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1.
文中将实时智能地震处理系统(RISP)应用于福建仙游地震序列,处理了2013年8月至12月福建台网的连续波形数据。自动处理结果与人工编目结果进行了深入对比,全面评估了RISP系统对该地震序列的自动处理能力。RISP系统共产出615个地震,与人工编目匹配事件462个,对于ML≥1.0的地震,匹配率达到96.4%;漏检测事件282个,其中ML<1.0占比为94.7%;多检测事件162个,均为仙游序列地震事件。匹配事件地震参数统计结果表明：发震时刻偏差不超过1 s占比99.13%;震中位置偏差小于5 km占比98.69%;震源深度偏差在5 km内占比91.5%;震级偏差不超过0.5占比89.54%。通过该实例测试表明：现有观测条件下,利用RISP系统可以快速产出仙游地区ML≥1.0地震序列目录,地震目录完备性高,RISP系统产出地震参数精度与人工处理结果相当,可应用于大震应急、震后趋势判定等工作。 相似文献
2.
如何使用古地震序列数据评估数值模拟得到的长期人工地震目录的准确度是地震数值预报研究所面临的重要问题.为探讨上述问题,本文开发了计算人工地震目录与古地震序列匹配度的平均绝对误差法和余弦相似度法,并将其应用于青藏高原东北缘地区,获得了与该地区古地震序列数据匹配较好的人工地震目录.基于匹配较好的目录,本文还计算了海原断裂及香山天景山断裂发生大地震后,大地震在区域四条主要断裂的迁移概率.研究结果表明:(1)以上两种方法均可用于评估人工地震目录与古地震序列的匹配度;(2)与未进行匹配的人工地震目录的迁移概率计算结果比较,通过古地震数据匹配的人工地震目录的计算结果更优,即更接近于基于古地震数据计算的地震迁移概率;(3)当大地震在海原断裂上发生后,海原断裂再次发生大地震的概率最大,约为47%,其次是香山天景山断裂,约为23%~27%.本文对评估基于动力学数值模型产生的长期人工合成地震目录的准确度做出了调查与探索,为区域地震数值预报研究提供了参考. 相似文献
3.
地球物理台网观测数据是反映前兆台网数据变化信息的重要部分,可为监测数据质量评估、地震分析预报会商、地震科学研究等工作提供科学依据。为充分利用这些保存在数据库中的事件数据记录,研制了基于MapSIS的地球物理台网事件可视化平台。该平台实现了事件记录的人工交互分析、自动统计分析,基于震情自动触发的专题报告自动生成等功能,具有功能全面、运行稳定的优点。该平台现已在全国地震前兆台网、地震分析预报会商中部署使用,可为地震分析预报提供科学可靠的信息服务。 相似文献
4.
《国际地震动态》2021,(6)
全球台网地震震相有效关联与快速精确定位是地震监测和禁核试核查的核心问题之一。禁核试条约组织(CTBTO)筹备委员会临时技术秘书处(PTS)国际数据中心(IDC)自成立以来,一直致力于台网震相自动关联有效率及自动处理公报质量的提高,以减轻分析员的工作量。NET-VISA作为IDC下一代全球震相自动关联和事件检测定位软件,使用概率模型和贝叶斯方法找到解释检测观测结果的最佳事件集,进而从这些观测结果中生成自动处理地震公报。测试结果表明,NET-VISA产生的公报要比IDC目前使用的全球关联方法生成的自动处理公报SEL3更加完整和精准。本文介绍了NET-VISA方法的基本原理和测试进展,最后对CTBT北京国家数据中心参加NET-VISA测试中朝鲜6次核试验的NETVISA关联结果作了分析对比。 相似文献
5.
6.
地震事件识别是地震层析成像的重要组成部分。然而,在处理宽频带流动台阵天然地震记录中识别地震事件过程中,利用传统的人工识别方法耗时巨大,效率十分低。本文首先运用STA/LTA 对地震事件进行初步判断,并结合支持向量机信号检测算法和多台联合检验法来提高地震事件判别的准确度及抗干扰能力,达到天然地震事件的自动识别。南岭流动台阵数据的应用结果表明该综合识别算法可自动快速准确地判别地震事件,并可用于地震震相的拾取。 相似文献
7.
地震台网在监测地震的同时记录到的非天然震动事件会对后续的科研和预报工作造成较大的影响,因此快速准确的对天然震动事件与非天然震动事件加以区分就显得尤为重要.本文针对传统人工方法识别地震事件性质的不足之处,采用Bagging机器学习算法对地震事件性质进行区分.首先选取震中距范围在80～200km内的地震数据,之后采用AIC算法自动识别P波到时,进而用处理后的数据训练模型,最后使用测试数据对模型进行评估,准确率可达85%以上.因此,本文提出的方法可以有效地对天然震动事件与非天然震动事件加以区分. 相似文献
8.
