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1.
In this study, we use existing observational datasets to evaluate 20th century climate simulations of the tropical Pacific. The emphasis of our work is decadal variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, which links the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. In observations, this circulation is characterized by equatorward geostrophic volume transport convergence in the interior ocean pycnocline across 9°N and 9°S. Historical hydrographic data indicate that there has been a decreasing trend in this convergence over the period 1953–2001 of about 11 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), with maximum decade-to-decade variations of 7–11 Sv. The transport time series is highly anti-correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, implying that variations in meridional overturning circulation are directly linked to decadal variability and trends in tropical SST. These relationships are explored in 18 model simulations of 20th century climate from 14 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Significant correlation exists between meridional volume transport convergence and tropical SST in the majority of the models over the last half century. However, the magnitude of transport variability on decadal time scales in the models is underestimated while at the same time modeled SST variations are more sensitive to that transport variability than in the observations. The effects of the meridional overturning circulation on SST trends in most the models is less clear. Most models show no trend in meridional transport convergence and underestimate the trend in eastern tropical Pacific SST. The eddy permitting MIROCH model is the only model that reasonably reproduces the observed trends in transport convergence, tropical Pacific SST, and SST gradient along the equator over the last half century. If the observed trends and those simulated in the MIROCH model are ultimately related to greenhouse gas forcing, these results suggest that the Bjerknes feedback, by affecting pycnocline transport convergences, may enhance warming that arises from anthropogenic forcing in the eastern tropical Pacific. 相似文献
2.
利用50 a的SODA资料对1月(冬季)和7月(夏季)印度洋越赤道经向翻转环流的年际变化进行研究。通过对2类典型年份的合成分析指出:1月份正异常年对应的经向翻转环流偏强,向北的经向热输送增加;7月份正异常年对应的经向翻转环流则偏弱,向南的经向热输送减少;1月份和7月份的负异常年皆与其正异常年相反;越赤道经向翻转环流有明显的年际变化,平均周期在4 a左右;经向翻转环流的年际变化和海面风场的变化密切相关。提出了反映1月和7月此环流年际变化的几个指数。 相似文献
3.
4.
基于该系列文章前文研究中构建的海气耦合气候模式和所揭示的北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡机制,针对海气要素对该振荡机制的影响问题进行了重点的探讨。为细致准确的研究北大西洋海洋要素同北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡的关系,有针对性的定义了副极地海区表层密度指数和北大西洋暖流强度指数并对模式结果进行了全面分析。分析结果表明副极地海区表层密度变化领先大西洋径向翻转环流(MOC)变化7 a,北大西洋暖流的变化领先 MOC变化4 a,格陵兰－苏格兰海脊溢流水强度(包括丹麦海峡溢流水和法鲁海峡溢流水,是北大西洋深层水的重要来源)的变化领先 MOC的变化3 a;北大西洋大气要素变化对北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡有非常重要的调制作用,当副极地流环和北大西洋暖流(NAC)达到最强的2 a之前,高纬度地区大气为气旋式环流异常,中纬度地区大气为反气旋式环流异常,海表热通量在大西洋副极地海区是负异常,这都有利于副极地流环和NAC的加强,更多高盐度的北大西洋水进入格陵兰-冰岛-挪威海(GIN)海域,由此可以导致GIN海域表层密度上升,使水体的层结稳定性减弱,有利于深层对流的发生,同时大气变化通过风应力旋度和海表热通量也直接影响GIN海域深层水的生成,进而导致格陵兰－苏格兰海脊溢流水的强度增加。 相似文献
5.
Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China's seas 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas(OCFS-C) is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China's seas has been updated to(1/24)° from the global model with(1/2)°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature(SST) data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth(MLD) and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores(SS) is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value(more than 0.90). Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean. 相似文献
6.
《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2007,54(1):1-21
Regime transitions in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the rate of formation of deep and bottom waters are thought to be sensitive to changes in the freshwater flux at high latitudes. We model convective overturning in the presence of a surface freshwater input using laboratory experiments that are inverted relative to the ocean: we establish an equilibrium circulation forced by differential heating and cooling along the base of a box and perturb this flow by adding a stabilizing saltwater input at the ‘polar’ end of the box. An initially stable layer forms near the source of the salinity anomaly as a ‘polar halocline’. The subsequent circulation is governed largely by the ratio of salinity and thermal buoyancy supply. For small values of this ratio we observe periodic formation and breakdown of the halocline. Larger values of the flux ratio lead to subthermocline intrusions and stable layering laterally throughout the basin, isolating the bulk of the water column from the forcing boundary. The shutdown of deep overturning and formation of a shallow circulation occurs at a salinity buoyancy input of order 0.1 times the rate of loss of thermal buoyancy. This salinity buoyancy is then comparable to the buoyancy that forces the deep sinking plume below the thermocline in steady-state overturning. When the salinity buoyancy flux is removed, the circulation slowly returns to its original state. 相似文献
7.
