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1.
The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070 to 2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics for the 2070 to 2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80, 120, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10, 15, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (±0.1 m3/s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics.  相似文献   

2.
The drought of summer 2018, which affected much of Northern Europe, resulted in low river flows, biodiversity loss and threats to water supplies. In some regions, like the Scottish Highlands, the summer drought followed two consecutive, anomalously dry, winter periods. Here, we examine how the drought, and its antecedent conditions, affected soil moisture, groundwater storage, and low flows in the Bruntland Burn; a sub-catchment of the Girnock Burn long-term observatory in the Scottish Cairngorm Mountains. Fifty years of rainfall-runoff observations and long-term modelling studies in the Girnock provided unique contextualisation of this extreme event in relation to more usual summer storage dynamics. Whilst summer precipitation in 2018 was only 63% of the long-term mean, soil moisture storage across much of the catchment were less than half of their summer average and seasonal groundwater levels were 0.5 m lower than normal. Hydrometric and isotopic observations showed that ~100 mm of river flows during the summer (May-Sept) were sustained almost entirely by groundwater drainage, representing ~30% of evapotranspiration that occurred over the same period. A key reason that the summer drought was so severe was because the preceding two winters were also dry and failed to adequately replenish catchment soil moisture and groundwater stores. As a result, the drought had the biggest catchment storage deficits for over a decade, and likely since 1975–1976. Despite this, recovery was rapid in autumn/winter 2018, with soil and groundwater stores returning to normal winter values, along with stream flows. The study emphasizes how long-term data from experimental sites are key to understanding the non-linear flux-storage interactions in catchments and the “memory effects” that govern the evolution of, and recovery from, droughts. This is invaluable both in terms of (a) giving insights into hydrological behaviours that will become more common water resource management problems in the future under climate change and (b) providing extreme data to challenge hydrological models.  相似文献   

3.
The influence of riparian woodland on stream temperature, micro‐climate and energy exchange was investigated over seven calendar years. Continuous data were collected from two reaches of the Girnock Burn (a tributary of the Aberdeenshire Dee, Scotland) with contrasting land use characteristics: (1) semi‐natural riparian forest and (2) open moorland. In the moorland reach, wind speed and energy fluxes (especially net radiation, latent heat and sensible heat) varied considerably between years because of variable riparian micro‐climate coupled strongly to prevailing meteorological conditions. In the forested reach, riparian vegetation sheltered the stream from meteorological conditions that produced a moderated micro‐climate and thus energy exchange conditions, which were relatively stable between years. Net energy gains (losses) in spring and summer (autumn and winter) were typically greater in the moorland than the forest. However, when particularly high latent heat loss or low net radiation gain occurred in the moorland, net energy gain (loss) was less than that in the forest during the spring and summer (autumn and winter) months. Spring and summer water temperature was typically cooler in the forest and characterised by less inter‐annual variability due to reduced, more inter‐annually stable energy gain in the forested reach. The effect of riparian vegetation on autumn and winter water temperature dynamics was less clear because of the confounding effects of reach‐scale inflows of thermally stable groundwater in the moorland reach, which strongly influenced the local heat budget. These findings provide new insights as to the hydrometeorological conditions under which semi‐natural riparian forest may be effective in mitigating river thermal variability, notably peaks, under present and future climates. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Spatially distributed groundwater recharge was simulated for a segment of a semi‐arid valley using three different treatments of meteorological input data and potential evapotranspiration (PET). For the same area, timeframe, land cover characteristics and soil properties, groundwater recharge was estimate using (i) single‐station climate data with monthly PET calculated by the Thornthwaite method; (ii) single‐station climate data with daily PET calculated by the Penman–Monteith method; and (iii) daily gridded climate data with spatially distributed PET calculated using the Penman–Monteith method. For each treatment, the magnitude and distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) for summer months compared well with those estimated for a 5‐year crop study, suggesting that the near‐surface hydrological processes were replicated and that subsequent groundwater recharge rates are realistic. However, for winter months, calculated AET was near zero when using the Thornthwaite PET method. Mean annual groundwater recharge varied from ～3·2 to 10·0 mm when PET was calculated by the Thornthwaite method, and from ～1·8 to 7·5 mm when PET was calculated by the Penman–Monteith method. Comparisons of bivariate plots of seasonal recharge rates estimated from single‐station versus gridded surface climate reveal that there is greater variability between the different methods for spring months, which is the season of greatest recharge. Furthermore, these seasonal differences are shown to provide different results when compared to the depth to water table, which could lead to different results of evaporative extinction depth. These findings illustrate potential consequences of using different approaches for representing spatial meteorological input data, which could provide conflicting predictions when modelling the influence of climate change on groundwater recharge. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Environmental flow (e-flow) assessment is essential for the ecological protection and restoration of lake-marsh systems. Previous studies on e-flow assessment for lake-marsh systems focused on lake-marsh systems with natural seasonal hydrological patterns (i.e., low water level in winter and high water level in summer). However, they have not considered lake-marsh systems with reverse seasonal hydrological patterns (i.e., high water level in winter and low water level in summer). The reverse seasonal hydrological patterns impose seriously negative impacts on waterbirds, because the hydrological patterns could lead to limited plant germination in spring and massive plant death in summer, leaving few plants available as food for waterbirds in winter, and could consequently reduce the sheltering and forageable areas for waterbirds. This study took Hongze Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve in China as the study area. Based on the habitat requirements of waterbirds, the sheltering and forageable areas for waterbirds under different water-depth and aquatic plant distribution scenarios were calculated. By exploring the impacts of reverse seasonal hydrological processes on waterbird habitats, we determined the necessary e-flows for lake-marsh systems with reverse seasonal hydrological patterns to meet the needs of waterbird habitat. The results showed that the water level of Hongze Lake should be controlled to 13.0–13.1 m in March, 12.5–12.6 m in July, and 12.9–13.0 m in October, which can meet the needs of waterbirds for both shelter and foraging.  相似文献   