利用密集台阵对水力压裂微地震进行监测将有助于优化储层压裂、揭示断层活化.为满足密集台阵海量采集数据的处理需求,本文建立了一种综合运用多种机器学习方法和台阵相关性的、无需人工干预的自动处理流程,从而能够快速得到高质量的密集台阵震相到时目录.该综合策略包括：(1)利用迁移学习在连续波形中快速检测地震事件;(2)利用U型神经网络PhaseNet自动拾取P波、S波震相;(3)利用三重线性剔除法,结合密集台阵到时相关性剔除异常到时数据和地震事件;(4)利用K-means和SVM两类机器学习算法,进一步区分发震时刻接近的多个地震事件,减小事件漏拾率.通过将该流程应用于四川盆地长宁—昭通页岩气开发区微地震监测数据,并将自动处理结果与人工拾取结果进行比对发现,二者在震级测定、定位以及走时成像结果等方面具有很好的一致性,表明本文处理流程结果精度可达到手动处理精度.本文结果为密集台阵地震监测数据的高效、高精度处理提供了新思路. 相似文献
9.
利用人工神经元网络方法,提出了一种从连续的地震数据中检测出地震事件的方法。该方法分两步,首先,低阈值的STA／LTA算法从连续的波形中检测出类似地震事件;其次利用神经元网络方法,区分事件是地震事件还是噪声事件。通过对数据检测结果比较,找出了适合地震检测的神经元网络训练方法和神经元传递函数。在对天山流动台阵其中两个台的检测结果表明,在连续约两个月数据中,39RLS台检测出地震75个,30RNA台检测出地震95个,证明该方法对地震事件检测来说是一种有效的方法。 相似文献
10.
《地震研究》2021,44(2)
为解决用于高密度布设的低成本MEMS烈度计集成软、硬件资源有限,且难以嵌入较为复杂算法的这一问题,基于Matlab的仿真计算,通过讨论在不同特征函数、时窗长度和短窗位置下STA/LTA值的变化趋势、拾取效果和运算时间,以选取能提高算法灵敏性、改善地震事件拾取效果和提高算法计算效率的参数,并将改进的STA/LTA算法应用于实际地震数据处理。结果表明:不同的特征函数对事件拾取率、拾取时间偏差和算法运算时间影响不同;长短时窗长度相差越大,STA/LTA值的变化越明显;时窗越长,算法运算时间越长;短窗置后可以增大STA/LTA值的变化幅度、减少算法计算量,改善算法拾取时间。改进的STA/LTA算法拾取效果更好,计算效率更高,占用内存资源更小,更适用于集成资源有限的MEMS烈度计。 相似文献
11.
The International Data Center (IDC) produces several automatic seismic event lists followed by a reviewed event list as part of the verification regime for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. For the time period from 2005 to 2011, on average, approximately 160 events per day were included in the first IDC automatic Standard Event List (SEL1). For the same time period, “only” 86 events per day were included in the IDC Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). Several possible reasons may explain why an event included in SEL1 is excluded from the REB; for example: misassociation, namely, the association process generated an artificial event by associating information from stations that recorded several different events. Reducing the number of SEL1 events that are ultimately excluded from the REB would improve the automatic process relying on the SEL1 Bulletin and would reduce the workload of the analysts at the IDC. In this work, we present a scoring method that indicates the probability that an SEL1 event will “survive” the analysis process and be included in the REB. The method tries to imitate “good” analyst practice. Namely, based on the experience gained in analyzing information from a specific region with a seismic network, the analyst can decide if an event is a “real” event or not. The score was created for the International Monitoring System primary seismic stations based on the REB for the time period of 2005 to the beginning of 2011. The score is designed to indicate if the set of stations contributing/not contributing to the event is consistent with what is expected based on the analysis of past events that occurred in the same region. A byproduct of the analysis needed for the score is a statistical measure that assesses the typical contribution of a specific station to a specific region. This information can be useful in its own right, for example, to design subnetworks that will increase automatic processing efficiency. 相似文献
12.
