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1.
This paper reports our review of research on domestic climate extremes conducted by US physical geographers over the past 15?years. Sections cover extremes in wind, precipitation, lightning, and temperature, as well as derivative climate extremes (droughts, floods, and storm surges). Themes considered include: the spatial and temporal distribution of the climate extreme; its implications for our understanding of the physical processes that produce it; the spatial and temporal distributions of the extreme’s economic and human costs; lessons for assessment, policy, and management; and scale. We conclude that most of the works reviewed inadequately address the human basis of vulnerability to climate extremes, and encourage physical geographers to work with colleagues from the other subfields of geography and the social sciences to develop the holistic understanding of vulnerability needed to effectively adapt to the more extreme climate projected under climate change. 相似文献
2.
全球环境变化对我国区域发展的可能影响评述 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
随着环境问题的日益突出,全球环境变化的区域响应已成为我国全球变化研究的优先领域和热点问题之一。国内外学者就全球问题与区域问题的结合达成共识:全球性问题的研究需要由区域工作来完成;区域性研究必须体现全球性问题。本文介绍了全球变化对区域发展影响评价的基本方法,特别是IPCC评价报告中采用的区域脆弱性、敏感性评价方法;概述了我国未来50年环境变化的可能情景;从自然生态系统变化、水资源短缺、沙漠化、农业生产等方面评述了全球环境变化对我国区域发展可能影响研究的进展和成果,最后指出了全球变化区域响应研究存在的问题,并对其发展方向作了展望。 相似文献
3.
岩溶地区人类活动的水文效应研究现状及展望 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
在全球气候变化背景下,加之岩溶生态系统的脆弱性及敏感性,地表水与地下水交换迅速,岩溶水动力系统对人类活动及其造成的生态环境变化反馈敏感。岩溶地区人类活动导致的植被退化、石漠化等环境问题已对岩溶地区的水文水循环过程造成了严重影响,水资源问题已成为岩溶地区发展的重要限制因素。本文在对岩溶生态系统及水文环境特性分析的基础上,从土地利用变化的水文效应,人类活动对降水—径流的影响、岩溶水资源的开发利用、岩溶地下水污染及水文模型在岩溶地区的应用等方面,概述了岩溶地区人类活动水文效应的相关研究现状与不足,总结了未来岩溶地区人类活动水文效应的5个研究趋势,并探讨了研究中的重点及难点问题。 相似文献
4.
Marc Pons Peter A Johnson Martí Rosas Eric Jover 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(12):2474-2494
One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones. 相似文献
5.
Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental domains, identified using specific environmental correlates of floristic composition, into conservation strategies, using the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa as a case study. The environmental domains offer an approach to conservation that conserves diversity under current and future climates, recognising that the species constituting diversity may change through time. We mapped current locations of domains by identifying their positions in a multi-dimensional environmental space using a non-hierarchical iterative k-means clustering algorithm. Their future locations were explored using an ensemble of future climate scenarios. The HadCM2 and GFDL2.1 models represented the extreme ranges of the models. The magnitude of change in each environmental domain was calculated using Euclidean distances to determine areas of greatest and least stability for each future climate projection. Domains occurring in the savanna biome increase at the expense of domains occurring in the grassland biome, which has significant negative consequences for the species rich grasslands. The magnitude of change maps represents areas of changed climatic conditions or edaphic disjunctions. The HadCM2 model predicted the greatest overall magnitude of change across the province. Species with specific soil requirements may not be able to track changing climatic conditions. A vulnerability framework was developed that incorporated climatic stability and habitat intactness indices. The mean magnitude of change informed the potential speed of transition of domains between the vulnerability quadrants. The framework informs appropriate conservation actions to mitigate climate change impacts on biodiversity. The study explicitly links floristic pattern and climate variability and provides useful insights to facilitate conservation planning for climate change. 相似文献
6.
The Senegal River Basin (SRB) is a shared watershed in West Africa which includes regions (the upper basin, valley, and delta),
characterized by distinct environmental conditions. An important feature of the Senegal River flow volume historically was its inter-
annual irregularity, which caused a major water resource constrain. This situation has been accentuated during the long-term
drought (1969–1984) in the Sahel zone which highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability.