6.
Streamwater discharge and chemistry of two small catchments on Catoctin Mountain in north-central Maryland have been monitored since 1982. Repetitive seasonal cycles in stream-water chemistry have been observed each year, along with seasonal cycles in the volume of stream discharge and in groundwater levels. The hypothesis that the observed streamwater chemical cycles are related to seasonal changes in the hydrological flow paths that contribute to streamflow is examined using a combination of data on groundwater levels, shallow and deep groundwater chemistry, streamwater discharge, streamwater chemistry, soil-water chemistry, and estimates of water residence times. The concentrations of constituents derived from rock weathering, particularly bicarbonate and silica, increase in streamwater during the summer when the water table is below the regolith-bedrock interface and stream discharge consists primarily of deep groundwater from the fractured-bedrock aquifer. Conversely, the concentrations in streamwater of atmospherically derived components, particularly sulfate, increase in winter when the water table is above the regolith-bedrock interface and stream discharge consists primarily of shallow groundwater from the regolith. Tritium and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) measurements suggest that the groundwater in these systems is young, with a residence time of less than several years. The results of this study have implications for the design of large-scale water-quality monitoring programs.  相似文献   

7.
Droughts are natural phenomena that severely affect socio economic and ecological systems. In Chile, population and economic activities are highly concentrated in its central region (i.e. between latitudes 29°S and 40°S), which periodically suffers from severe droughts affecting agriculture, hydropower, and mining. Understanding the dynamics of droughts and large-scale atmospheric processes that influence the occurrence of dry spells is essential for forecasting and efficient early detection of drought events. Central Chile's climate is marked by a significant El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence that might help to better characterize droughts as well as to identify the effects of ENSO on the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region. We analysed the behaviour of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series for 6-month accumulation periods over the austral winter and summer seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) showed a significant ENSO influence on dry events for SPEI-6 and SSI-6 during winter and summer. We found that the magnitude of correlation between ENSO and SPEI-6 has changed over the last decades becoming weaker in winter periods and increasing in spring summer periods. Increasing trends in meteorological and hydrological drought events were also identified, along all latitudes, with significant trends during winter in the southern latitudes, and during summer in the semi-arid and Mediterranean zones. These results indicate that drought mitigation actions and policies are necessary to overcome their adverse effects. Given the monthly persistence of ENSO and its relationship to drought indices, there are opportunities for drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting that could become part of national drought management systems.  相似文献   