本文统计了第２２ 太阳活动周期间（１９９１ ～１９９５ 年） 发生的２５ 个太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑及日冕物质抛射（ＣＭＥ） 事件的关系 统计结果表明, 所有的太阳质子事件都与耀斑发生相关, 除２ 个质子事件（１９９４１０２０ 和１９９５１０２０ 日发生的太阳质子事件） 与ＣＭＥ发生无关, 其余质子事件也都与ＣＭＥ 相关 值得注意的是, 与质子事件相关的耀斑有１６ 个是双带耀斑, 其中包括与ＣＭＥ无关的２ 个事件的耀斑, 占总数的６４ ％ 上述统计结果证实了无论是太阳耀斑, 还是物质抛射, 它们对太阳质子事件的发生同样起着非常重要的作用 相似文献
13.
Perspectives of Cross-Correlation in Seismic Monitoring at the International Data Centre 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We demonstrate that several techniques based on waveform cross-correlation are able to significantly reduce the detection threshold of seismic sources worldwide and to improve the reliability of arrivals by a more accurate estimation of their defining parameters. A master event and the events it can find using waveform cross-correlation at array stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) have to be close. For the purposes of the International Data Centre (IDC), one can use the spatial closeness of the master and slave events in order to construct a new automatic processing pipeline: all qualified arrivals detected using cross-correlation are associated with events matching the current IDC event definition criteria (EDC) in a local association procedure. Considering the repeating character of global seismicity, more than 90 % of events in the reviewed event bulletin (REB) can be built in this automatic processing. Due to the reduced detection threshold, waveform cross-correlation may increase the number of valid REB events by a factor of 1.5–2.0. Therefore, the new pipeline may produce a more comprehensive bulletin than the current pipeline—the goal of seismic monitoring. The analysts’ experience with the cross correlation event list (XSEL) shows that the workload of interactive processing might be reduced by a factor of two or even more. Since cross-correlation produces a comprehensive list of detections for a given master event, no additional arrivals from primary stations are expected to be associated with the XSEL events. The number of false alarms, relative to the number of events rejected from the standard event list 3 (SEL3) in the current interactive processing—can also be reduced by the use of several powerful filters. The principal filter is the difference between the arrival times of the master and newly built events at three or more primary stations, which should lie in a narrow range of a few seconds. In this study, one event at a distance of about 2,000 km from the main shock was formed by three stations, with the stations and both events on the same great circle. Such spurious events are rejected by checking consistency between detections at stations at different back azimuths from the source region. Two additional effective pre-filters are f–k analysis and F prob based on correlation traces instead of original waveforms. Overall, waveform cross-correlation is able to improve the REB completeness, to reduce the workload related to IDC interactive analysis, and to provide a precise tool for quality check for both arrivals and events. Some major improvements in automatic and interactive processing achieved by cross-correlation are illustrated using an aftershock sequence from a large continental earthquake. Exploring this sequence, we describe schematically the next steps for the development of a processing pipeline parallel to the existing IDC one in order to improve the quality of the REB together with the reduction of the magnitude threshold. 相似文献
14.
Deborah K. Fagan Steven R. Taylor Frederick R. Schult Dale N. Anderson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(4):521-545
We have developed and tested an algorithm, Bayesian Single Event Location (BSEL), for estimating the location of a seismic
event. The main driver for our research is the inadequate representation of ancillary information in the hypocenter estimation
procedure. The added benefit is that we have also addressed instability issues often encountered with historical NLR solvers
(e.g., non-convergence or seismically infeasible results). BSEL differs from established nonlinear regression techniques by
using a Bayesian prior probability density function (prior PDF) to incorporate ancillary physical basis constraints about
event location. P-wave arrival times from seismic events are used in the development. Depth, a focus of this paper, may be modeled with a prior
PDF (potentially skewed) that captures physical basis bounds from surface wave observations. This PDF is constructed from
a Rayleigh wave depth excitation eigenfunction that is based on the observed minimum period from a spectrogram analysis and
estimated near-source elastic parameters. For example, if the surface wave is an Rg phase, it potentially provides a strong constraint for depth, which has important implications for remote monitoring of nuclear
explosions. The proposed Bayesian algorithm is illustrated with events that demonstrate its congruity with established hypocenter
estimation methods and its application potential. The BSEL method is applied to three events: 1) A shallow Mw 4 earthquake
that occurred near Bardwell, KY on June 6, 2003, 2) the Mw 5.6 earthquake of July 26, 2005 that occurred near Dillon, MT,
and 3) a deep Mw 5.7 earthquake that occurred off the coast of Japan on April 22, 1980. A strong Rg was observed from the Bardwell, KY earthquake that places very strong constraints on depth and origin time. No Rg was observed for the Dillon, MT earthquake, but we used the minimum observed period of a Rayleigh wave (7 seconds) to reduce
the depth and origin time uncertainty. Because the Japan event was deep, there is no observed surface wave energy. We utilize
the prior generated from the Dillon, MT event to show that even in the case when a prior is inappropriately applied, high
quality data will overcome its influence and result in a reasonable hypocenter estimate. 相似文献
15.