本文基于常用的统计方法,通过与WOA09观测的海洋溶解氧浓度数据进行比较,定量地评估了9个CMIP5地球系统模式在历史排放试验中海洋溶解氧气候态特征的模拟能力。在海表,由于地球系统模式均能很好地模拟海表温度（SST）,模式模拟的海表溶解氧浓度分布与观测一致,模拟结果无论是全球平均浓度偏差还是均方根误差均接近0,空间相关系数与标准偏差接近1。在海洋中层以及深层这些重要水团所在的区域,各模式的模拟能力则差异较大,尤其在溶解氧低值区（OMZs）所在的500m到1000m,各模式均出现全球平均偏差、均方根误差的极大值以及空间相关系数的极小值。在海洋内部,模式偏差的原因比较复杂。经向翻转环流和颗粒有机碳通量均对模式的偏差有贡献。分析结果表明物理场偏差对溶解氧偏差的贡献较大。一些重要水团,比如北大西洋深水,南极底层水以及北太平洋中层水在极大程度上影响了溶解氧在这些海区的分布。需要指出的是,虽然在海洋内部各模式模拟的溶解氧浓度偏差较大,但是多模式平均结果却能表现出与观测较好的一致性。 相似文献
8.
Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO2 gas exchange (natural flux of CO2) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air–sea flux of CO2. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air–sea flux of CO2, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO2) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean). 相似文献
9.
The low-frequency variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation(MOC) in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated using a Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) product for the period of 1900–2010. A dynamical decomposition method is used in which the MOC is decomposed into the Ekman, external mode, and vertical shear components. Results show that all the three dynamical components contribute to the formation of the seasonal and annual mean shallow MOC in the SCS. The shallow MOC in the SCS consists of two cells: a clockwise cell in the south and an anticlockwise cell in the north; the former is controlled by the Ekman flow and the latter is dominated by the external barotropic flow, with the contribution of the vertical shear being to reduce the magnitude of both cells. In addition, the strength of the MOC in the south is found to have a falling trend over the past century, due mainly to a weakening of the Luzon Strait transport(LST) that reduces the transport of the external component. Further analysis suggests that the weakening of the LST is closely related to a weakening of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a southward shift of the North Equatorial Current(NEC) bifurcation and thus a stronger transport of the Kuroshio east of Luzon. 相似文献
10.
A zonal-average model of the upper branch of the meridional overturning circulation of the southern ocean is constructed and used to discuss the processes – wind, buoyancy, eddy forcing and boundary conditions – that control its strength and sense of circulation. The geometry of the thermocline ‘wedge’, set by the mapping between the vertical spacing of buoyancy surfaces (the stratification) on the equatorial flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and their outcrop at the sea surface, is seen to play a central role by setting the interior large-scale potential vorticity distribution. It is shown that the action of eddies mixing this potential vorticity field induces a residual flow in the meridional plane much as is observed, with upwelling of fluid around Antarctica, northward surface flow and subduction to form intermediate water. Along with this overturning circulation there is a concomitant air-sea buoyancy flux directed in to the ocean. 相似文献
11.
Recent global warming caused by humans and the prediction of a reduced Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation in the future has increased interest in the role of the overturning circulation in climate change. A schematic diagram of the overturning circulation called the “Great Ocean Conveyor Belt,” published by Wallace Broecker in 1987, has become a popular image that emphasizes the inter-connected ocean circulation and the northward flux of heat in the Atlantic. This seems a good time to review the development of the conveyor belt concept and summarize the history of overturning circulation schematics.In the 19th century it was thought that symmetric overturning circulation cells were located on either side of the equator in the Atlantic. As new hydrographic measurements were obtained, circulation schematics in the early 20th century began to show the inter-hemispheric overturning circulation in the Atlantic. In the second half of the 20th century schematics showed the global ocean overturning circulation including connections between the Atlantic and the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Some recent schematics of the overturning circulation show its complexities, but as more information is included these schematics have also become complex and not as easy to understand as the simple Broecker 1987 version. However, these complex schematics, especially the quantitative ones, represent valuable syntheses of our developing knowledge of the overturning circulation. 相似文献
12.