8.
We introduce the freely available web-based Water in an Agricultural Landscape—NUčice Database (WALNUD) dataset that includes both hydrological and meteorological records at the Nučice experimental catchment (0.53 km2), which is representative of an intensively farmed landscape in the Czech Republic. The Nučice experimental catchment was established in 2011 for the observation of rainfall–runoff processes, soil erosion processes, and water balance of a cultivated landscape. The average altitude is 401 m a.s.l., the mean land slope is 3.9%, and the climate is humid continental (mean annual temperature 7.9°C, annual precipitation 630 mm). The catchment is drained by an artificially straightened stream and consists of three fields covering over 95% of the area which are managed by two different farmers. The typical crops are winter wheat, rapeseed, and alfalfa. The installed equipment includes a standard meteorological station, several rain gauges distributed across the basin, and a flume with an H-type facing that is used to monitor stream discharge, water turbidity, and basic water quality indicators. Additionally, the groundwater level and soil water content at various depths near the stream are recorded. Recently, large-scale soil moisture monitoring efforts have been introduced with the installation of two cosmic-ray neutron sensors for soil moisture monitoring. The datasets consist of observed variables (e.g. measured precipitation, air temperature, stream discharge, and soil moisture) and are available online for public use. The cross-seasonal, open access datasets at this small-scale agricultural catchment will benefit not only hydrologists but also local farmers.  相似文献   