Identifying individual rain events from pluviograph records: a review with analysis of data from an Australian dryland site 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
David Dunkerley 《水文研究》2008,22(26):5024-5036
Rainfall is routinely reported as falling in ‘events’ or ‘storms’ whose beginning and end are defined by rainless intervals of a nominated duration (minimum inter‐event time, MIT). Rain events commonly exhibit fluctuations in rain rate as well as periods when rain ceases altogether. Event characteristics such as depth, mean rain rate, and the surface runoff volume generated, are defined in relation to the length of the rain event. These derived properties are dependent upon the value of MIT adopted to define the event, and the literature reveals a wide range of MIT criteria. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to this dependency, which limits the inter‐comparison of results in published work. The diversity in criteria also diminishes the usefulness of historical data on event durations, rain rates, etc., in attempts to document changes in the rainfall climate. This paper reviews the range of approaches used in the recognition of rain events, and a 5 year pluviograph record from an arid location is analysed. Changing MIT from 15 min to 24 h (lying within the range of published criteria) alters the number of rain events from 550 to 118. The mean rain rate declines from 2·04 mm h?1 to 0·94 mm h?1, and the geometric mean event duration rises from 0·66 h to 3·98 h. This wide variation in the properties of rain events indicates that more attention needs to be paid to the selection and reporting of event criteria in studies that adopt event‐based data analysis. The selection of a MIT criterion is shown to involve a compromise between the independence of widely‐spaced events and their increasingly variable intra‐event characteristics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
在太阳的剧烈爆发事件期间,空间环境中的带电粒子能量和通量都得到显著增强,有时使卫星介质发生严重的内部充电而导致星上系统发生故障.但由于粒子与介质相互作用的过程较为复杂,以往一般采用粒子射入介质的经验公式对带电粒子在介质中的沉积进行模拟计算,而近年来蒙特卡洛方法逐渐成为能够进行更准确模拟的有效办法.本文以2004年7月底至8月初的空间天气事件为例,用基于蒙特卡罗方法的GEANT工具包模拟空间高能电子在卫星分系统的印刷电路板（PCB）中的沉积,计算由于内部充电效应造成的PCB内部电场的强度.利用该计算方法,并基于此次事件期间GOES卫星对空间高能粒子环境的监测数据,得到的计算结果表明这次事件期间的空间高能电子暴可能使星上介质发生显著的内部充电,并可能是此期间在轨航天器上发生的一些仪器运行异常的原因.本文采用的蒙特卡罗方法计算内部充电效应方法可以应用于对复杂位形和结构的星上系统的计算,结果可作为卫星抗辐射设计的参考,以有效应对灾害性的空间天气事件. 相似文献
17.
Stemflow production and intrastorm rainfall intensity variation: an experimental analysis using laboratory rainfall simulation 
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下载免费PDF全文 David Dunkerley 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(13):1741-1752
Laboratory rainfall simulation experiments using a small artificial olive tree are used to show that the fraction of rain falling at a constant intensity that becomes stemflow rises from 9% at 2.5 mm/h to 36.1% at 35 mm/h. Natural rainfall events commonly exhibit wide fluctuations of intensity. Simulated rainfall events each having a mean intensity of 10 mm/h, but containing short intensity peaks of 20 to 100 mm/h at varying intra‐event positions, were used to explore the effect of varying intensity profiles. Results demonstrate that changes in rainfall event profile are associated with wide variation in stemflow flux, stemflow volume and stemflow fraction. When applied to an initially dry plant, rainfall events with a late intensity peak yielded an average peak stemflow flux up to 188% larger than events of contrasting profile, such as early peak events. The increase was smaller, up to 141%, when rain was applied to plants that were already partially wet, but was again found in events with a late intensity peak. Moreover, such events yielded a peak stemflow flux up to approximately seven times larger than comparable events of uniform intensity. Likewise, changing event profile with no change in rainfall depth was associated with a maximum stemflow fraction that was 31% larger than theminimum stemflow fraction, and a maximum stemflow volume that was nearly 37% larger than the minimum stemflow volume. These results suggest that rainfall event profile exerts a significant effect on all of the studied stemflow parameters. It is hypothesized that this is a consequence of the way in which intensity profile affects the rate of wetting‐up of trickle pathways on the plant, and variation in the time taken for these pathways to become fully connected. Event profile must therefore be considered along with plant architecture in seeking to understand stemflow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Majid Mathlouthi Fethi Lebdi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):513-528
The paper focuses on the development of reservoir operating rules for dry and rainfall events, and their implementation in
the case of the Ghézala dam located in northern Tunisia (characterized by Mediterranean climate). Rainfall events are defined
in terms of depth and duration that are correlated to each other. A depth analysis per event is performed, conditioned on
the event duration. The gamma distribution provides a good fit to depth per event, especially for events lasting at least