SRB is undergoing fundamental environmental, hydrologic, and socioeconomic transitions and represents a good illustration of sensitivity
to climatic variations and opportunities for adaptation. This paper aims to study water resources systems under stress from climate
variability and change in the Senegal River Basin. The results show (1) through the compilation of available data, information
and knowledge (sedimentological, climatical, geological, environmental, archeological, etc.), the chronological consequences of climate
change during the past millennium in West Africa, and also (2) an analysis of the recent impacts and vulnerability to climate
change in the SRB and finally (3) the adaptation strategies in the SRB in order to identify and resolve problems associated with
this water scarcity and to address the potential for guaranteed agricultural production in this narrow geographic area. 相似文献
7.
浅析江河源区生态系统脆弱性研究的科学问题 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
长江、黄河源区位于青藏高原腹地,是我国气候变化的敏感区和脆弱区,面对全球气候变化以及我国冰冻圈萎缩的压力,明晰基于冰冻圈变化条件下江河源区生态系统脆弱性的科学问题,是长江、黄河流域生态安全保障及社会经济持续发展的客观要求。在分析江河源区范围、江河源区和我国冰冻圈的关系、目前生态系统脆弱性研究的基本特点的基础上,在全球气候变化和冰冻圈变化的复杂背景下,提出并阐述了江河源区生态系统脆弱性研究的5个重要科学问题：（1）脆弱性概念的延伸和拓展;（2）气候系统的非线性作用;（3）脆弱性评价的时空尺度;（4）脆弱性评价的临界阈值;（5）脆弱性评价的界面链接等。 相似文献
8.
Kate Manzo 《Area》2010,42(1):96-107
This paper explores the iconography of climate change in contemporary climate action campaigns in the UK. I aim to show how sample images are simultaneously scientific denotations of global warming and cultural connotations of danger and vulnerability. I further demonstrate that while similar images are associated with different agendas and geographical visions, they attach to a shared discourse of vulnerability that has Western (colonial) roots. The paper concludes with an overview of possible ways for climate action campaigns to effectively convey their political messages without recycling colonial visions of the world. 相似文献
9.
全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价 总被引：25，自引：4，他引：21
未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。 相似文献
10.
将社会学研究思想扩充到自然科学研究,用个体行为的局部微观感应和认知来推演资源环境这一极具自然－社会－经济系统综合性的全局宏观规律,是一个值得探讨的研究方向。利用社会问卷调查方法以及文献综述,结合已有的自然科学研究成果,通过长江黄河源区案例分析,获得以下结论：（1）江河源区气候变暖,雪灾等灾害气候增加。（2）包括草地围栏、灭鼠、人工草地、定居畜棚建设等草地生态系统的人工正向干预不断增强,草地生态系统质量局部改善。（3）降水量变化增减不明显,但植被生长季节、尤其夏季干化趋势增强、水资源呈现减少的趋势。（4）气候变化构成了草地退化的主要驱动因素,草地鼠害以及采挖虫草、不合理放牧等人类活动对草地退化的影响逐渐突显。对此,有以下启示：（1）江河源区气候变化已是基本事实,源区生态系统特有的脆弱性和敏感性,以及气候变化减缓空间有限性,凸显了适应科学研究和适应能力构建的战略性和迫切性。（2）尽管气候变化构成了源区草地退化的主要驱动因素,但调整该区不合理的人类活动对草地退化的减缓同等重要。（3）草地生态系统的人工正向干预是维护草地生态系统功能的重要手段,是较长时期内草地生态系统质量改善的有效途径。 相似文献
11.
Kevin Keenan 《Urban geography》2013,34(3):357-377
There is increasing evidence that people interpret their risk from environmental hazards through places—such as urban neighborhoods. At the same time, heightened levels of mobility are theorized to be leading to a so-called “placeless society” and possibly nullifying theories of locality-based risk perception. The purpose of this study is to combine environmental risk-hazards scholarship with work in urban geography to explore the following question: is perception of vulnerability to terrorism influenced by place and mobility, and if it is, what is the relationship? Drawing on interviews with 93 householders in Boston, Massachusetts, I demonstrate that people perceive vulnerability via understanding the transportation environment as a place—not simply a conduit—and that these perceptions reflect larger societal structures, such as wealth and gender disparities, that combine with (im)mobility and human subjectivity to amplify or attenuate a person’s sense of vulnerability. These findings bring an understanding of subjective experience to the geography of transportation systems, which has not yet been theorized within the urban disaster literature. 相似文献
12.
Tristan D. Pearce James D. Ford Gita J. Laidler Barry Smit Frank Duerden Mishak Allarut Mark Andrachuk Steven Baryluk rew Dialla Pootoogoo Elee Annie Goose Theo Ikummaq Eric Joamie Fred Kataoyak Eric Loring Stephanie Meakin Scott Nickels Kip Shappa Jamal Shirley & Johanna Wandel 《Polar research》2009,28(1):10-27
Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic. 相似文献
13.