9.
This study aimed to investigate the seasonal variability of runoff generation processes, the sources of stream water, and the controls on the contribution of event water to streamflow for a small forested catchment in the Italian pre‐Alps. Hydrometric, isotopic, and electrical conductivity data collected between August 2012 and August 2013 revealed a marked seasonal variability in runoff responses. Noticeable differences in runoff coefficients and hydrological dynamics between summer and fall/spring rainfall events were related to antecedent moisture conditions and event size. Two‐component and three‐component hydrograph separation and end‐member mixing analysis showed an increase in event water contributions to streamflow with event size and average rainfall intensity. Event water fractions were larger during dry conditions in the summer, suggesting that stormflow generation in the summer consisted predominantly of direct channel precipitation and some saturated overland flow from the riparian zone. On the contrary, groundwater and hillslope soil water contributions dominated the streamflow response during wet conditions in fall. Seasonal differences were also noted between event water fractions computed based on isotopic and electrical conductivity data, likely because of the dilution effect during the wetter months. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
This study demonstrates the use of spatially downscaled, monthly general circulation model (GCM) rainfall and temperature data to drive the established HyMOD hydrological model to evaluate the prospective effects of climate change on the fluvial run‐off of the River Derwent basin in the UK. The evaluation results of this monthly hydrological model using readily available, monthly GCM data are consistent with studies on nearby catchments employing high‐temporal resolution data, indicating that useful hydro‐climatic planning studies may be possible using standard datasets and modest computational resources. HyMOD was calibrated against 5 km2 gridded UK Climate Projections dataset data and then driven using monthly spatially interpolated (~5 km2) outputs from Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A2a and B2a covering the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results for both GCMs project a decrease in annual run‐off in both GCM models and scenarios with higher values in the summer/autumn months, whereas an increase in the later winter months. Both Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis show higher ranges of uncertainty during the winter season with higher values of run‐off associated with December in all three simulation periods and two scenarios. A seasonal comparison of run‐off simulations shows that both GCMs give similar results in summer and autumn, whereas disparities due to GCM uncertainties are more conspicuous in winter and spring. In this study, both the GCMs under A2a scenario have demonstrated the high possibility of time shift in monthly average peak run‐offs in the Derwent River by 2080s in comparison with the early 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Stream bed temperature profiles were monitored continuously during water year 1990 and 1991 (WY90 and 91) in two New Mexico arroyos, similar in their meteorological features and dissimilar in their hydrological features. Stream bed temperature profiles between depths of 30 and 300 cm were examined to determine whether temporal changes in temperature profiles represent accurate indicators of the timing, depth and duration of percolation in each stream bed. These results were compared with stream flow, air temperature, and precipitation records for WY90 and 91, to evaluate the effect of changing surface conditions on temperature profiles. Temperature profiles indicate a persistently high thermal gradient with depth beneath Grantline Arroyo, except during a semi-annual thermal reversal in spring and autumn. This typifies the thermal response of dry sediments with low thermal conductivities. High thermal gradients were disrupted only during infrequent stream flows, followed by rapid re-establishment of high gradients. The stream bed temperature at 300 cm was unresponsive to individual precipitation or stream flow during WY90 and 91. This thermal pattern provides strong evidence that most seepage into Grantline Arroyo failed to percolate at a sufficient rate to reach 300 cm before being returned to the atmosphere. A distinctly different thermal pattern was recorded beneath Tijeras Arroyo. Low thermal gradients between 30 and 300 cm and large diurnal variations in temperature, suggest that stream flow created continuous, advection-dominated heat transport for over 300 days, annually. Beneath Tijeras Arroyo, low thermal gradients were interrupted only briefly during periodic, dry summer conditions. Comparisons of stream flow records for WY90 and 91 with stream bed temperature profiles indicate that independent analysis of thermal patterns provides accurate estimates of the timing, depth and duration of percolation beneath both arroyos. Stream flow loss estimates indicate that seepage rates were 15 times greater for Tijeras Arroyo than for Grantline Arroyo, which supports qualitative conclusions derived from analysis of stream bed temperature responses to surface conditions. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The temporal and spatial dynamics of groundwater was investigated in a small catchment in the Spanish Pyrenees, which was extensively used for agriculture in the past. Analysis of the water table fluctuations at five locations over a 6‐year period demonstrated that the groundwater dynamics had a marked seasonal cycle involving a wetting‐up period that commenced with the first autumn rainfall events, a saturation period during winter and spring and a drying‐down period from the end of spring until the end of the summer. The length of the saturation period showed great interannual variability, which was mainly influenced by the rainfall and evapotranspiration characteristics. There was marked spatial variability in the water table, especially during the wetting‐up period, which could be related to differences in slope and drainage area, geomorphology, soil properties and local topography. Areas contributing to runoff generation were identified within the catchment by field mapping of moisture conditions. Areas contributing to infiltration excess runoff were correlated with former cultivated fields affected by severe sheetwash erosion. Areas contributing to saturation excess runoff were characterized by a marked spatial dynamics associated with catchment wetness conditions. The saturation spatial pattern, which was partially related to the topographic index, was very patchy throughout the catchment, suggesting the influence of other factors associated with past agricultural activities, including changes in local topography and soil properties. The relationship between water table levels and stream flow was weak, especially during the wetting‐up period, suggesting little connection between ground water and the hydrological response, at least at some locations. The results suggest that in drier and human‐disturbed environments, such as sub‐Mediterranean mountains, saturation patterns cannot be represented only by the general topography of the catchment. They also suggest that groundwater storage and runoff is not a succession of steady‐state flow conditions, as assumed in most hydrological models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Based on stable isotopes in stream water, groundwater, and meltwater in the Kaidu River Basin, NW China, we estimated the evaporation enrichment of stable oxygen isotopes in different types of water and separated the contribution of each streamflow component in river run‐off. Our results indicated that δ18O and δ2H in stream water did not vary with altitude regularly but with seasons, with low concentrations in spring and high concentrations in summer. However, the seasonal variations of δ18O and δ2H in groundwater were not as obvious. The mean evaporation enrichment was between 26% and 44% for δ18O. Of the various water types under investigation, we found glaciers were influenced the most, showing an evaporation enrichment of 44%, followed by oasis groundwater (37%), stream water (36%), and mountain groundwater (26%). Overall, meltwater and groundwater were the predominant streamflow components, with their contributions were governed by temperature, and varied both temporally and specially. In the oasis region, groundwater was the predominant contributor (64% in spring, 50% in summer, and 66% in autumn), whereas in the mountains, groundwater was the dominant in spring (53%) and autumn (51%), and meltwater contributed the most in summer (52%). Precipitation contributed less than 15% to the streamflow.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

The long term hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes has been examined, The climate changes were represented by a set of hypothetical scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes. Snow accumulation and ablation, plus runoff from the study catchment (the Mesochora catchment in central Greece) were simulated under present (historical) and altered climate conditions using the US National Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models. The results of this research obtained through alternative scenarios suggest strongly that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation and hence increases in winter runoff, as well as decreases in spring and summer runoff. The simulated changes in annual runoff were minor compared with the changes in the monthly distribution of runoff. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration would also occur. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management.  相似文献   