6 days. The event duration fits a geometric distribution, whereas the dry events during the rainy season fit a negative binomial
distribution. The climatic cycle length is fitted to a gamma distribution. On this basis, many 50-year synthetic event series
were generated. Every synthetic streamflow sequence obtained from synthetic rainfall sequences as well as the one derived
from the historic rainfall events time series were optimized and optimal decisions were formulated. These decisions were assessed
by means of multiple regression analysis to estimate the relation between the optimal decision to every stage (dry or rainfall
event) and other system variables. Optimal rules, which have a linear form, were derived by predetermined useful storage interval
and depend on storage, inflows and downstream demand at dry or rainfall event t. The range of t is 1–13 days (rainfall event) and 1–57 days (dry event). The rules were satisfactory for every predetermined useful storage
interval. The simulated dam performance generated by the operation rules was compared with the deterministic optimum operation
and the historical operation. Also included is the comparison of the implicit stochastic optimization-based operation policy
per event during the water years 1985–2002.
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| Fethi LebdiEmail: |
19.
Intra‐event intermittency of rainfall: an analysis of the metrics of rain and no‐rain periods 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 David Dunkerley 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3294-3305
The metric or ‘observable’ properties of intra‐event rainfall intermittency (IERI) are quantified using a 10‐year record from arid Fowlers Gap, Australia. Rainfall events were delineated using the minimum inter‐event time (MIT) criterion, using eight values in the range of 1 h – 24 h. Within events, no‐rain periods were defined as corresponding to rainfall rates R < 0.1 mm/h or R < 0.2 mm/h (both less than typical wet‐canopy evaporation rates during rainfall). In this way, rainfall events were subdivided into rain and no‐rain periods. Intermittency was characterised using two measures: the fraction of rainless time within an event, and the duration of the longest rainless period. Events identified using a minimum inter‐event time (MIT) of 24 h included on average 9.4 h of contiguous no‐rain time (47.5% of the mean event duration), and only 6.8 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 51.1% for these events. Events defined with MIT = 6 h (a value commonly adopted in the literature) exhibited a mean of 1.53 h of no‐rain and 9.04 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 13.9% for these events for R < 0.1 mm/h, but reached 39.2% if no‐rain periods were taken as those of <0.2 mm/h. The maximum contiguous no‐rain period for events defined using MIT = 6 h was 10.9 h from an event of 12.6 h duration, and this represents 86.5% of the event duration. Results demonstrate that smaller, shorter, and less intense rainfall events tend to exhibit higher IERI than larger, longer, and more intense events. IERI is relevant to the understanding of land surface processes. Information on the metric properties of IERI in different rainfall types (convective and stratiform) and rainfall climates (arid, maritime, and wet tropical) may prove to have significance for diverse studies in land surface hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
For the purpose of verifying compliance with the CTBT seismic monitoring is one of the four techniques used by the IDC. In order to improve the accuracy of the automatic and the reviewed bulletin epicenter locations the IDC uses SASC for the IMS seismic stations. SASC determination is a straightforward calculation done by comparing for selected events the azimuth and slowness from the waveform processing using array techniques to the theoretical values based on the event locations and the velocity model.The main problem, however, is to build a set of reference events, whose locations are accurate enough and not based on information from the stations to be calibrated. A reference event list assumed to meet this requirement is the Gamma bulletin, which was collected since 1993 and was compiled in the framework of the GSETT-3. In this work calculation of SASC for regional to teleseismic distances (up to 30 degrees) was performed for 11 IMS primary arrays. The calculation was done using Pg, Pn, P, Sg, Sn, and S phases based on the detection list obtained from the pIDC and the Gamma bulletin for 6 years (1993–1999). The number of Gamma events varies from several hundreds for some arrays (BRAR) to several tens of thousands for others (i.e. ARCES, ILAR). Due to the fact that the Gamma bulletin is purely voluntary, the coverage is non-uniform both in time and in space and the location accuracy is non-uniform. This drawback can be overcome by encouraging signatory states to submit quality Gamma bulletin data to the IDC. The work presented here can be used as a routine procedure for improving IMS array performance, especially at regional distances. 相似文献