北太平洋海表温度及各贡献因子的变化 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用1958年1月至2007年12月SODA海洋上层温度的月平均资料,基于海温变化方程和统计分析方法,分析了北太平洋海表面温度(SST)异常特征及各局地因子贡献比例的变化。结果表明,伴随着1976/1977风场最强中心位置的南北移动,形成了两个北太平洋SST年际-年代际变化的异常中心:一个是位于30°N附近的副热带海盆内区,SST异常主要受风应力强度的主导;一个是位于40°N附近的副热带和副极地环流交汇区,SST异常主要受风应力旋度的位置即风场位置的影响。在副热带海盆内区,最强降温发生在1978-1982年,SST异常的主要局地贡献因子为海表热通量和经向平流,二者所占比例和约为50%~60%,均为同相增温或降温作用,余项所占比例约为20%~50%。在副热带和副极地环流交汇区,海盆内区和西部边界区的SST异常的跃变时间同为1975年,但是内区的垂直混合项的跃变时间早于西部5年左右。SST异常的主要贡献因子为海表热通量和经向平流,但在1983-1988年海温强降温期间,经向平流项贡献大于海表热通量项的贡献。两个区域的垂直混合项均为降温贡献,虽然量值小却显示出很强的年代际变化信号。平流项中经向平流最大,垂直平流最小。 相似文献
13.
The scaling law linking the strength of the meridional overturning to the surface meridional temperature gradient is re-examined in two ocean general circulation models at coarse resolution in an idealised single-hemisphere setting. Two sets of results are presented, where the surface meridional temperature gradient is decreased either by increasing the northernmost temperature and keeping the equator temperature fixed, or by decreasing the equator temperature and keeping the northernmost temperature fixed. The maximum of the meridional overturning first increases and then decreases when the northernmost temperature is gradually increased, whereas the maximum overturning decreases monotonically when the equator temperature is decreased. No scaling law can be derived when the northernmost temperature is increased, whereas a 2/3 power law is found when the temperature is decreased at the equator. The behaviour of the overturning is strongly influenced by the vigour and, particularly, the spatial patterns of convection, which vary substantially between the two sets and which control the horizontal and vertical density gradients at high latitudes. 相似文献
14.
全球变暖"停滞"研究综述 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
全球变暖"停滞"现象自提出以来,备受关注,是近来全球气候变化领域的热点问题。全球变暖停滞主要表现为全球平均表面温度在1998-2012年增温速率明显偏低。除此之外,大气环流和海洋环流也发生了显著改变。在归因分析方面,很多科学家认为太平洋年代际振荡发挥了重要作用,另外的可能因素还有大西洋经向翻转环流和南极底层水的改变等。然而,由于观测资料在时间一致性和空间覆盖区域等方面存在偏差,从而为全球变暖停滞增添了诸多不确定性。但气候系统内部变率发生改变,导致深层海洋吸收热量增多是众多科学家的共识。尝试解答变暖停滞研究中的不确定性问题,观测资料的丰富和完善是必要条件。 相似文献
15.
Recent changes in the North Atlantic circulation simulated with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Robert Marsh Beverly A. de Cuevas Andrew C. Coward Julien Jacquin Joel J.-M. Hirschi Yevgeny Aksenov A.J. George Nurser Simon A. Josey 《Ocean Modelling》2009,28(4):226-239
Three eddy-permitting (1/4°) versions and one eddy-resolving (1/12°) version of the OCCAM ocean model are used to simulate the World Ocean circulation since 1985. The first eddy-permitting simulation has been used extensively in previous studies, and provides a point of reference. A second, improved, eddy-permitting simulation is forced in the same manner as the eddy-resolving simulation, with a dataset based on a blend of NCEP re-analysis and satellite data. The third eddy-permitting simulation is forced with a different dataset, based on the ERA-40 re-analysis data. Inter-comparison of these simulations in the North Atlantic clarifies the relative importance of resolution and choice of forcing dataset, for simulating the mean state and recent variability of the basin-scale circulation in that region. Differences between the first and second eddy-permitting simulations additionally reveal an erroneous influence of sea ice on surface salinity, dense water formation, and the meridional overturning circulation. Simulations are further evaluated in terms of long-term mean ocean heat transport at selected latitudes (for which hydrographic estimates are available) and sea surface temperature errors (relative to observations). By these criteria, closest agreement with observations is obtained for the eddy-resolving simulation. In this simulation, there is also a weak decadal variation in mid-latitudes, with heat transport strongest, by around 0.2 PW, in the mid-1990s. In two of the eddy-permitting simulations, by contrast, heat transport weakens through the study period, by up to 0.4 PW in mid-latitudes. The most notable changes of heat transport in all simulations are linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre, rather than changes in the meridional overturning circulation. It is concluded that recent changes in the structure of mid-latitude heat transport in the North Atlantic are more accurately represented if eddies are explicitly resolved. 相似文献
16.
Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense
diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the
mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance
the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell
in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the
vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited
to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation
for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these
observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity
is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. 相似文献
17.
引潮力对海洋环流模式的影响 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The eight main tidal constituents have been implemented in the global ocean general circulation model with approximate 1° horizontal resolution.Compared with the observation data,the patterns of the tidal amplitudes and phases had been simulated fairly well.The responses of mean circulation,temperature and salinity are further investigated in the global sense.When implementing the tidal forcing,wind-driven circulations are reduced,especially those in coastal regions.It is also found that the upper cell transport of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) reduces significantly,while its deep cell transport is slightly enhanced from 9×106m3/s to 10×106 m3/s.The changes of circulations are all related to the increase of a bottom friction and a vertical viscosity due to the tidal forcing.The temperature and salinity of the model are also significantly affected by the tidal forcing through the enhanced bottom friction,mixing and the changes in mean circulation.The largest changes occur in the coastal regions,where the water is cooled and freshened.In the open ocean,the changes are divided into three layers:cooled and freshened on the surface and below 3 000 m,and warmed and salted in the middle in the open ocean.In the upper two layers,the changes are mainly caused by the enhanced mixing,as warm and salty water sinks and cold and fresh water rises;whereas in the deep layer,the enhancement of the deep overturning circulation accounts for the cold and fresh changes in the deep ocean. 相似文献
18.
The Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and currents are simulated over the north Indian Ocean, during the onset phase of southwest monsoon for the three years 1994, 1995, and 1996, using daily Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) winds and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) heat fluxes as forcings in the 2½ layer thermodynamic numerical ocean model. The results are discussed for the 30-day period from 16 May to 13 June for all the three years, to determine the ocean state during the onset phase of SW monsoon. The maximum variability in the simulated SST is found along the Somali coast, Indian coasts, and equatorial regions. The maximum SST in the North Arabian Sea is found to be greater than 30°C and minimum SST in the west equatorial region is 25°C during the onset phase of all three years. Model SSTs are in agreement with Reynolds SST. SST gradients in the north-south as well as in the east-west directions, west of 80°E are found to change significantly prior to the onset. It can be inferred from the study that the SST gradient of 2.5°C/2000 km is seen due north and due west of the region 2° - 7°S, 60° - 65°E, about 8 to 10 days prior to the arrival of SW monsoon near Kerala coast. Upper and lower layer circulation fields do not show prominent interannual variability. 相似文献
19.
A coupled air–sea general circulation model is used to simulate the global circulation. Different parameterizations of lateral mixing in the ocean by eddies, horizontal, isopycnal, and isopycnal plus eddy advective flux, are compared from the perspective of water mass transformation in the Southern Ocean. The different mixing physics imply different buoyancy equilibria in the surface mixed layer, different transformations, and therefore a variety of meridional overturning streamfunctions. The coupled‐model approach avoids strong artificial water mass transformation associated with relaxation to prescribed mixed layer conditions. Instead, transformation results from the more physical non‐local, nonlinear interdependence of sea‐surface temperature, air–sea fluxes, and circulation in the model's atmosphere and ocean. The development of a stronger mid‐depth circulation cell and associated upwelling when eddy fluxes are present, is examined. The strength of overturning is diagnosed in density coordinates using the transformation framework. 相似文献
20.
Effects of the presence of a circumpolar region on buoyancy-driven circulation are investigated by using an idealized numerical ocean model. Comparison of circulation and meridional density (heat) transport is made between a closed ocean and an ocean with a cyclic gap near its southern boundary. The presence of the circumpolar region leads to disconnection of the meridional overturning across the circumpolar region. And the circumpolar eastward flow reaches the bottom of the ocean. It is essential for this that the pycnocline is deeper than the bottom of the gap. Since the amount of the mass transported northward must return southward at the levels deeper than the bottom of the cyclic gap, the weak stratification, hence weak vertical geostrophic shear, at the deeper levels leads to inactive communication across the circumpolar region. Meridional heat transport across the circumpolar region is made mainly by horizontal diffusion for the ocean with the cyclic gap, while the contribution of the advection is dominant for the closed ocean. Sensitivity of meridional heat transport to change in horizontal diffusivity is studied. The meridional heat transport for the ocean with the cyclic gap is more sensitive than for the closed ocean. The change in heat transport occurs not only in the circumpolar region but also in the rest of the ocean. It is suggested that subgrid scale phenomena, especially mesoscale eddies, in the circumpolar region controls the whole ocean to a great extent. 相似文献