15.
Riparian vegetation is frequently used for stream bank stabilization, but the effects of vegetation on subaerial processes have not been quantified. Subaerial processes, such as soil desiccation and freeze–thaw cycling, are climate‐related phenomena that deliver soil directly to the stream and make the banks more vulnerable to fluvial erosion by reducing soil strength. This study compares the impact of woody and herbaceous vegetation on subaerial processes by examining soil temperature and moisture regimes in vegetated stream banks. Soil temperature and water tension were measured at six paired field sites in southwestern Virginia, USA, for one year. Results showed that stream banks with herbaceous vegetation had higher soil temperatures and a greater diurnal temperature range during the summer compared to forested stream banks. Daily average summer soil water tension was 13 to 57 per cent higher under herbaceous vegetation than under woody vegetation, probably due to evapotranspiration from the shallow herbaceous root system on the bank. In contrast to summer conditions, the deciduous forest buffers provided little protection for stream banks during the winter: the forested stream banks experienced diurnal temperature ranges two to three times greater than stream banks under dense herbaceous cover and underwent as many as eight times the number of freeze–thaw cycles. During the winter, the stream banks under the deciduous forests were exposed to solar heating and night time cooling, which increased the diurnal soil temperature range and the occurrence of freeze–thaw cycling. Study results also indicated that freeze–thaw cycling and soil desiccation were greater on the upper stream bank due to thermal and moisture regulation of the lower bank by the stream. Therefore, subaerial erosion and soil weakening may be greater on the upper stream banks. Additional research is needed on the influence of subaerial processes on both subaerial and fluvial erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Techniques for characterizing the hydraulic properties and groundwater flow processes of aquifers are essential to design hydrogeologic conceptual models. In this study, rapid time series temperature profiles within open‐groundwater wells in fractured rock were measured using fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO‐DTS). To identify zones of active groundwater flow, two continuous electrical heating cables were installed alongside a FO‐DTS cable to heat the column of water within the well and to create a temperature difference between the ambient temperature of the groundwater in the aquifer and that within the well. Additional tests were performed to examine the effects of pumping on hydraulic fracture interconnectivity around the well and to identify zones of increased groundwater flow. High‐ and low‐resolution FO‐DTS cable configurations were examined to test the sensitivities of the technique and compared with downhole video footage and geophysical logging to confirm the zones of active groundwater flow. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of this new technique for rapid characterization of fracture zones in open boreholes. The combination of the FO‐DTS and heating cable has excellent scope as a rapid appraisal tool for borehole construction design and improving hydrogeologic conceptual models.  相似文献   

17.
Groundwater can be important in regulating stream thermal regimes in cold, temperate regions, and as such, it can be a significant factor for aquatic biota habits and habitats. Groundwater typically remains at a constant temperature through time; that is, it is warmer than surface water in winter and cooler in summer. Further, small tributaries are often dominated by groundwater during low flows of winter and summer. We exploit these thermal patterns to identify and delineate tributary/groundwater inputs along a frozen river (ice‐on) using publically available satellite data, and we tested the findings against airborne, thermal infrared (TIR) data. We utilize a supervised maximum likelihood classification (sMLC) to identify possible groundwater inputs while the river is in a frozen state (kappa coefficient of 96.77 when compared with visually delineated possible groundwater inputs). We then compare sMLC‐identified possible groundwater inputs with TIR‐classified groundwater inputs, which confirmed that there was no statistical difference (χ2 = .78), that is, confirming that groundwater inputs can be delineated in north temperate river systems using available satellite imagery of the system's frozen state. Our results also established the spatial extent and influence of possible groundwater inputs in two seasons. The thermal plumes were longer and narrower in winter; this is likely related to seasonal differences in dispersion regimes. We hypothesize that differences between summer and winter is related to either (a) tributaries that are modulated by shading in summer or (b) aquifer disconnection from the river in winter owing to frozen ground conditions and lack of aquifer recharge. This method of establishing tributary/groundwater inputs and contributions to surface water thermal regimes is relatively simple and can be useful for science and management as long as “ice cover exists”; that is, the system can achieve a frozen state.  相似文献   

18.
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET0 was driven mainly by wind speed. ET0 was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
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