Current, spatially explicit, and high-resolution assessments of population vulnerability to climate change and variability in developing countries can be difficult to create due to lack of data or financial and technical capacity constraints. We propose a comparative, multiple-approach framework to assess the spatial variation of population vulnerability to climatic changes using several high-resolution variables related to climate, topography, and socioeconomic conditions with an objective to detect the spatial variability of climate vulnerability in Nepal. Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to frequent climatic hazards and poor socio-economic capacity. We used a climate vulnerability index (CVI) approach to derive climate vulnerability maps at the one-kilometer resolution and test an additive and a principal components-based composite method of data aggregation. In this work, we attempt to answer three questions. 1) How do different methods of assessment inform the spatial variation of the climate vulnerability in Nepal? 2) How do different variables interact to shape climate vulnerability in Nepal? 3) What proportions of the population in Nepal are vulnerable to climatic disasters and why? Our analysis uncovered significant spatial variations in population vulnerability to climate change across Nepal, with the highest vulnerability being experienced by the High Mountain region followed by the regions in the lower elevations. We find that although the lack of adaptive capacity is the biggest cause of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal, a resilient community is shaped by both biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. By performing an iterative sensitivity analysis of our thirteen variables both at the aggregate level (nationally) as well as at the more disaggregated (physiographic region) level, we contribute to identifying important, multi-scalar driving factors for vulnerability that can be employed as leverage points for lowering vulnerability at different scales. After performing analyses at multiple regions, we conclude that region-specific variable selection is needed for more detailed assessments and in order to prioritize adaptation strategies at scales that go beyond the hierarchy of administrative divisions. 相似文献
14.
气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。 相似文献
15.
16.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition. 相似文献
18.
Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition. 相似文献
19.
湿地脆弱性评价是近年来湿地科学及可持续性科学领域的热点和前沿.湿地脆弱性评价研究经历了从湿地脆弱性特征定性评价,到湿地脆弱性定量评价,再到气候变化下湿地脆弱性评价的发展历程.首先,在对湿地脆弱性概念归纳总结的基础上,提出湿地脆弱性是在自然环境和人为压力下湿地退化的程度和可能性.其次,定性介绍了水土流失、水热分配不均、湿地退化等主要脆弱性特征表现;并以脆弱性评价的基本步骤为主线论述了模型法、特征法、综合指数法、EFI评价法、空间分析法等主要研究方法;同时,从不同角度概述了气候变化背景下的湿地脆弱性,总结了湿地水文景观分类法、生物完整性指标法、模型法、空间分析等评价方法.最后,指出湿地脆弱性研究中存在的概念不统一、评价标准不一致、评价指标范围较狭窄、动态研究偏少、定量评价的不确定性等主要问题,提出了完善评价体系、加强动态研究和国内对气候变化下湿地脆弱性的定量研究以及不确定性分析、脆弱性评价与决策管理衔接等湿地脆弱性未来研究的重点. 相似文献
20.
Green infrastructure has recently risen to international prominence for its purported capacity to enhance urban sustainability, and particularly to modulate ambient temperatures in the context of climate change. We assess whether residents in a sub-tropical Australian city perceive green infrastructure as an effective climate adaptation response for reducing vulnerability to heat stress. Gold Coast City has pursued urban densification policies, such as reducing block sizes and increasing building heights, to accommodate rapid population growth. Little attention has been given to the combined impact of local heat island effects and global climate change upon lower-income residents in the city's suburban fringe, including rising energy costs associated with cooling homes. The study has three aims: to assess whether social disadvantage is associated with (1) concern about climate change impacts; (2) perceptions about the potential of green infrastructure to offer potential climate-adaptive benefits; and (3) the desire for more urban greening in a working class suburb. We used a mail-back survey to elicit information related to cooling dwellings, awareness of, and concern about, climate change impacts, perceptions of the benefits of green infrastructure, and desire for more urban greening. Results indicate that despite their vulnerability to heat stress, comparatively disadvantaged residents are no more concerned about climate change; nor are they any more inclined to encourage local government to enhance neighbourhood greenery. These residents are, if anything, less likely to perceive benefits of urban greening. Our findings indicate that cultivating support for green infrastructure in disadvantaged neighbourhoods will require parallel efforts to redress inequality. 相似文献