiment. All experiment results are compared with dataset of Global Temperature–Salinity Profile Program and satellite sea surface temperature (SST). The first experiment (Exp 1) is implemented by perturbing temperature of upper layers in the initial conditions (ICs) with an amplitude of 1.0°C and no ensemble inflation. The results from Exp 1 show that the simulated temperature (salinity) deviation in the upper 400 m (500 m) is reduced through Argo data assimilation; however, these deviations are increased in deeper layers. The error reduction in SST is much greater during January to June than during the rest of the year. Three more experiments are designed to understand the responses in different layers and months. Two of them test model sensitivities to ICs by perturbing them vertically: one over the vertical extent of the whole water column (Exp 2) and the other employs smaller perturbation amplitude of 0.1°C (Exp 3). Exp 2 shows that the simulated temperature and salinity deviations are systematically improved in the whole water column. Comparison between Exps 2 and 3 suggests that perturbation amplitude is important. Exp 4 tests the influence of the optimal inflation factor of 5%, which is determined by other set of numerical tests. Exp 4 improves assimilation performance much more than the other three experiments without inflation. Therefore, we conclude that the perturbation should be introduced to all model layers, proper perturbation amplitude is important for Ocean data assimilation using EAKF, and the ensemble inflation by an optimal inflation is critical to improve the skill of the EAKF analysis.  相似文献   

14.
Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.  相似文献   

15.
WRF模式不同陆面方案对一次暴雨事件模拟的影响   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文
本文利用中尺度模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.1版本及National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)分析资料,就2003年6月下旬我国江淮及南方地区的强降水事件, 以24 h短期天气模拟的方式,研究了模式中四个不同陆面方案对降水模拟的影响.结果表明,此次暴雨事件模拟对不同陆面方案是比较敏感的,模拟区域内雨量级别越高,不同方案的TS评分差异就越大,较大范围雨量可存在30%的差异,四种方案的暴雨中心值可存在100%～150%的较大差别;不同陆面方案还导致了模拟平均感热通量及潜热通量的系统性差异,这些差异的分布具有地域特点;陆面方案通过两种机理对模拟降水产生重要影响,即主要影响地表蒸发量,以及主要影响低层环流及水汽辐合,从而分别影响模拟的较大范围降水(如,平均约7%、最大约30%的较大范围雨量差异)及包含模拟降水中心的较小范围暴雨(如,方案间暴雨中心雨量可存在100%～150%的较大差别).可见,不同陆面过程可从不同空间尺度、不同程度上影响暴雨天气,改进陆面方案可以提高WRF模式对暴雨的模拟能力.  相似文献   

16.
Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data.  相似文献   

17.
A global eddy-admitting ocean/sea-ice simulation driven over 1958–2004 by daily atmospheric forcing is used to evaluate spatial patterns of sea level change between 1993 and 2001. In the present study, no data assimilation is performed. The model is based on the Nucleus for European Models of the Ocean code at the 1/4° resolution, and the simulation was performed without data assimilation by the DRAKKAR project. We show that this simulation correctly reproduces the observed regional sea level trend patterns computed using satellite altimetry data over 1993–2001. Generally, we find that regional sea level change is best simulated in the tropical band and northern oceans, whereas the Southern Ocean is poorly simulated. We examine the respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to the total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions. Generally, the model results show that most regional sea level changes arise from temperature changes in the upper 750 m of the ocean. However, contributions of salinity changes and deep steric changes can be locally important. We also propose a map of ocean bottom pressure changes. Finally, we assess the robustness of such a model by comparing this simulation with a second simulation performed by MERCATOR-Ocean based on the same core model, but differing by its short length of integration (1992–2001) and its surface forcing data set. The long simulation presents better performance over 1993–2001 than the short simulation, especially in the Southern Ocean where a long adjustment time seems to be needed. In memory of my little brother Jean-Eudes, whose thirst for science filled out the rich discussions we had about my investigations and his job as user-service provider for MERCATOR-Ocean.  相似文献   

18.
Recent climate change projections suggest that negative impacts on flood control and water supply functions and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida are possible. An analysis of historical rainfall and temperature data of the Florida peninsula indicates that there were no discernible trends in both the long-term record and during the more recent period (1950–2007). A comparison of General Circulation Model (GCM) results for the 20th century with the historical data shows that many of the GCMs do not capture the statistical characteristics of regional rainfall and temperature regimes in south Florida. Investigation of historical sea level data at Key West finds evidence for an increase in the occurrence and variance of maximum sea level events for the period 1961–2008 in relation to 1913–1960, along with a shift of energy from shorter to longer timescales. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida in response to changing precipitation and evapotranspiration forcing, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale hydrologic and water management model is conducted. Model results suggest that projected climate change has potential to reduce the effectiveness of water supply and flood control operations for all water sectors. These findings emphasize that questions on the potential impacts of climate change need to be investigated with particular attention paid to the uncertainties of such projections.  相似文献   

19.
A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C) near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m2 is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m2. The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature, although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced.  相似文献   

20.
Global climate change is one of the most serious issues we are facing today. While its exact impacts on our water resources are hard to predict, there is a general consensus among scientists that it will result in more frequent and more severe hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, droughts). Since rainfall is the primary input for hydrologic and water resource studies, assessment of the effects of climate change on rainfall is essential for devising proper short-term emergency measures as well as long-term management strategies. This is particularly the case for a region like the Korean Peninsula, which is susceptible to both floods (because of its mountainous terrain and frequent intense rainfalls during the short rainy season) and droughts (because of its smaller area, long non-rainy season, and lack of storage facilities). In view of this, an attempt is made in the present study to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, the dynamics of ‘present rainfall’ and ‘future rainfall’ at the Seoul meteorological station in the Han River basin are examined and compared; monthly scale is considered in both cases. As for ‘present rainfall,’ two different data sets are used: (1) observed rainfall for the period 1971–1999; and (2) rainfall for the period 1951–1999 obtained through downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs produced by the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research-Bergen Climate Model Version 2 (BCCR-BCM2.0) climate model with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) scenario. The ‘future rainfall’ (2000–2099) is obtained through downscaling of climate outputs projected by the BCCR-BCM2.0 with the A2 emission scenario. For downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs to basin-scale rainfall, a K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique is used. Examination of the nature of rainfall dynamics is made through application of four methods: autocorrelation function, phase space reconstruction, correlation dimension, and close returns plot. The results are somewhat mixed, depending upon the method, as to whether the rainfall dynamics are chaotic or stochastic; however, the dynamics of the future rainfall seem more on the chaotic side than on the stochastic side, and more so when compared to that of the present rainfall.  相似文献   

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